Clyde Russell at Reuters takes a look at a few scenarios for global markets in 2025 and how they will play out. It’s a good time to think through some different ideas, even if you disagree with some of the takes here. Not surprisingly, the list is dominated by the uncertainty of how Trump and Republicans will govern.
- Trump Better Than Expected
- Trade threats yield concessions
- US economy leads global growth
- China recovers
- Peace deals reached
- Bullish: copper
- Bearish: oil, gas
- Trump Worse Than Feared
- Major trade barriers erected
- Global economy suffers
- Higher inflation
- Bearish: copper, iron ore, oil, LNG
- Bond markets punish Treasuries
- China Recovery
- Property/local govt cleanup succeeds
- Consumer spending rebounds
- New markets for green tech
- Bullish: copper, iron ore, LNG, coal
- Limited oil impact due to EVs
- OPEC+ Fractures
- Unity breaks under US production surge
- UAE may increase output
- $75/bbl support threatened
- EV adoption pressures oil outlook
- Energy Transition Ex-US
- China floods market with cheap green tech
- US isolates itself
- Global adoption accelerates
- Bullish: copper, lithium, minor metals, silver
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.