<p>The USDCHF opened the week below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). On Tuesday, the price soared higher reaching the 50% of the move down from the November 21 high. That level comes in at 0.93988. </p><p>On Wednesday, the price tumbled back down and in the process moved briefly back below the 200 and 100 hour MAs (green and blue lines), but closed above the MA levels. </p><p>ON Thursday after falling back below the MAs again, the price once again snapped higher reaching a new high for the week ahead of the jobs report today. </p><p>The jobs report and the ISM Non-manufacturing sent the pair tumbling once again. The price is back below the 100 hour MA at 0.9316 and the 200 hour MA at 0.9287. The low reached 0.9271.</p><p>So for the week, there were higher lows each successive day (red numbered circles). On Tuesday, the high was the highest going back to December 8th . Then today, the high again made a new high going back to December 8th before the tumble lower.</p><p>With the price below the hourly MAs, the sellers hold the „best hand“ and control (below 0.92872 is close risk – 200 hour MA). The next targets are the low from yesterday and Wednesday at 0.92597 and 0.92526 respectively. Then traders will look toward the extremes seen over the last month of trading. </p><p>What would spoil the fun?</p><p>Start by moving above the 200 hour MA and then the 100 hour MA. That would not be a good look for the sellers from a technical perspective. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Today’s jobs report showed the Canadian economy adding 104K jobs in December, far more than the 5K consensus.</p><p>That follows a strong November CPI report and has the OIS market pricing in a 72% chance of another 25 bps hike at the January 25 meeting. CIBC shifted its call to a 25 bps hike after the data.</p><p>“The Canadian labour market remains much stronger than expected and (so far) apparently
resilient to rapidly rising interest rates. While strong hiring at least partly reflects companies needing to compensate for
increased staff absenteeism, the tick down in the unemployment rate close to its record low sees us now forecasting a
final 25bp hike from the Bank of Canada at its meeting later this month.“</p><p>They are slightly confused by the report with 35K jobs gains in construction in a sector that’s undoubtedly suffering from the housing downturn. Hours worked were also only up 0.1% despite the jump in jobs.</p><p>USD/CAD today has fallen 89 pips to 1.3433 though that’s only about half the gain of NZD and AUD.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The 13th vote has started and Biggs, Boebert and Crane already voting for Jordan, but they did not nominate Herns or Jordan. </p><p>Donald switched to McCarthy during the last vote. </p><p>Herns – who Boebert nominated – voted for McCarthy. So he is not all-in and probably asked not to be nominated. </p><p>Jordan has said he does not want to be nominated. </p><p>Gaetz will likely vote against McCarthy.</p><p>The final 7 are:</p><ul><li>Biggs</li><li>Boebert</li><li>Crane</li><li>Gaetz</li><li>Good</li><li>Harris</li><li>Rosendale</li></ul><p>UPDATE: Gaetz and Good voted for Jordan bringing total to 5. Appears McCarthy lost the 13th vote.</p><p>Harris did switch to McCarthy, however. </p><p>It is Friday, so imagine there will be a lot of pressure exerted on the others to get this over before the weekend (after all, its the weekend), but I can see the remain-ers getting their last pieces of flesh. Will McCarthy be willing to give more, however?</p><p>/<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ target=“_blank“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>inflation</a></p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Alongside the yen, the pound is a notable laggard today as cable falls further following a breakdown yesterday below 1.2000. The drop also took out support from the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the swing higher since September, seen at 1.1953. That gives sellers with more scope to chase a further downside move – potentially looking at the 100-day moving average (red line) next at 1.1663.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But of course, any further downside leg requires vindication from the US data later today. That will be key for dollar sentiment as the new year finally looks to get rocking.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0500 while AUD/USD is also down 0.2% to 0.6732 at the lows for the day. The latter is continuing to see a rejection of its 200-day moving average play out for now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In broader markets, equities are tentative with S&P 500 futures flat and Treasury yields are also mostly little changed at the long-end of the curve so far today.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Today’s inflation data is quite positive</li><li>Rates are to rise to the point that it will restore inflation back to 2% target</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>He is one of the few to mention any talk about a top in terms of the tightening cycle. The others tend to steer clear of any clear line/area when it comes to the supposed terminal rate. As for his take that the inflation data today is „quite positive“, he probably should take a look at the core reading. Pfft.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>While the headline annual inflation declined more than estimated, as was the case with the German, French, and Italian readings this week, core annual inflation actually jumped higher in December as seen <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-december-preliminary-cpi-92-vs-97-yy-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That will offer the ECB no respite in their fight against inflation, with rising price pressures becoming more embedded in other parts of the economy. As mentioned yesterday, such tentative signs of slowing inflation (via the headline) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/tentative-signs-of-slowing-inflation-not-going-to-change-the-ecbs-mind-20230105/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>isn’t going to change the ECB’s mind</a> – at least not yet.