BOE’s Bailey: UK forecast to enter recession later in the year

  • Near-term inflationary pressures have intensified significantly
  • The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is exceptionally high
  • Labour market may only lossen slowly in response to falling demand
  • But unemployment is expected to rise starting from next year
  • All options are on the table for September meeting and beyond
  • What we do at this meeting isn’t indicative of what we are going to do moving forward
  • A 50 bps rate hike today does not mean we are on a pre-determined path to raise by another 50 bps

The pound is slipping to the lows for the day now with cable dropping to 1.2080 on his comments about not being on a pre-determined path. I believe this was made clear from the statement when they said that they are not on a pre-set path but markets are reacting now to price that in further.


This article was written by Justin Low at

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