<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The justification for tighter policy is clear</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Whether interest rates have to rise by as much as currently priced in financial markets remains to be seen</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2022/october/the-inflationary-consequences-of-real-shocksspeech-by-ben-broadbent.pdf?la=en&hash=40EE6F0A7FE902A87B1349A71B04FF37A2D62C74″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full comments</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s a slight pullback on market pricing for the BOE after his comments but nothing too material. After all, the immediate outlook remains the more important one here and a 75 bps rate hike is fully priced in going into the 3 November policy decision. OIS swaps show that a 100 bps rate move is now seen roughly at 15%, down from 25% earlier.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As for his headline comment, he’s talking about when the bank rate moves to somewhere around 5.25% and how that will result in a cummulative drag of GDP by almost 5% under the entire tightening cycle. As if the central bank will keep tightening when the economy is in such utter shambles. Pfft.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>/<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp/“ target=“_blank“ id=“3a5ab7c1-ff09-45ea-87d4-eea6613bb754_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>GBP</a></p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As risk sentiment nudges lower again while Treasury yields keep higher, the dollar is finding fresh bids on the day in a push to the highs. EUR/USD is now down 0.9% to 0.9760 in a fall below its 100-hour moving average at 0.9791 and is now looking towards its 200-hour moving average at 0.9755 next:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>A push below the latter will see sellers resume near-term control and price will look towards the 13 October low at 0.9631 next before turning towards 0.9600 again.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also declining further after its earlier fall below the 100-hour moving average. The pair now looks towards 1.1200 with the 200-hour moving average at 1.1180 also in focus:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Much like the EUR/USD, the pair is also seeing the near-term bias now shift to be more neutral. And a push below the 200-hour moving average (blue line) will give sellers room to roam back towards 1.1000 next.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, USD/JPY remains perky in a run to 149.70, up 0.3% on the day, as it continues to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-nudges-closer-towards-intervention-trigger-20221019/“ target=“_blank“>flirt with a potential intervention trigger</a> ahead of the 150.00 mark.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Looking over to commodity currencies, they are moving back to the lows for the day as equities retreat ahead of US trading. S&P 500 futures are now down 12 points, or 0.3%, and that is seeing the loonie, aussie, and kiwi nudge lower. USD/CAD is up 0.4% to 1.3790 while AUD/USD is falling by 0.5% to 0.6280 and threatening a fall below its key hourly moving averages at 0.6282-94. For the latter, a break below the near-term support in that region will allow for another run at 0.6200 for sellers.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>I am sorry and have made mistakes</li><li>It is right to make changes to economic approach</li><li>Spending will go up next year and the year after</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s quite a feisty session this one as she is brutally attacked by Starmer, as you would expect though. You can watch it <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT14sw0_RRc“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -2.0%</li><li>Market index 204.6 vs 214.3 prior</li><li>Purchase index 164.2 vs 170.5 prior</li><li>Refinancing index 394.6 vs 423.2 prior</li><li>30-year mortgage rate 6.94% vs 6.81% prior</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The average interest rate for the most popular US home loan rose further to 6.94% in the past week – its highest since 2002 – as conditions continue to deteriorate in the mortgage market. The main index is seen dropping over 4% again in the past week, falling to its lowest since 1997. Boom. 💥</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With a lack of headlines to work with, European morning trade today has been rather restrained. The dollar is still keeping a slight advance across the board, working with levels noted earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-in-control-as-risk-optimism-evaporates-20221019/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, equities pushed lower in the opening two hours of the Europe cash market open but are now starting to nudge back up again though I would say that the gains may be rather tentative. Wall Street will have the final say and after two big days of gains to start the week, are we starting to see the momentum falter?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>S&P 500 futures are up 12 points, or 0.3%, while European indices are also hanging on to light gains at the moment. The DAX is up 0.2%, CAC 40 up 0.5%, and UK FTSE up 0.1%.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s still plenty to sort out on the day with Treasury yields holding higher as well, keeping thereabouts after the move from earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-sense-of-uneasiness-as-bond-yields-pull-higher-20221019/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Core CPI +4.8% vs +4.8% y/y prelim</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>A slight revision lower to the headline reading, but close enough to be called double-digits – just not officially now. Either way, it still represents a record high inflation figure in the Eurozone. The core reading is unchanged and this still puts the pressure on the ECB to act ahead of a gruelling winter for the euro area economy.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pair is trading at the lows for the day now, with the dollar holding in a decent spot in trading today. Only the kiwi can really have anything to shout about against the dollar and that owes to higher-than-expected inflation data as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/kiwi-holds-higher-after-higher-than-expected-inflation-20221018/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. As for the pound, the recent relief bounce is looking to fade now in a push back to 1.1260 against the dollar.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As the UK gilts crisis dies down, the focus for the currency turns towards the economic outlook and BOE outlook again. As for politics, Truss is facing daunting odds to stay in charge as prime minister. In a bizarre twist, the latest YouGov Tory members poll show that Boris Johnson is the top choice to replace Truss. I mean, what else can you say to that.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Going back to the chart above, cable is now being pressured close to the 100-hour moving average (red line) and a fall below that will see the near-term bias turn more neutral instead. The 1.1200 mark and the 200-hour moving average (blue line) will be the next area to watch for support and a further drop will exacerbate any further decline towards 1.1000 again.