<ul><li>At this point, we look for getting to a neutral mode</li><li>In most places, we are not quite there yet</li><li>Central banks have to keep tightening policy, raise interest rates</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This is because when inflation runs high, that undermines growth and hits the poorest parts of the population the hardest</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As for the IMF’s own projections, she reaffirms that it will take until 2024 for when central banks will only start to see the impact of their actions. Given how bleak the economic outlook may be in some major economies, rate cuts may come well before that. 😬</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Medium-term fiscal plan will now be full ‚autumn statement'</li><li>Has discussed this with BOE governor Bailey, says he understands the reasoning</li><li>Delay is the best way to make sure we take the right decisions</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I noted earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/hunt-and-bailey-spoke-yesterday-to-reaffirm-boes-independence-20221026/“ target=“_blank“>here</a> how gilts will not like such a delay and we are now seeing yields tick higher with 30-year yields up 11 bps on the day to 3.785% at the moment.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>From L-R: Winson Cao – Co-founder and Director, ACY
Securities, Ms. Bonnie Shek – Director of Hong Kong Trade Development Council,
Australia and New Zealand.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>ACY Securities,
one of the world’s leading tech-focused multi-asset CFD brokers, has recently
won the Business Excellence Award presented by the Hong Kong Australia
Business Association (NSW Chapter).</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The award is
the most recent addition to the string of accolades given to ACY Securities
over the past few years.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In receiving
the award, Winson Cao, Co-founder and Director at ACY Securities, said “It’s an
honour to be recognised for our vision and mission to deliver the best service
and trading platform to our clients.”</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>He added,
“You can be assured that as we continue to build and grow ACY Securities as a
leading global player, we will adhere to the strategies and focused
implementation that’s been the guiding principle for our business.”</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Now on its 23rd anniversary,
the HKABA NSW Chapter Business Awards is an annual celebration that recognizes
the entrepreneurial spirit and achievements of both small and medium
enterprises and corporations in all aspects of international trade affiliations
between New South Wales and Hong Kong Special Administration Region (HKSAR).</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The HKABA
NSW Chapter 2022 Business Awards have three award categories:</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>• Best
Initiative</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>• Business
Excellence</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>• Export /
Import Excellence</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Jack Fan,
Executive Officer at HKABA said, “We had a strong line up of competitive
companies that vied for this year’s award. And it’s been a privilege to be in
the company of distinguished businesses and entrepreneurs. I know that this
year’s awardees will continue to excel and shine as they grow their respective
businesses.”</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The HKABA winners
were selected by an independent judging panel chaired by Ms. Bonnie Shek, Director
of Hong Kong Trade Development Council, Australia and New Zealand. She was joined
by Dr. Luca De Leonardis, Head of Investment Promotion, Australia & New
Zealand of Invest Hong Kong; and Ms. Karen Macmillan, Director of Hong Kong
Tourism Board, Australia.</p><p>About
ACY Securities</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>ACY
Securities is one of Australia’s fastest growing multi-asset online trading
providers, offering ultra-low-cost trading, rock-solid execution,
technologically superior account management and premium market analysis. The
key pillars we operate on are transparency, client-focus and technology. With a
track record of servicing clients since 2011, we are well-positioned to look
after your trading needs.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>How quickly things can change. As we got into Friday trading last week, the dollar was in a firm position all before some dovish Fed talk came in and things swung back the other way around. Fast forward to today and that reversal momentum has intensified with the dollar technicals falling apart against the major currencies.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD has moved up to 1.0035 and above parity for the first time in five weeks as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-hits-parity-for-the-first-time-in-five-weeks-20221026/“ target=“_blank“>here</a> while GBP/USD is up over 100 pips on the day as it comes up for air in a push to 1.1580. I pointed out some technical considerations for the latter <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/cable-looks-to-come-up-for-air-as-dollar-loses-further-ground-20221026/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is now tracking below 148.00 in a push to fresh lows since Monday:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes as Treasury yields are sliding further, with 10-year yields now down 8 bps to 4.03%. As mentioned earlier, that is a far cry from the peak on Friday at 4.335% – which came before all the dovish Fed talk. The rally in bonds yesterday translated to dollar selling and we are seeing more of that now in European trading.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, AUD/USD is up 1.4% against the dollar to 0.6485 and is looking for a push towards 0.6500 next:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Some mistakes were made</li><li>There will be difficult decisions</li><li>Truss was not wrong to want to improve growth</li><li>Will not leave the next generation with debt to settle</li><li>Will have professionalism and accountability at every level</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For now, the drama is at least dying down but he still faces a tough challenge ahead in trying to bolster economic conditions. The UK outlook remains rather challenging at the moment and he has a tall order to try and steer things in the right direction. </p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s not much in it to really decipher as the pound is gaining some ground as the UK political uncertainty eases. Rishi Sunak has been announced as the new prime minister and he is set to deliver a statement in the coming minutes. GBP/USD is up 0.5% to 1.1330 levels at the moment and here’s a look at the near-term chart:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The near-term bias for the pair remains more bullish as price holds above the key hourly moving averages but there is still short-term daily resistance around 1.1400 for the time being. As such, the pair is sort of caught in between that for now as we gear towards key central bank meetings in the week ahead.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Dollar sentiment is more mixed today, with broader markets also not settling on a firm narrative. Equities are lower while bond yields are also on the retreat, so it is making for a bit of a choppy one in trading during the session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But despite some easing in the political uncertainty, this still puts the pound in a position back to where it was before the whole Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget fiasco. The UK outlook remains extremely challenging amid high inflation, the energy crunch and the cost-of-living crisis and none of that has changed significantly.