China GDP growth seen rebounding to 4.9% next year – poll

<ul><li>2022 GDP growth seen at 2.8% (previously 3.2% in October)</li><li>Q4 2022 GDP growth seen at 1.8% y/y, marking a drop from 3.9% in Q3</li><li>2023 GDP growth seen at 4.9% (previously 5.0%)</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Economists see China’s economic growth rebounding modestly next year before steadying in 2024 (growing by 5.0%) with more stimulus on the cards. Here’s a couple of notes from those polled:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“We expect economic activities and consumption to rebound strongly from March-April onwards, helped by post-COVID re-opening and release of excess savings. (But) the lack of large-scale income and consumption stimulus will likely limit the rebound“. — UBS</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“Economic policy would turn more supportive in 2023. We expect 11-12% credit growth in 2023 vs 9.6% in 2022, thanks to the window guidance on banks and the improved credit demand. Fiscal policy could also turn more expansionary with a record quota for local government special bonds.“ — Macquarie</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In terms of inflation forecasts, the poll showed that consumer inflation in China is likely to rise to 2.3% next year before steadying in 2024.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at

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