AUDUSD Technical Analysis




  • The
    raised the cash rate by 25 bps as expected as the central bank
    judged that the move was warranted to be more assured that inflation would
    return to target in a reasonable timeframe.
  • The
    CPI report recently surprised to the upside
    prompting the market to price in a higher chance of another rate hike from the
    RBA in November, which is what we eventually got.
  • The
    RBA Governor Bullock has been leaning on a more hawkish side recently, but the
    central bank remains optimistic on the future outlook.
  • The
    labour market continues to weaken as seen also
    recently with the bulk of jobs added being part-time.
  • The
    wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
    growth in Australia remains strong.
  • The
    Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction with
    the Services PMI plummeting back into contraction as well.
  • The
    RBA Meeting Minutes released today were more hawkish
    than expected and showed that the central bank is now more worried about
    inflation expectations getting out of hand.
  • The
    market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting.


AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD finally
broke above the key 0.65
resistance and
extended the rally towards the 0.66 handle. The next target for the buyers
should now be the major
trendline around
the 0.6650 level where we can also find the 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement level.
That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in more aggressively with a
defined risk above the trendline.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
AUDUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
breakout but we can also notice the
divergence with the
MACD. This is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we could see a pullback into the broken
resistance now turned support where
the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup to target the major
trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the 0.65 level to pile in and target the lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
AUDUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
breakout of the
led to an increase in the bullish momentum which was
enough to finally break above the key resistance zone. More aggressive buyers
continue to lean on the red 21
moving average but
from a risk management perspective, the trendline offers a better risk to
reward opportunity.

Upcoming Events

This week is pretty empty on the data front with the US
on holiday for Thanksgiving Day in the final part of the week. Today, we have
the FOMC Meeting Minutes but it’s unlikely to be market moving given that it’s
three-weeks old data. Tomorrow, we have the US Jobless Claims report which is
probably going to be the most important release of the week. On Thursday, we
have the Australian PMIs while on Friday we conclude the week with the latest


This article was written by FL Contributors at

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