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As long as the Fed sticks to the status quo next week, it will continue to be tough to argue against the path of least resistance being for a move lower in cable.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -2</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The net order book balance among UK manufacturers fell by less than expected with expectations of price rises in the next three months also seen falling from +59 in September to +46 this month – that is the lowest since September last year. It is a positive development but overall sentiment remains gloomy with business optimism in Q4 (-48) sliding to its lowest since April 2020. CBI notes that:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“It’s a tough time for manufacturers. Price pressures remain acute, availability of raw materials is still a big issue.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“It is 49 years since manufacturing firms were this worried about being able to find workers with the skills they need. It’s really no surprise that sentiment has deteriorated further.“</p><p>/<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp/“ target=“_blank“ id=“3a5ab7c1-ff09-45ea-87d4-eea6613bb754_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>GBP</a></p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The numbers are calculated by market sources, as cited by Reuters. This just adds to the one on Friday as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“ctober-estimated-to-have-cost-over-5-trillion-20221024/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>here</a>. But if you look at where USD/JPY is trading now (near 149.00), one can easily ask what intervention? ¯_(ツ)_/¯</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For some context, Japan’s FX reserves stood at about $1.23 trillion at the end of September, according to official reserves data. So, they definitely still do have plenty of ammunition left but do they really want to keep at this considering how ineffectiveness the latest attempts have been?</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>Gold has been
historically regarded as a safe haven, a backup for fiat currencies, and a
secure asset for the storage of value for many centuries. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Nations, investors, and
traders trust the value of gold, not just for its intrinsic & unique
properties as a metal or commodity, but also for its embeddedness in the
cultures and religions of various regions.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Throughout the past
century or so, gold has represented an asset which protects investors, corporations,
and countries against inflationary pressures. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Time and time again,
the precious metal was used as a hedge against economic recessions and
uncertainty, but this may not be the case in the modern era of volatility, high
inflation and increasing pessimism.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>As seen in the chart
above provided by Macrotrends, the price of gold relative to the U.S. dollar
has been accelerating exponentially over the last hundred years, especially
since 1975.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The grey areas
represent recessions, and it can be noticed that the value of the bullion
propels higher when economies are swimming in calamity. This is because gold is
regarded as an asset which protects against macroeconomic contraction.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The Great Recession of
the 1930’s, Dot-com bubble of the early 2000’s, the stock market crash of 2008
and the COVID-19 pandemic are all examples of economic recessions which witnessed
the rise of the precious metal and the fall of dollar-backed assets such as
equities, bonds, and real estate.</p><p>Is Gold Still
a Safe Haven?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>It’s not very easy to
answer this question. The trajectory of gold has been downward trending since
the start of the year, as can be seen in the chart provided by TradingView.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Macropolitical unrest,
growing pessimism and sky-high inflation has swayed investors away from
dollar-backed assets, but gold as well. Typically, investors would go on a gold
rush in times of fear and volatility, and head towards the yellow metal for
safety. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Now, in the modern era
of high pessimism and short-lived rallies, investors are skeptical to invest
even in safe havens. The Japanese Yen, a currency regarded as a safe haven as
well, has plummeted to 20-year lows at some point, and still isn’t seeing the
brighter side of day.</p><p>So, what now?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Gold is gold, and
bullion fanatics believe in the value and potential of gold as a final resort
when things turn sour. Analysts believe that as markets begin to recover, gold
may witness a surge in value once again.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The coalition between
Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) plan to create a
currency backed by gold, which is not linked to the U.S. dollar greenback. It’s
meant to rival the USD amid macropolitical turmoil, and since nations believe
in it, investors and traders will eventually follow suit.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>It’s the time for gold
to shine, sooner or later. Much of gold’s future direction would depend on what
happens next in the Russia-Ukraine conundrum, China’s initiatives on
‘peacefully’ taking over Taiwan, and how red-hot inflation across many regions
plays out in the coming months.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Prepared by team of
Goldenbrokers</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s all about <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-start-of-the-central-bank-bonanza-20221024/“ target=“_blank“>key central bank meeting decisions</a> in the next two weeks and after last Friday’s recovery in broader market sentiment, we’re seeing a bit more chop and some pushing and pulling today. But the dollar is standing its ground despite the choppiness, posting a decent recovery after its fall at the end of last week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>S&P 500 futures are back up by 12 points, or 0.3%, after falling by around 23 points earlier in the session. 10-year Treasury yields also moved up from 4.13% to 4.21% only to fall back by 5 bps now to around 4.16% on the day. It looks like we may have to wait for North American traders to really settle the score.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is still down 0.4% to 0.9810-20 levels after sluggish PMI data from Europe earlier as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/euro-lacks-comfort-as-pmi-data-highlight-continued-downturn-20221024/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>, while USD/JPY is still looking perky as the bulls brush aside the intervention attempt in Asia.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The low in Asia hit 145.48 before rebounding back to above 149.00 levels at the moment. It looks like the Japanese government will have to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-intervention-on-21-october-estimated-to-have-cost-over-5-trillion-20221024/“ target=“_blank“>burn more cash</a> if it really wants to send a stronger message to markets.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also now trading down by 0.2% to 1.1280 at the lows for the day. The pair opened with a gap higher as the pound gained some respite as Boris Johnson bowed out of the race to become the next UK prime minister. The opening levels were around 1.1400 but we look to be headed towards a test of its 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1242-59:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, USD/CAD is up 0.6% to 1.3730 while AUD/USD is down 1.3% to 0.6290 as it runs into a challenge of its key hourly moving averages we well:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.