With only one day left to go, let’s take a look and what were the best and worst performers in each asset class during the year. Were there any standouts and/or surprises that might catch your eye?

Here’s a look at the major currencies space with the dollar as a benchmark:

• GBP -1.4%
• CNY -2.8%
• EUR -5.7%
• CHF -7.3%
• CAD -8.3%
• AUD -8.7%
• JPY -10.8%
• NZD -10.9%

Upshot: The dollar is king of the hill with the US economy holding up better than its peers. A Trump election win and a more hawkish Fed going into the turn of the year has definitely helped quite significantly as well. 👑

And here’s a look at major indices in Asia, Europe, and the US:

• Nasdaq +29.8%
• S&P 500 +23.8%
• Nikkei +19.2%
• DAX +18.9%
• Hang Seng +17.7%
• CSI 300 +17.3%
• Shanghai Composite +14.3%
• IBEX +14.2%
• Dow Jones +13.0%
• FTSE MIB +12.6%
• Russell 2000 +10.7%
• UK FTSE +5.0%
• CAC 40 -3.0%

Upshot: Tech stocks dominated the scene with Nvidia being the biggest carry and that permeated elsewhere too. French stocks are the worst among the bunch amid political woes with the Paris Olympics also not enough to bolster the economy. 🤖

And here’s a look at the some other major asset classes of interest:

• Cocoa +187.3%
• Bitcoin +118.3%
• Natural gas spot +66.9%
• Ethereum +46.0%
• Gold +26.4%
• Silver +21.4%
• Copper +5.1%
• WTI crude oil +0.4%
• Brent crude oil -3.2%
• Platinum -9.5%
• Soybean -23.0%

Upshot: Bitcoin’s surge to hit six figures is one that will steal the spotlight but gold prices having rallied for ten months out of the year is arguably worth a mention. Will we see more of the same next year? 🚀

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin spoke – Xi says two will move forward hand in hand
• Is Tesla Stock a Buy or Sell?
• China official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) December 2024 PMIs – why the long face?
• USD/JPY under 156.50
• China official December Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 50.3) Services 52.2 (exp 50.2)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1884 (vs. estimate at 7.2832)
• Hackers connected to China’s government successfully breached US Treasury
• South Korean December headline inflation comes in hotter than expected
• Why does China have two sets of PMIs and why are both valuable?
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 31 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

USD/JPY
was a notable mover on the session, continuing its decline during the
US session to fall to lows under 156.40. There was no fresh news or
data from Japan. Trade and interest was thin due to the New Year
holiday approaching.

From
China today we had the official, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS),
PMIs for December. Manufacturing slid a little from November and
disappointed estimates but remained in expansion for the third month
in a row. Non-manufacturing, meanwhile jumped 2.2 points from
November and well ahead of estimates.

Prior
to the PMI data release AUD/USD traded higher (EUR, GBP, NZD all
ticked a little higher) but subsided soon after the data. China 10
year bonds ticked a little higher (yields slipped). Chinese equities
slid.

And that’s it from me for 2024. Have a fun and safe New Year’s Eve everyone!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• China’s President Xi and Russia’s Putin exchange New Year greetings
• Xi, to Putin: China and Russia always move forward hand in hand along the right path of non-alliance, non-confrontation, and not targeting any third party
• Xi, to Putin: China-Russia political mutual trust and strategic coordination are continuously marching to a higher level under the strategic guidance of the two leaders
• Xi, to Putin: China and Russia support each bother’s role as chair of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, contributing significantly to solidarity and cooperation among the Global South.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is at a pivotal point, with its stock showing significant technical bearish signals and soaring valuation ratios. Investors are keen to understand whether Tesla represents a prudent investment opportunity. Here’s an in-depth look at both the technical patterns and fundamental valuation metrics to discern whether Tesla’s stock is a strategic buy or a potential sell.

