A momentary breather for the pair? Likely so. The pause comes after some intervention talk last week among Japanese officials, and that kept buyers more guarded in pushing for a move towards 130.00.Since then, the pair has stalled somewhat although the move does reflect action in the bond market as well. 10-year Treasury yields are down 3.8 bps to 2.789% today and that is seeing USD/JPY down 0.3% to 127.75 at the moment.Looking at the near-term chart above, it is also evident that the upside momentum has met a bit of a pause. Price action has fell back below the 100-hour moving average (red line) but is staying somewhat supported above the 200-hour moving average (blue line). That hints at a more neutral near-term bias currently.It’s all about the next move and month-end flows will also factor into trading over the next few days. Equities had looked sluggish mostly but pulled off a bit of a turnaround yesterday, though it isn’t much when you weigh that against the moves throughout the month. The bond market remains key in my view but perhaps there might be more push and pull there from hereon until we get to the Fed next week.As such, that could keep USD/JPY well rested between the 125 and 130 range in the bigger picture. But in the context of price action now, there is minor support around 127.34-45 with the 200-hour moving average a key one to watch as well. As for upside levels, the 100-hour moving average is the first notable level before getting to 129.00 and then the recent highs around 129.40.

Hopes BOJ continues to strive towards achieving 2% inflation targetThe jawboning continues and these remarks aren’t anything that we haven’t heard of before. Japanese officials can at least take heart that the yen slide is at least meeting a bit of a pause in the last few days after a quick push in USD/JPY headed towards 130.00. Talks of intervention have seemingly helped but it may prove to be just a speed bump if the fundamentals don’t change.

PBOC cuts forex RRR by 1 percentage point.China’s Central Bank: Starting From May 15, The Foreign Exchange Deposit Reserve Ratio Of Financial Institutions Will Be Lowered By 1 Percentage Point, That Is, The Foreign Exchange Deposit Reserve Ratio Will Be Lowered From The Current 9% To 8%

US Market Open: European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the boardFull noteEuropean cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majorsTwitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, WSJ sourcesStateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields.DXY set a new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and a sharp slide in crude alongside other commoditiesFrench President Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%.Looking ahead, highlights include a Speech from ECB’s Panetta, Earnings from Activision Blizzard, Coca-ColaEUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majors.Sectors are lower across the board with a clear defensive tilt: Energy and Basic Resources sit at the bottom of the bunch amid hefty downside in underlying commoditiesStateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields.Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid and be more receptive to a deal with the sides meeting on Sunday to discuss the proposal. It was separately reported that Twitter is facing increasing shareholder pressure to negotiate with Elon Musk in his takeover bid and that the Co. is in talks with Elon Musk in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, according to WSJ.Twitter (+0.7% pre-market) is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid, via WSJ.FX DXY sets new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and sharp slide in crude alongside other commodities.Yen back in favour as risk sentiment sours irrespective of denials about joint Japanese and US intervention discussion – Usd/Jpy towards base of 128.87-127.89 range.Aussie underperforms on Anzac Day due to steep decline in copper and iron ore – Aud/Usd tests 0.7150 and Aud/Nzd cross under 1.0850 vs 1.0940 at one stage overnight.Yuan extends depreciation as Covid spreads to a district in Beijing and PBoC continues to lower Cny midpoint reference rate – Usd/Cnh just shy of 6.6000, Usd/Cny eyeing 6.5650.Euro averts 1.0700 test, narrowly, and pares more losses after surprisingly upbeat Ifo survey, on the surface – Eur/Usd rebounds to circa 1.0750, but still well below Macron victory high.Pound loses Fib support on the way through 1.2800 and sub-8400 vs Dollar and Euro respectively.FIXED INCOME Debt futures firm as risk appetite wanes, but bonds fade beyond 154.50 in Bunds, 119.00 in Gilts and 119-25 in the 10 year T-note.Core EZ bonds lose momentum after German Ifo survey beats and irrespective of less encouraging accompanying statements.French OATs off peak within 147.38-146.28 range posted on confirmation of Macron defeating Le Pen to retain Presidency.European Commission sells EUR 2.499bln (exp. EUR 2.500bln) 0.4% 2037 NGEU; b/c 2.05x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 1.626% (prev. 0.375%).COMMODITIES WTI and Brent June contacts have continued to decline since the resumption of futures trading.Spot gold has been caged to a near-USD 5/oz range since the European open as the impact of a firming Buck negated the effects of lower yields at the time.Base metals are in a sea of red as China’s lockdown woes hit the demand side of the equation – with LME aluminium and zinc the laggards at the time of writing.NOTABLE HEADLINES French President Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%, while Le Pen conceded defeat after the initial projections, according to Reuters and Sky News.ECB President Lagarde commented that interest rate hikes will not lower energy prices, according to Barron’s.ECB policymakers are said to be keen to finish bond purchases as soon as possible and possibly hike rates in July but no later than August, while they are leaning towards two rate moves this year with three also a possibility, according to Reuters sources. However, an ECB spokesperson declined to comment on the timing of ending bond purchases and potential interest rate increases.The EU is said to prepare the creation of a new trade and tech council with India, according to FT sources. The new forum could be unveiled on Monday during the European Commission President’s visit to India.The EU will aggressively police online content from Big Tech platforms such as Google (GOOG) and Meta’s Facebook (FB), according to the FT

