Ethereum
keeps on falling and making new lows as the outlook is turning more and more
bearish given the headwinds from global growth and tight monetary policies. All
the positive news eventually gets faded, which is another sign that the big
picture trend remains bearish. Amid this high uncertainty, the technicals can
help with risk management and short-term directional plays.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Ethereum sold
off again but bounced on the previous low around the 1545 level. We can see
that the sellers are leaning on the red 21 moving average, and we
will likely find them again around the 1600 level. A break below the 1545 low
would take the price into the next support at 1400.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the bounce
from the low got rejected at the resistance zone around the 1600 level. This is
where the sellers are piling in with a defined risk above the resistance to
target a break below the low and the 1400 support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and extend the
rally into the 1681 resistance.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
short term market structure is bullish as the price has been printing higher
highs and higher lows. The last higher low is around the 1575 level, so a break
below that level would switch the bullish trend into a bearish one and lead to
more selling pressure.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events. Today is the US
CPI Day, which is expected to show an increase in headline inflation due to
higher energy prices but further disinflation in the core measure. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on
Friday, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Strong
data is likely to tip the market expectations on the more hawkish side and
support the USD, ultimately weighing on Ethereum. On the other hand, weak
readings should have the opposite effect, unless they are very bad, in which
case the recession fears are likely to send Ethereum lower anyway.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• What’s priced in for the Fed outlook ahead of the CPI data today?
• UK July monthly GDP -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected
• Eurozone July industrial production -1.1% vs -0.7% m/m expected
• German government to downgrade GDP forecast for the year, sees contraction of 0.3%
• German economy ministry says current indicators point to weak Q3
• PBOC says will support prices to rise moderately
• China says it has not issued a ban on purchase and/or use of iPhones
• Japan’s Matsuno confirms he will remain as chief Cabinet secretary after the reshuffle
• Putin does not rule out military cooperation with North Korea amid Kim Jong Un’s visit

Markets:

• NZD leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 4.4 bps to 4.308%
• Gold down 0.1% to $1,911.24
• WTI crude up 0.6% to $89.41
• Bitcoin up 0.5% to $26,191

It was a slow session as markets are caught in a bind waiting on the US CPI data to come later.

The dollar was steadier throughout, holding light gains against the major currencies bloc mostly. The ranges for the day are still leaving a lot to be desired though, as traders are awaiting the inflation numbers before firming up any convictions.

GBP/USD did see a slight drop from 1.2485 to a low of 1.2441 during the session, after the UK economy contracted by more-than-expected in July. But price is seen bouncing back to 1.2470 now as we await the main event later today.

Higher bond yields are also something to be wary about, with both European and US bond yields rising. The former is helped by escalating odds of a ECB rate hike for tomorrow while the latter is seeing 10-year yields seeking a potential breakout above 4.30% ahead of the CPI data.

Meanwhile, stocks remain more tepid with European indices posting losses in following the drop in US equities yesterday.

It’s now all about the US CPI data, so let’s see what that has to offer and how it will shape things up before more US data and the ECB decision tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -2.9%
• Market index 182.2 vs 183.6 prior
• Purchase index 143.7 vs 141.9 prior
• Refinance index 367.0 vs 388.1 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.27% vs 7.21% prior

Overall mortgage applications fell in the past week amid mixed activity. Purchases were up last week but the drop in refinancing activity more than made up for that, with the index falling to its lowest level since December last year:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This compares with the growth of 0.4% predicted at the end of April, with the government reportedly now expecting the economy to shrink in Q3 and expand only slightly in Q4 this year. Overall, the government is said to anticipate a contraction of 0.3% for the year.

These forecasts are typically slow to react to the underlying trend but it is fair to say that recession signals are beeping all over the place for Germany. So, ECB.. are ya winning, son?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin
remains rangebound on a key support level as the outlook is turning more and
more bearish given the headwinds from global growth and tight monetary
policies. All the positive news eventually gets faded, which is another sign
that the big picture trend remains bearish. Amid this high uncertainty, the
technicals can help with risk management and short-term directional plays.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin
recently sold off into the key 25231 support where it
bounced soon after. The price then rallied into the red 21 moving average where it
found strong sellers. The bias remains bearish as the price keeps on printing
lower lows into the support, which should eventually lead to a breakout. If the
price breaks above the 21 moving average though, we might see a rally back into
the 28400 resistance, where the sellers will be waiting to sell at even better
prices.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we are
currently trading withing a range between the 25231 support and the 26600
resistance. The best strategy in such instances is to just sit tight and wait
for a breakout, but one can also “play the range” by buying at support and
selling at resistance. A break to the upside should take Bitcoin into the 28400
resistance, while a break to the downside should lead to a selloff into the
21509 support.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a level of interest at 26024. In the short term, we might see a rally into
the 26600 resistance in the price breaks above it, but the sellers are likely
to pile in here with a defined risk above it to target the 25231 support.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events. Today is the US
CPI Day, which is expected to show an increase in headline inflation due to
higher energy prices but further disinflation in the core measure. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on
Friday, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Strong
data is likely to tip the market expectations on the more hawkish side and
support the USD, ultimately weighing on Bitcoin. On the other hand, weak
readings should have the opposite effect, unless they are very bad, in which
case the recession fears are likely to send Bitcoin lower anyway.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.