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Outside of politics, the pound is also struggling for comfort as the BOE came out to deny that it was going to delay QT – which is scheduled for 31 October. That’s not offering too much assurance for gilts as well, which are still at elevated levels even though newly appointed UK finance minister, Jeremy Hunt, ripped up the mini-budget yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>On the balance of things, it’s still tough to look at the pound with much confidence and the daily chart also points to some technical resistance via a trendline from the recent highs:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That suggests that the technicals are also supporting a consideration for limited relief in the latest bounce for the pound, adding to the already bleak fundamental outlook.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Sure, sure. The endorsement continues after US last week said that the OPEC+ decision to cut oil output was engineered for political reasons instead. Given such a pushback, one can expect the bloc to keep with the latest path and to reduce supplies further in the coming months.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>Are you trying to keep up with the
constantly fluctuating markets? You’re not alone. 2022 has been extremely
volatile and full of surprises for the financial markets due to the unpredictability
of economic and political events. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Whether you’re a beginner or a more
experienced trader, you’re probably struggling with making trading decisions as
you fear you might make the wrong move.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article will give you a better
understanding of what happens during volatile market periods and what you can
do to boost your trading strategies. Keep reading to find out more!</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>What
is market volatility?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>It’s a common misconception that
volatility is only about prices falling rapidly, when in reality it has to do
with any sudden price movement, including an unexpected rise in prices. In
simple terms, an indicator of market volatility is the frequency and magnitude
of price movements, whether upward or downward. Therefore, market volatility
increases when price swings are larger and more frequent.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>It’s helpful to keep in mind that
volatility is a normal part of the cycle of online trading. In this way, you
can be more prepared to take control of your trading positions.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>What
causes volatility in the markets</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Volatility is often a result of
economic factors, such as financial news, interest rate changes, and fiscal
policy. More recently, a leading factor has been political developments. As
volatility reflects investor sentiment, any factor influencing investor behavior
will influence market volatility. Markets are typically considered volatile if
they rise or fall more than 1% over a long period of time. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
current state of the markets</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>2022 has been full of ups and downs for
<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://ellandroadcapital.com/product-specifications/“ target=“_blank“>CFDs in every asset class</a>, including
stocks, forex, and crypto futures. Major economic and political events have
shaped the market sphere throughout the year. Increasing inflation, recession
fears, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are some of the main aspects that have
influenced traders’ sentiment and their trading decisions. Let’s take a look at
some of the most prominent examples of market volatility this year:</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Forex: Some of the most powerful currencies, such as the EUR, JPY,
and GBP, experienced record-breaking lows, while on the other hand, the USD has
managed to push through the turbulent global economies and is expected to go
even higher by the end of the year.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Stocks and Indices: The S&P 500 witnessed one of its worst
performances in decades, reflecting a bearish market sentiment.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Cryptocurrency: The crypto
market is facing one of its most challenging years as the uncertainty of the
economic outlook has made traders turn to safe havens rather than
cryptocurrencies. For example, Bitcoin dropped by 56% during the Q2 of 2022 and
is still struggling to remain above average levels.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
bottom line</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>An essential trader trait is being
aware that online trading entails high risk as there are many factors that can
impact the markets and affect your trading positions.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>What can you do to be more prepared?
Staying up to date with economic events is always a good idea so you can be in
a better position to understand what is happening in the markets, while also practicing
and adapting your trading strategies so you can be able to respond to any
market condition. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://portal.ellandroadcapital.com/login“ target=“_blank“>Log in to your Elland Road trading account</a> to explore
the volatile markets.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Risk
Warning: Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’) are complex financial products, with
speculative character, the trading of which involves significant risks of loss
of capital. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Disclaimer:
This
material is considered a marketing communication and does not contain and
should not be construed as containing investing advice or a recommendation, or
an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments or a
guarantee or a prediction of future performance. Past performance is not a guarantee
of or prediction of future performance.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This relates to the earlier report <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-reportedly-to-further-delay-qt-to-ensure-gilts-market-stability-20221018/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. I think it would depend on what exactly they will define as being ‚inaccurate‘ but the pound did retreat a little on the news to a low of 1.1286 before keeping back around 1.1315 now – down 0.3% on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There was also a brief jump in gilt yields, with 30-year yields moving up to 4.48% before keeping around 4.42% now – up 5 bps on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Delaying QT is surely the right approach considering the recent fiasco and the damage to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/l/liquidity/“ target=“_blank“ id=“633aaf0b-b4a1-40c5-8fbe-bf158af520a1_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>liquidity</a> in gilts. As such, trying to portray otherwise is a bit of a head scratcher. Mind you, 30-year yields are still some 92 bps higher than before the mini-budget announcement by Truss and Kwarteng last month.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.