UK CBI Data:Business Optimism: -34 (Forecast -15, Previous -9)Orders:14 (Forecast 22, Previous 26)More like Business Pessimism.. AMIRITE??Anna Leach, deputy chief economist at the CBI, said manufacturing orders and output continued to grow, albeit at slower rates and the war in Ukraine was exacerbating COVID-related supply problems.“It’s little wonder that sentiment has deteriorated sharply over the past three months and manufacturers are now scaling back their investment plans,“ Leach said.Sterling just can’t catch a break. Currently down 0.9% on the day.

This
article is devoted to a special tech analysis pattern in Forex
and the stock market that can be found on a good half of reversals of trend and
correctional movements from M1 to MN. However, right because of this frequent
emergence, the main task of a trader is to distinguish between a Failure Swing
that will bring them a profit with more than 50% probability and a mock Failure
Swing.

Description
and examples of Failure Swing

A
bearish Failure Swing is a double top, the second peak being lower than the
first one. A bullish Failure Swing is a double bottom, the second bottom being
higher than the first one.

Here
are some simple examples:

The
idea of the pattern is that the shorter second part of the pattern demonstrates
such a low market interest to the preceding movement that market players do not
even want to test the tip of the first peak or bottom.

Nonetheless,
classically speaking, an uptrend is considered in action when its highs and
lows increase consecutively; similarly, a downtrend is considered acting when
the lows decrease one after another. However, when a bullish Failure Swing
appears with an increasing instead of decreasing high, this means that the
downtrend is at least slowing down.
And when the price break through point 2
from below, the trend is considered ascending. With a bearish Failure Swing,
the situation is the same: when the bottom point is broken through from above –
the trend is already considered descending. Of course, all this is just
hypothetical, in Forex as well as in the futures or stock markets. Any trading
signal is hypothetical. The trader’s task is to make the probability come true.

Requirements
to a highly probable Failure Swing

For
a Failure Swing to be able not only to slow down the movement in which it has
appeared but also to really push the price in the opposite direction, the
pattern needs time. Particularly – no less than 30% of the time that the
preceding uptrend or downtrend took to develop.
However, the time can work
either on generating force for a reverse movement or banal consolidation for
going in the previous direction. So, a highly potential pattern must demonstrate
changing dynamics of price
movements.

As
for a bearish Failure Swing, the price must drop as fast as possible from high
1 to low 2, while the incline from low 2 to high 3 must be as slow as possible.
And from high 3, the price must start falling again very fast and confidently,
closing the candlestick on the working TF under low 2. As soon as this happens,
a bearish Failure Swing is considered complete.

For
a bullish Failure Swing to have high potential, the price also needs to grow
from point 1 to point 2 as fast as possible, while the decline from point 2 to
point 3 must be very smooth. From point 2 to point 3, the price must grow
steeply, confidently closing the candlestick above point 2. After this, the
bullish Failure Swing is considered complete because the price movement hereafter
complies with a classic uptrend.

In
most cases, the angles of lines 1-2 and 2-3 will be equal often the trend
reverses at line 2-3. However, line 2-3 must never have a sharper angle than
line 1-2. And from point 3, the price must always go confidently in the target
direction and always at a sharper angle than line 2-3 has.

Signal
to buy

The
signal appears as soon as you notice a highly potential pattern complete. Enter
a buying position as soon as the candlestick closes above the level of point 2.
However, if the candlestick closes high above point 2, place a Buy Limit order
a bit higher than the broken top because in highly potential Failure Swings,
the price seldom drops lower. Example of a signal to buy:

Signal
to sell

It
appears as soon as the candlestick closes under the level of point 2 of the
signal pattern. If the candlestick closes deep under the level of point 2, you
can place a Sell Limit order a couple ticks under it or at the level of point
2. Example of a signal to sell:

Stop Loss and
Take Profit

Trading
by the Failure Swing, the initial Stop Loss should be placed behind point 1. If
you are selling, mind the spread. The SL can be moved after newly emerging
extremes while the price is approaching the Take Profit. While the trader
should not wait long, moving the SL to the breakeven, using each new extreme,
when they will trail the position they should always keep in mind that the
market will need time to consolidate powers for a new movement.

