On the daily chart below for the
Nasdaq, we can see that the price is breaking above the key 12274 resistance, but the question now is whether
or not the buyers will be able to sustain it. The recent economic data has been
giving conflicting signals, but the market seems to be leaning on the
goldilocks scenario where the labour market remains resilient as shown by the
strong NFP report recently and inflation
slowly moderates towards the target as shown by the recent CPI coming in at 4.9% Y/Y. The big bullish
flag is still valid and if the buyers manage to sustain the breakout, the
target would be the 13000 level. A fakeout wouldn’t be good news, but the
sellers have more work to do before getting full control.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been ranging just beneath the key resistance for over a
month with just one failed probe at the end of April. This breakout is
significant but unfortunately it is not sustained by a fundamental catalyst as
the big miss in Jobless
Claims yesterday should make the market worry about a deterioration in the
labour market. Today we have the University of Michigan consumer
sentiment report and the market is likely to focus on the inflation expectations
figures as those ticked up considerably recently.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the range and the recent breakout. The buyers may pile in
again if the price pulls back to the broken top of the range. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price falling below the 12172 swing level
to start positioning for another possible selloff towards the bottom of the
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
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