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Markets:
It’s been
another slow session as the lack of key economic releases and limited news flow
kept the price action pretty rangebound.
The US
Dollar continues to get some support from higher Treasury yields and if the
recent days is something to go by, we might see some more legs higher in the US
session.
Gold erased
all of the yesterdays’ decline and it’s now trading right near the all-time
high. It’s been ignoring the rise in real yields, so it will be interesting to
see who gives in.
In the equity
markets, we continue to see some consolidation around the highs as the markets
are probably looking for catalysts to push into new highs and for now are
getting pressures by higher yields.
Unfortunately,
we have to wait until Thursday to get some market moving data with the releases
of the Flash US PMIs and the US Jobless Claims.
For now, it’s
more about capital preservation until we get to one of the most important
events of the year in November, that is the US election. There’s a good
argument that the markets have been already positioning into a Trump victory.
Time will
tell.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The lack of catalysts
recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in
momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of
November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US
elections.
There’s been also a good
argument that the markets are already positioning for a Trump victory and that
should translate in USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and
less rate cuts expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync
with this view.
On the CAD side, the latest
Canadian CPI missed expectations and sealed the
50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting with the market seeing now a 99% probability
from 48% before the inflation report. The market then sees another rate cut of
at least 25 bps in December and roughly four more in 2025.
USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD eventually bounced back above the 1.3785 level and extended the
rally into the 1.3850 level. We are now near a key resistance zone.
This is where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the 1.3860 resistance to
position for a drop back into the 1.36 support. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
new highs.
USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the break above the 1.3785 level that led to a more bullish
price action into the key resistance. There’s not much else we can glean from
this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.
USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum.
The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further upside,
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to target a drop
back into the 1.3785 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we have the BoC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the Flash US PMIs,
and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the
Canadian retail sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
European indices are also all in negative territory, with the DAX also down by 0.1% after a decent open earlier. Other major indices in the region are down some 0.6% to 0.8% with the negative mood also reflected in US futures. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.6% currently.
In the bigger picture, it’s a case of shaving some off the top for equities. And investors can look to the bond market as a likely reason for that. 10-year Treasury yields are up again today, touching 4.21% currently.
The technical focus here is starting to get traders to stand up and take notice. And that means broader markets are also going to have to pay attention to that too.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The dollar is keeping more mixed with light changes being observed overall. There’s not much appetite or follow through, as traders are keeping a watchful eye on the bond market for anything. USD/JPY is one to pay attention to as such but is running up against a key resistance region as outlined here.
Besides that, all the other major currencies are stuck in narrower ranges on the day. The antipodeans are up slightly but it’s not really saying a lot after the fall yesterday. AUD/USD is up 0.3% to 0.6678 but is still keeping below its own 100-day moving average of 0.6695.
Just be wary though that the risk mood is starting to shift a little with US futures now trending lower. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with 10-year Treasury yields keeping higher at around 4.21%.
That might eventually lead to some spillover moves in FX later on in the day.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The lack of catalysts
recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in
momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of
November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US
elections.
There’s been also a good
argument that the markets are already positioning for a Trump victory and that
should translate in USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and
less rate cuts expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync
with this view.
On the GBP side, we got the
UK CPI report last week where the data missed
expectations across the board and prompted the market to expect another 25 bps
cut in December. In 2025, the market sees roughly four more rate cuts.
GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is now trading below the 1.30 handle although the pair remains
in a consolidation just beneath the key level. We are now getting close to the
major trendline where we can expect the buyers to
step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 1.27 handle next.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum.
If the price gets there we can expect the sellers to lean on it to position for
new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish
bets into the 1.32 handle.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with kind of a range between the
1.2972 low and the 1.30 handle as resistance.
The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to
target a rally into the downward trendline. The red line define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is pretty empty on the data front with market moving releases scheduled
for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the Flash UK and US PMIs,
and the US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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