AUDUSD Technical Analysis



  • The
    RBA raised the cash rate by 25 bps as expected as the central bank
    judged that the move was warranted to be more assured that inflation would
    return to target in a reasonable timeframe.
  • The
    CPI report recently surprised to the upside
    prompting the market to price in a higher chance of another rate hike from the
    RBA in November, which is what we eventually got.
  • The
    RBA Governor Bullock downplayed the beat in the CPI data
    and made the market to pare back the rate hike bets.
  • The
    labour market continues to weaken as seen also
    recently with the miss in the employment change and the losses in full-time
  • The
    Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction with
    the Services PMI plummeting back into contraction as well.
  • The
    market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD rejected
the key resistance around
the 0.65 handle and erased all the gains seen after the FOMC and the NFP
report. The pair has been ranging for months as the uncertainty in the market
remains high. We will likely need some strong fundamental catalyst to trigger a
more sustained trend.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the selloff
from the key resistance found some support around the upward trendline and the
0.64 handle, but eventually the price fell below it triggering even more
selling. The price since then pulled back into support now turned resistance where
the sellers stepped in once again with a defined risk above the level to
position for another drop into the lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the
1 hour chart, we can see that the last leg lower diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we got a pullback into the resistance, but the break
above the trendline is making things less clear. We should now have a mini
range between the 0.64 resistance and the 0.6365 support. A break on either
side is likely to lead to a more sustained move with the buyers targeting the
0.65 handle on the upside and the sellers targeting the 0.63 handle on the

Upcoming Events

This week we have some top tier economic releases. We
begin today with the US CPI report which might be one of the most important
events of the week. Tomorrow, we have the Australian Wages data and later in
the day the US Retail Sales and PPI reports. On Thursday, we conclude with the
Australian labour market report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by FL Contributors at

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