As
for the TP, the trader can do without it, using their position trailing skills.
However, trading in Forex or the futures market, I would recommend using a Take
Profit. I checked the EUR/USD chart over 14 months for
Failure Swings that could be used and decided that on H1 I would not have
placed any TP at all if it had to be to times larger than the SL. As for
trading Failure Swings on the same pair, M5, over 11 months, I decided that an
optimum TP should be no more than 3 sizes of the SL. Alternatively, choose the
TP size based on your experience.

However,
in the stock market, trailing positions can be more efficient than a stiff TP.

Money
management

Trading
Failure Swings, the trader can choose between risking fixed percentage of the
deposit or risking the same lot. I presume that any trading signal has the same
chances for success and failure, that is why I recommend risking fixed
percentage of the deposit. It should be no more than 2%, and when you are still
learning – no more than 1%.

Example
of trading:

I
made an in-depth study before writing this article and concluded that trading
Failure Swings can bring a profit. However, for this probability to become
real, the trader should choose a comfortable TF and be very picky, choosing
candidates for profitable signals. Thus they will minimize risks.

By Analytical Department at RoboForex.

The awesome CN Wire notes that..China’s cabinet: Will further promote release of consumption potential and sustainable recovery of consumption. Will guide financial system to supprot real economy through various measures such as lowering interest rates and reducing fees.Will steadily increase mass consumption such as automobiles. All regions shall not add new automobile purchase restriction measures.Regions that have implemented automobile purchase restrictions will gradually increase number of automobile increment quotas and relax qualification restrictions for car buyers.Will make overall use of existing financial funds to support construction of consumption-related infrastructure. Will include eligible projects in scope of local govt special bonds, so that investment can be better used to boost consumption.~ with China seemingly regressing back to lockdown mode (did it ever progress out of it??), you have to believe that govt support measures will only become more pronounced.

There are plenty of updates on Russia’s war on Ukraine, just noting this one. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the US visitors. He will meet with the two on Sunday. Further weapons provisions will be on the agenda. Zelenskyy: said he expected „not just presents or some kind of cakes, we are expecting specific things and specific weapons.” —Unrelated – join us on ForexLive on Monday morning Asia time for opening rates. EUR will be in the spotlight with the French presidential election. Polls have Macron to win reasonably comfortably. But … polls have been unreliable and two-horse races have an in-built degree of unpredictability.Background election posts:Euro sees lopsided risks ahead of French election runoffPresidential election in France this weekend is a risk event for the EUR

MON: German Ifo
(Apr), US National Activity Index (Mar).

TUE: NBH Policy
Announcement; Japanese Unemployment (Mar), UK PSNB (Mar), US New Home
Sales (Mar).

WED: Chinese Industrial
Profits (Mar), Australian CPI (Q1), German GfK (May), New Zealand Trade
Balance (Mar).

THU: BoJ &
Riksbank Policy Announcements, CBRT Inflation Report; Japanese Retail
Sales (Mar), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Apr), German Prelim. CPI (Apr),
US GDP Advance (Q1), PCE Prices Advance (Q1).

FRI: CBR Policy
Announcement, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr), German Import
Prices (Mar), German GDP Flash (Q1), Swiss KOF (Apr), EZ Flash CPI (Apr),
Flash Prelim. GDP (Q1) & M3 (Mar), US PCE Price Index (Mar),
University of Michigan Final (Apr), Canadian GDP (Feb).

