US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 15 July -6.3% vs -1.7% prior 0 (0)

  • Prior -1.7%
  • Market index 281.1 vs 300.0 prior
  • Purchase index 208.0 vs 224.3 prior
  • Refinancing index 655.7 vs 685.3 prior
  • 30-year mortgage rate 5.82% vs 5.74% prior

Ouch. That’s another steep drop in mortgage activity as both purchases and refinancing activity declined strongly in the past week. For some context, the purchase index is now ~19% lower than the same week a year ago while the refinancing index is down ~80% as compared to that same period. It’s not a good look on housing market activity with MBA noting that:

“Mortgage applications declined for the third week in a row, reaching the lowest level since 2000. Similarly, with most mortgage rates more than two percentage points higher than a year ago, demand for refinances continues to plummet, with MBA’s refinance index also falling to a 22-year low.

“Purchase activity declined for both conventional and government loans, as the weakening economic outlook, high inflation, and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand. The decline in recent purchase applications aligns with slower homebuilding activity due to reduced buyer traffic and ongoing building material shortages and higher costs.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Dollar finds some footing on the day 0 (0)

There is a bit more of a push and pull feel now on the session as the dollar finds a bit of a footing as risk sentiment turns the other way around. EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.0175 quickly before trading back to near 1.0200 currently. Buyers are still in near-term control though but it highlights some nerves going into the ECB policy decision tomorrow.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD has also fallen back below 1.2000 and AUD/USD has seen earlier gains trimmed with a drop from 0.6930 to 0.6900 near the lows for the day.

As much as the dollar was softer earlier in the week, the moves are largely viewed as a retracement still. It is tough to bet on a major turnaround in sentiment for the greenback unless something changes at the FOMC meeting next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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US futures pare gains on the day 0 (0)

The gains at the start of the session are failing to hold but it is still early in the day to be drawing much conclusions. US stocks had a great run-out in trading yesterday but futures are failing to build on that optimism so far today. S&P 500 futures were up as much as 27 points earlier in the day but are now down by 4 points at the lows:

It is going to be a testing day for both buyers and sellers with the 28 June high in focus from a technical perspective:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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