📉 Tesla’s Technical Analysis: Breaking Bear Flags

The 4-hour trading chart for Tesla reveals a concerning bear flag formation, which typically indicates a continuation of a prior downtrend. Although Tesla’s stock has already retreated approximately 15% from its all-time high, there’s speculation about further downward movements:

• Bear Flag Retest: Tesla’s price could momentarily retest the lower boundary of the recently broken bear flag pattern (which would be a possible short entry, at your consideration… but the stop must not be far, in case it re-enters the channel)
• Potential Downward Leg: Should the retest fail, it might trigger another descent, suggesting that entering short positions might still hold merit, albeit cautiously.

📊 Tesla’s Soaring Valuation: Overpriced Stock?

Tesla’s financial metrics have escalated to potentially unsustainable levels, casting doubts on the stock’s current valuation:

• Skyrocketing P/E Ratio: The Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio has hit an alarming 118.25.
• Increased P/S Ratio: The Price to Sales (P/S) ratio now stands at 15.54.
• Elevated P/B Ratio: The Price to Book (P/B) ratio has surged to 19.8.

These high valuation figures, demonstrated in recent quarters, suggest that Tesla might be overvalued. This overvaluation could pose risks if Tesla’s growth does not align with these inflated metrics, especially in a market full of competitive pressures and potential regulatory challenges.

🚨 Investor Alert: Is Tesla Stock Overvalued?

Investors should exercise caution:

• Monitor Technical Patterns: Keep a close watch on Tesla’s price behavior concerning the bear flag pattern. A failure to sustain levels above this pattern could forecast further declines.
• Evaluate Fundamental Valuations: The inflated ratios should prompt investors to question the sustainability of Tesla’s market price. It’s crucial to assess whether these ratios justify the current or higher stock prices based on Tesla’s growth potential.

🤔 Tesla Investment Decision: Buy or Sell?

• Bearish Technical Signals: The broken bear flag pattern leans towards a bearish outlook, suggesting potential selling opportunities or caution for prospective buyers.
• Concerns Over High Valuation: Tesla’s elevated valuation metrics could deter new investments until more reasonable price corrections occur or fundamentals robustly support such high ratios.

Investors considering Tesla must balance the immediate bearish technical indicators with the long-term potential challenges suggested by the high valuation metrics. For those contemplating an entry, it might be wise to wait for a clearer technical confirmation or a normalization in valuation levels. For current holders, this could be a time to reassess portfolio positions based on risk tolerance and investment horizon.

So, is Tesla’s stock a buy or sell? The answer may lie in a careful blend of technical watchfulness and a critical evaluation of fundamental worth, guiding investors to make a well-informed decision in a volatile market.

No doubt, Tesla’s stock had an amazing run, and long-term investors might still see a bright future. But for those of us playing the medium term game (thinking weeks or months ahead), it might be wise to consider taking some profits off the table. The stock’s price has climbed quite a bit, and it might be due for a breather

Of course, nobody has a crystal ball, I sure don’t, and Tesla could keep soaring. It might even decide to revisit that ATH area again (but then again, I would be even more careful than now). For me, it’s always smart to keep a close eye on the charts and see how the price action unfolds at this important juncture. Keep an eye of that bear flag, IMHO.

Ultimately, whether you’re bullish or bearish on Tesla, staying informed and making decisions that align with your investment goals is key. Happy investing with TSLA stock in 2025, it will not be boring with Trump and his BFF Elon Musk, their tweets and their moves. Visit ForexLive.com for developments, our opinions and different views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• China official December Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 50.3) Services 52.2 (exp 50.2)

In brief:

Manufacturing PMI 50.1

• slightly down from 50.3 in November
• third consecutive month of expansion
• fell short of the median forecast of 50.3

Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.2

• from 50.0 in November
• the non-manufacturing PMI covers the services and construction sectors

Composite PMI combines both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities came in at 50.3

• slightly down from 50.4 in November

Maybe its just me but the acceleration in services is encouraging. The efforts to stimulate manufacturing are suspected of being a little misplaced, sending goods into domestic markets that are already well supplied and flirting with price deflation. Services and construction rising (an acceleration in expansion for the non-manufacturing sectors, in the PMI at least) would seem to be a more desirable outcome.

My interest was piqued, too, by the rise in AUD ahead of the data release. Leaky? Or just China being China?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.