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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gains fade as markets digest Trump rally shooting 0 (0)

Headlines:

Markets:

  • NZD lags on the day
  • European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
  • US 10-year yields up 3.9 bps to 4.225%
  • Gold up 0.3% to $2,418.40
  • WTI crude down 0.1% to $82.10
  • Bitcoin up 2.7% to $62,460

The main story to start the week came over the weekend, that being the assassination attempt on former president Trump. The incident rebuffed the narrative of Trump winning his re-election bid and the betting odds translated somewhat to markets as well.

The dollar opened with a minor gap higher but saw that advance fade in European morning trade. Meanwhile, Treasury yields opened higher as well but are being kept in check during the session.

USD/JPY traded to a high of 158.43 in Asia but is now settling closer to 158.00 with large option expiries seen at the figure level. Likewise, EUR/USD also has large expiries pulling the pair close to 1.0900 after its opening gap lower near 1.0885.

There wasn’t too much significant action in major currencies, with the dollar still looking shaky after last week’s losses.

Elsewhere, European stocks are weighed lower as the EU is to meet to discuss fiscal plans. US futures gradually nudged higher though, continuing the good form in the last two weeks. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% on the day with more bank earnings slipping in.

Coming up later, Fed chair Powell will be making an appearance so that will offer something for traders to be wary about to start the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Forex Expo Dubai 2024 Announces Emirates as Official Airline Partner 0 (0)

Forex Expo Dubai 2024 is thrilled to announce Emirates as the Official Airline Partner for this year’s event. Scheduled to take place from October 7th to 8th at the iconic Dubai World Trade Centre, the Expo promises to be the largest gathering of global forex leaders, traders, and innovators in the online trading industry.

Premier Venue in the Heart of Dubai

The Dubai World Trade Centre, situated in the vibrant heart of Dubai, will serve as the venue for Forex Expo Dubai 2024. Known for its state-of-the-art facilities, the Centre provides an exceptional space for networking and exploring emerging trends and opportunities in the forex market. Dubai’s reputation as a hub for luxury, business, and innovation makes it the perfect destination for this international event.

Experiencing the Finest Hospitality

Attendees can look forward to experiencing Dubai’s finest hospitality, with access to top-tier hotels, resorts, and spas conveniently located near the venue. The Dubai World Trade Centre is easily accessible from both Dubai International Airport and Al Maktoum International Airport, ensuring a smooth and comfortable journey for all participants.

Exclusive Travel Offer with Emirates

In collaboration with Emirates, Forex Expo Dubai 2024 is pleased to offer an exclusive travel deal for all attendees. As the Official Airline Partner, Emirates is offering special rates to ensure a seamless travel experience.

· Promo Code: EVE6FRX

· 10% off on Tickets

· Travel Validity: October 2, 2024, to October 13, 2024

To take advantage of this offer, attendees can follow these simple steps:

1. Visit the Emirates website and select “Book a flight.”

2. Click on “Advanced Search.”

3. Enter your destination and travel dates.

4. Type in the promotional code EVE6FRX.

5. Complete the booking by paying online or at the nearest Emirates office.

First Speaker Lineup: Industry Leaders and Visionaries

Forex Expo Dubai 2024 is also thrilled to announce its initial lineup of speakers, comprising esteemed industry leaders and visionaries. These experts will share profound insights and expertise, offering invaluable perspectives on the forex market. Among the first confirmed speakers are:

