On the daily chart below for
AUDUSD, we can see that after bouncing from the bottom of the range at 0.6563,
the market rallied towards the top where it found resistance again from the
retracement level. The price has been stuck in this range for
3 months already as the market remains uncertain on what’s next amid
contradictory economic data. At the moment, the market expects the Fed to pause
in June and start cutting rates before the end of the year. So, the buyers
should remain in control as long as the data confirms this outcome, but if the
data continues to point to a more hawkish path, then we should see the sellers
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price is now being rejected from the resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. We should see a pullback towards the trendline and the support at 0.6720 where
the buyers are likely to pile in expecting another rally afterwards. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking through the
trendline to jump onboard and extend the selloff towards the bottom of the
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that an eventual pullback towards the trendline will have extra confluence from the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. Therefore, the 0.6720 level is a strong area to watch as it
should define the next big move. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report and it’s likely that
higher than expected data will give a boost to the USD as the market would
change its interest rates expectations, while lower than expected figures
should lead to more USD depreciation.
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
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