Dow Jones Futures Technical Analysis and Forecast

• Recent Performance: The Dow Jones Futures (YM1!) has experienced a significant sell-off, moving out of the upper trendline boundary of the long-term channel.
• Past Analysis Point: A previous recommendation was made near the red arrow, indicating an expected rise towards the upper channel line.
• Current Position: Despite my expectations (marked by the blue „X“), the price reversed before reaching the anticipated resistance area, showing even a gerate bearish force.
• Support and Resistance: Key support is identified around 38,000, with potential resistance at 40,000 if the price attempts a recovery.
• Market Outlook: Traders should watch for consolidation within the channel or further breakdown below current levels, indicating more downside potential.

Stay updated with our latest technical analysis and forecast for more insights into the Dow Jones Futures movements. For more information, visit ForexLive.com. Trade at your own risk.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Euro nudges a little lower after the data releases
• Why the markets went into risk-off yesterday?
• Stocks stay on the defensive so far on the session
• BOJ’s Adachi: Will respond if FX moves have material impact on economy, prices
• Germany May Bavaria CPI +2.7% vs +2.5% y/y prior
• Germany June GfK consumer sentiment -20.9 vs -22.5 expected
• France May consumer confidence 90 vs 91 expected
• Eurozone Money Supply M3 Y/Y 1.3% vs. 1.3% expected
• Switzerland May UBS investor sentiment 18.2 vs 17.6 prior
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 24 May -5.7% vs +1.9% prior

Markets:

• USD leads, AUD and NZD lag on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.7%
• US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.571%
• Gold down 0.7% to $2,344.65
• WTI crude up 0.8% to $80.44
• Bitcoin down 0.7% to $67,803

The risk mood is staying more cautious today, after having soured in US trading yesterday. The selloff in bonds was a trigger and that continued a little today, with yields sitting higher across the board.

Equities are pinned down once again while the dollar is slightly bid after some light changes earlier to start the session.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0835 with USD/JPY holding at 157.20 levels after a brief dip to 157.00 at the end of Tokyo trading.

The commodity currencies are the laggards amid the dour risk mood. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both down 0.3% to 0.6628 and 0.6123 respectively.

There wasn’t much else for traders to work with on the economic calendar. German inflation looks to be coming in more or less in line with estimates, but perhaps slightly on the softer side. That said, it doesn’t change up the ECB narrative for next week and the overall outlook for now at least.

In the commodities space, we’re seeing metals drop back with gold down 0.7% to $2,344 and silver retreating back under $32 to $31.90 now. Copper is also easing back, down a little over 1% to under $4.79 per pound.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The second annual Financial Achievements in Markets Excellency awards (FAME) ceremony took place on the 21st of May 2024 in Sandton City, South Africa. These awards have established themselves as a standard for excellence in the financial services space, recognizing some of the top performing companies.

Several of the industry’s leading brands attended the FAME ceremony, following at the conclusion of Day 1 of the Finance Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:24) at the Sandton Convention Centre. A total of thirteen awards were given out, covering several prestigious titles and achievements in Africa in 2024.

FAME – Africa’s Gold Standard of Excellence

The FAME awards have quickly become some of the most sought-after titles, especially in Africa. As the financial services space continues to grow at a breakneck pace, many individuals and companies look at these awards as a stamp of approval and example of who to do business with.

Africa itself has shown extraordinary growth with the retail trading scene taking sizable leaps in recent years. With no sign of slowing down and renewed interest in the continent, reinforced by strong growth potential, favorable demographics, and myriad talent, Africa’s best days in the trading sphere look to be ahead.

Each of the winners of this year’s FAME awards has demonstrated excellence in the financial markets in Africa. These companies have also showcased unparalleled commitment, innovation, and leadership in their respective industries. These awards signal to everyone that these companies are the most reputable for both trading and business.

This year’s winners include the following brands:

Best CFD Broker in Africa – iFX Brokers

Best ECN/STP Broker in Africa – FXView

Best Multi-Asset Broker in Africa – Exness

Fastest Growing Broker in Africa – TradingPro

Best Forex Spreads in Africa – TradingPro

Best IB/Affiliate Program in Africa – XM

Best Trading Experience in Africa – FP Markets

Best Customer Service in Africa – iFX Brokers

Most Trusted Broker in Africa – Exness

Best Copy Trading Broker in Africa – HF Markets

Most Reliable Broker in Africa – ATFX

Most Client-Oriented Broker in Africa – FBS

Best Trading Conditions in Africa – Octa

Fastest Execution Broker in Africa – Bold Prime

Most Innovative Broker in Africa – Amega

All 2024 FAME Winners

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +1.9%
• Market index 190.3 vs 201.9 prior
• Purchase index 138.4 vs 140.0 prior
• Refinance index 463.8 vs 536.9 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.05% vs 7.01% prior

The main cause for the drop in mortgage applications in the past week is a big decline in refinancing activity. It comes after a bit of a bounce in recent weeks. But if anything else, it reaffirms that the housing market is still soft-ish.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Crude oil has been falling
steadily since topping around the $87.50 level following the mutual
retaliations between Iran and Israel. The drop has been kind of a
head-scratcher as the market didn’t respond positively to the global growth
expectations amid China and other major central banks policy easing, improving
PMIs and OPEC+ extending the voluntary production cuts until the end of the
year.

More recently though, crude
oil finally caught a sustained bid triggered by the strong US
PMIs last week and added to the gains yesterday following the strong US
Consumer Confidence report. Looking ahead, positive growth and sentiment
should be tailwinds for the market, but we will need to crack a strong
resistance first to gain some more conviction.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil recently bounced around the bottom of the 80-76 range and extended
the rally following the break of the trendline.
The price is now trading right at the key 80-81 resistance.

This is where the sellers
will likely step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a
drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the resistance with the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level adding some extra confluence.
The price has been ranging between the 80 resistance and the 77 support and it
will be interesting to see if the recent data will be enough to trigger a
breakout to the upside or we keep trading inside this range.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that if this strong bullish momentum remains intact, the first support for
the buyers will be the steep trendline around the 80 level. A break below this
level should provide for a correction into the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
level around the 79 level where we can also find the lower limit of the average
daily range. The sellers will likely increase the bearish bets on a break
below the trendline and target a drop back into the 77 support.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude
the week with the Chinese PMIs and the US PCE report. Note that the OPEC+
meeting will be held on Sunday June 2nd where the group is expected
to extend the voluntary output cuts.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.