1. Yiannis Papacharalampous, COO, GVD Markets

2. Yasser Mansour, Key Accounts Manager, JustMarkets

3. Ali Sharifazadeh, Chief Market Analyst, Pipwsie

4. Kevin Gibbs, Senior Presentation Expert, xChief

5. Mubasher Saeed, Chief Commercial Officer, PrimeX Broker

6. Pavel Spirin, Chief Executive Officer, RS Global Ltd

7. Simarjeet Baweja, Chief Investment Officer, Aetram

8. Yasaman Pazooki, Global Outreach Director, Opofinance Ltd

9. George Miltiadous, Chief Executive Officer, WeTrade

10. Michael Barbour, Sales Director, Traders‘ Hub

11. Danny Salman, Senior Market Analyst, MultiBank Group

12. Razan Hilal, Market Analyst, FOREX.com

13. Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst, GTC Group

14. Sergey Ryzhavin, Head of B2Copy Project, B2Broker

15. Viktoria S, Chief Executive Officer, PSP Angels Ltd

16. Zilal El Joulani, Chief Strategy Officer, River Prime Ltd

17. Hormoz Faryar, Head of Institutional sales MENA, ATFX

18. Javier Hertfelder, Co-Chief Executive Officer, FXStreet

19. Fadi Reyad, Chief Market Strategist, Moneta Markets

Joining the Forex Expo Dubai 2024

Forex Expo Dubai 2024 invites all forex enthusiasts to join this premier event and take advantage of the exclusive travel offer. Don’t miss the opportunity to be part of the largest forex event of the year in one of the world’s most dynamic cities.

For more information and to register for the event: https://theforexexpo.com/

About Forex Expo Dubai 2024

Forex Expo Dubai 2024 is the premier event for the online trading community, attracting thousands of attendees from around the world. The event offers a comprehensive platform for networking, education, and business development, featuring top Sponsors, insightful speakers, and engaging side events.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Powell speech the main event to watch to start the week 0 (0)

Unfortunately, I reckon we might get a repeat performance to his comments last week in Congress. Sure, there was the US CPI report in between that and now. But I don’t think Powell will choose to rock the boat again today. It will be too early to be that confident on the inflation outlook, or at least to not be explicit about it.

He might acknowledge last week’s report as being one in the right direction but the overall progress remains gradual. There’s still time before committing to a move in September, so there is little to gain by preempting that at this point in time.

Once again, it’ll likely be a case of what Powell doesn’t say is what might matter more for markets.

September is pretty much fully priced in now while traders are seeing some ~63 bps of rate cuts for the year.

He will be due to speak in an interview later at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. at 1600 GMT with the event to carry on until 1730 GMT.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The RBNZ weighed on the Kiwi 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November.

Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment.

The NZD, on the other hand,
keeps on being supported against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on
sentiment as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the
Fed without sending recessionary signals.

On the monetary policy
front, the RBNZ policy decision weighed on the Kiwi last week as
the central bank changed slightly its language to a more dovish leaning which
increased the odds of a rate cut at the next meeting as the market is now
assigning a 53% probability for such a move.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD couldn’t extend the gains following the bounce on the strong support zone around the 0.6050 level last week as the
surprisingly dovish RBNZ decision weighed on the Kiwi. If the price falls back
to the support zone, we can expect the buyers to step in again, while the
sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into new lows.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a range now between the 0.6150 resistance and the 0.6050
support. There’s not much to do here and the market participants will likely
keep on “playing the range” until we get a breakout on either side.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the recent catalysts that eventually led to a rangebound price action. This
week we don’t have much on the calendar but the New Zealand Q2 CPI report on
Wednesday will be something to watch as a soft report might increase the odds
of an August rate cut. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington,
D.C. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales report. On Wednesday, we have the New
Zealand Q2 CPI and Fed’s Waller speaking. On Thursday, we conclude with the
latest US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The consolidation at the key support continues 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November.

Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment.

The CAD, on the other hand,
keeps on being supported against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on
sentiment as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the
Fed without sending recessionary signals.

On the monetary policy
front, the next big event will be the CPI report tomorrow. We saw another jump
in wage growth in the latest labour market report, so the BoC will likely need
good CPI figures to deliver a rate cut in July. The market is assigning a 75% probability
for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD remains confined in a tight range right at the key 1.36 support zone. That’s where the buyers keep on stepping
in to position for a rally back into the 1.3785 resistance with a better risk
to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the new lows with the 1.35
handle as the first target.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the tight range between 1.3600 and 1.3650 levels. There’s not
much to do here and the market participants will likely keep on “playing the
range” until we get a breakout.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we got a slight breakout in the Asian session but that was faded
quickly in the European session. It’s now just a waiting game until we get a
breakout on either side. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington,
D.C. Tomorrow, we get the Canadian CPI and the US Retail Sales report. On
Wednesday, we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On Thursday, we have the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the Canadian Retail Sales
data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive