It is a bit of a head scratcher considering the more positive mood in equities so far today. The only thing I can point to is lower commodity prices in which we are seeing iron ore prices fall slightly after the recent rally. That said, I reckon traders engaging in shorts are also seeing the bounce this week as an opportunity to add to their position.
I mean, not withstanding, the same factors that have driven the aussie lower since the middle of last month are very much still holding true today as well. And if you consider China’s struggles and a worsening global economy, that’s no good reason to suddenly turn to bullish bets on the aussie – especially when rate differentials are in favour of the dollar as well.
For AUD/USD, buyers will need to climb back above 0.6500 to at least have some form of confidence back. Otherwise, sellers have a key area to lean on to keep the downside momentum going.
For now, sellers will look to try and retest the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 0.6427-38 again to try and regain some near-term control while buyers will look to defend that in order to maintain some hope on the recent bounce.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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