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Economic confidence 95.8 vs 94.7 expected</li><li>Prior 93.7</li><li>Industrial confidence -1.5 vs -1.2 expected</li><li>Prior -2.0</li><li>Services confidence 6.3 vs 3.5 expected</li><li>Prior 2.3</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Amid a better economic showing during the winter, helped by milder weather conditions, euro area economic sentiment improved but the outlook remains subdued as recession risks are still on the cards. Of note, consumer inflation expectations declined further to 23.7 in December – down from 30.1 in November.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -1.8%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Euro area retail sales picked up by more than expected in November, owing to more sales of fuel at petrol stations. That comes as energy prices come off further in the region amid milder weather conditions during the winter.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin
failed to break the $17K mark on Wednesday and has rolled back to $16.77K at
the time of writing. Price fluctuations remain more than subdued. BTC remains
slightly above its 50-day moving average (50-DMA). As capturing a critical
trending level has yet to encourage more buyers, it is worth looking cautiously
at the dynamics of the coming days.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin was
able to touch a bottom at $16,000, signalled by a rise in the number of losing
addresses on the network, which exceeded 50% by the end of December, according
to a Coinbase report. The situation was similar in January 2015 and 2019, which
saw BTC bottom in previous cycles of decline.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
situation in Ethereum is more optimistic, as it rallied powerfully yesterday on
a break of its 50-day average and is maintaining most of those gains on
Thursday morning. In addition, in ETHUSD, the 200 and the 50 SMA have already
turned upwards, which is one of the signs that the trend is changing. However,
we still need confirmation.</p><p>News background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Ripple CEO
Brad Garlinghouse expressed hope that US regulators will achieve regulatory
clarity on cryptocurrency regulation in 2023. In his view, the main problem is
that the US reference various past bills, but it is better to start from
scratch.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Sam
Bankman-Fried, the founder of failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, has refused
to plead guilty to eight charges. Bloomberg notes that refusing to plead guilty
will give Bankman-Fried more information about the evidence against him. A
trial is set for October.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The world’s
second cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase will pay a $100 million fine.
Regulators note that the KYC requirement was followed formally by the exchange
and that the information provided by the user was not correctly verified when registering
a new client.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro’</a>s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-december-preliminary-cpi-86-vs-91-yy-expected-20230103/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Germany December preliminary CPI +8.6% vs +9.1% y/y expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-december-preliminary-cpi-59-vs-64-yy-expected-20230104/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>France December preliminary CPI +5.9% vs +6.4% y/y expected</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The saying is that central banks will look to stick with their prevailing argument/narrative for as long as they can get away with it, and that will apply again to the ECB as we kick start the new year. I mean, you don’t have to look too far back to be reminded of how stubborn they were in insisting that inflation was „transitory“. Ah, those were much simpler times.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The softer German and French (as well as Italian) consumer price inflation reports this week does make for an argument that perhaps the ECB might not have to be too hawkish, that is if inflation pressures are starting to cool.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But it is best to be reminded that a lot of this is helped by milder weather conditions in Europe during the winter and also the fact that energy prices have come off the boil and sunk back to levels before the whole Russia-Ukraine conflict – at least for now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That said, this development will take time to make its way back to more core measures of inflation and with that being more sticky and overall inflation being well above the ECB’s 2% target still, policymakers have very good reason to keep pursuing their current stance.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The window might be closing for the ECB considering the rise in recession risks but the recent softness in energy prices have certainly helped to minimise the severity of the downturn towards the end of last year.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That will provide some comfort and added flexibility for policymakers to keep running with the ongoing hawkish theme, so don’t expect the latest set of inflation numbers this week to materially change that.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.