BOE’s Bailey: Things are looking a bit brighter than they did a couple of months ago

  • We expected a shallow, long recession back in November
  • Now we are forecasting modest, but positive growth
  • There has been greater resilience in the economy than expected
  • But inflation has also come in higher than expected
  • However, we have good reasons to expect inflation to fall sharply in the coming months
  • That should begin with the April number, to be released on 24 May
  • Risks to inflation are skewed significantly to the upside
  • Our commitment to 2% inflation is unwavering
  • Full speech

These aren’t anything that we don’t already know. However, he is putting a good deal of emphasis on the upcoming CPI data later this month. That will be one to watch and while base effects are something to watch out for, we will see if the BOE can rely on price pressures to fall in the months ahead to head to the sidelines.

This article was written by Justin Low at

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