Headlines:An early shift towards ‚peak inflation‘ on the day?Bond sellers take their foot off the gas pedalECB’s Lagarde: APP should be concluded early in Q3ECB’s Vasle says supports further, faster policy actionECB’s de Guindos: Euro area inflation to remain at 4% to 5% at year-endECB’s Müller: Appropriate to raise rates into positive territory by year-endMore from Villeroy: ECB will start raising rates this summerECB’s Villeroy: Inflation should be back at around 2% in 2024US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 6 May +2.0% vs +2.5% priorGermany April final CPI +7.4% vs +7.4% y/y prelimMarkets:AUD leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.2%US 10-year yields down 6.3 bps to 2.930%Gold down 0.8% to $1,851.60WTI crude up 4.2% to $103.90Bitcoin up 1.7% to $31,517The focus on the day is on the US CPI release coming later at 1230 GMT but markets are seemingly running with the idea that we’re settling into the ‚peak inflation‘ narrative already.The dollar dropped while equities and bonds were bid throughout the session. European indices are posting solid gains of around 1.5% to 2.% while 10-year Treasury yields settled below the 3% mark, down 6 bps to 2.93% currently.In FX, the greenback held weaker across the board with AUD/USD up over 1% back above the 0.7000 mark while USD/JPY is down 0.5% to below 130.00 at around 129.70 levels at the moment.The better risk mood is helping with sentiment among commodity currencies, with USD/CAD dragged down 0.5% to 1.2960 – mired between large expiries at 1.2950 and 1.3000 on the day. The loonie is also benefiting from higher oil prices with WTI crude up over 4% to near $104 as Shanghai’s COVID-19 situation saw an improvement, bringing about hope for loosening of restrictions.All eyes now turn towards the inflation data in the US, so let’s see what that has to offer as it will likely set the tone for markets for the remainder of the week as well.
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