  NOTE: Previews are
listed in day-order

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (SUN):
The first round of voting saw no overall winner with incumbent President Macron
falling short of the 50% threshold required for victory. As such, the race will
now go to a “winner takes all” second round involving Macron and far-right
candidate Le Pen. Ahead of the first round, polls had Macron at 53% for the
second round and Le Pen at 47% despite the spread between the two being as wide
as 58% – 42% throughout March. In the aftermath of the first round vote and
ahead of the TV debate on April 20th, Macron managed to extend his lead to 55%
from 53%. Whilst there hasn’t been a great deal of polling fully encapsulating
the post-debate period, many commentators are of the view that it will not be a
gamechanger in terms of the race. The base case for the market remains one of
continuity with Macron widely expected to be awarded a second term. Macron’s
policy platform will need to be viewed in the context of the June parliamentary
elections which will determine the ease with which he can legislate his policy
agenda. That said, a Macron victory will likely provide support for French
stocks and bonds and some upside in EUR as risks of a disruptive Le Pen
Presidency are priced out; however, the sustainability of any EUR move would be
questionable given that the currency is likely to be more sensitive to the
fallout from the Ukraine crisis and the path of monetary policy at the ECB. A
Le Pen victory would be viewed as less of a market positive, and may result in
downside for the EUR, underperformance in French bonds and stocks. Economic
policies would likely centre around addressing the cost-of-living crisis with
UBS of the view that such policies could be more fiscally expansive than those
presented by Macron. Contagion into Eurozone-wide assets would likely be more
contained than it would have been in 2017 with Le Pen having scaled back her
ambitions for France to leave the EU. However, questions would be raised over
what tensions would arise from Le Pen’s more conciliatory tone towards Russia
in the run up to the election. Furthermore, some commentators have suggested
that Le Pen would look to play a similar role to that of Hungarian PM Orban who
has proved to be a disruptive force within the Union. In the FX space, a Le Pen
victory could prompt calls for parity between EUR and USD.

CHINESE INDUSTRIAL PROFITS (WED)/PMI
(FRI): There are currently no forecasts for the industrial
profits metric, but the release comes against the backdrop of the COVID-related
shut-downs in the region; thus expectations will likely be skewed towards a Y/Y
decline and will likely be overlooked. Greater focus may fall on the anecdotal
commentary within the PMI releases on Friday, particularly on inflation and
growth. Nonetheless from a policy perspective, Chinese authorities are
seemingly more concerned about growth. Note, that Chinese markets will be
closed from May 1-5th due to Chinese Labor Day.

AUSTRALIAN CPI (WED):
Australian consumer prices are expected to have broadly picked up in Q1.
Headline CPI is expected at 1.7% Q/Q (prev. 1.3%) and 4.6% Y/Y (prev. 3.5%),
with the Trimmed Mean gauge seen rising to 1.2% Q/Q (prev. 1.0%) and 3.4% Y/Y
(prev. 2.6%), while the Weighted Mean is expected to rise to at 1.1% Q/Q (prev.
0.9%) and 3.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.7%). Aussie bank Westpac sees inflationary
pressures building due to continued supply disruptions, rising commodity and
energy prices, and robust domestic demand. From a policy perspective, the RBA’s
April meeting minutes stated saw the central bank note the pick up in recent
inflation, and it expects further increases ahead, with the measure of
underlying inflation in the March quarter expected to rise above 3%. The
minutes also suggested that recent developments brought forward the likely
timing of the central bank’s first-rate increase of the cycle. Westpac believes
the RBA will begin the process of raising rates in June.

NEW ZEALAND TRADE BALANCE (WED):
There is not yet a consensus formed for the NZ March trade data, but analysts
at Westpac are expecting a deficit, amid the surge in oil prices. In terms of
the prior month’s metrics, the headline printed at a deficit of NZD 8.37bln;
the breakdown saw exports at NZD 5.49bln and imports at NZD 5.88bln. From a
policy standpoint, the RBNZ is expected to hike rates nonetheless and the March
release will not likely impact pricing.

BOJ PREVIEW (THU): The
Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy settings unchanged in April,
likely maintaining rates at -0.10% and its QQE with yield curve control to
flexibly target 10yr JGB yields at 0.0%. Its latest Outlook Report is likely to
see growth projections cut and inflation forecasts raised due to effects from
the Ukraine war and China’s COVID outbreak. Traders will also be attentive to
any commentary or measures taken on the currency, given the recent rapid
decline of the JPY, which has seen USD/JPY briefly climbing to 129.00, the
highest levels in around 20 years. The central bank must also contend with a
rising yield environment, which has already prompted it to intervene via
special operations for an unlimited amount of JGBs purchases after yields
breached the top-end of its target range. In terms of the rhetoric on monetary
policy, the BoJ has remained dovish in the face of the policy normalisation by
other major central banks across the world, and Governor Kuroda has reiterated
that it is too early to debate an exit from stimulus policies, adding that the
BoJ will maintain ultra-loose policy to stably achieve its 2% price target, and
is prepared to ease further without hesitation if needed. The data releases
have been varied and support a pause by the BoJ: headline CPI for March was in
line with market expectations at 1.2% and 0.8% for the Core measure, which were
both the fastest increases since October 2018 and January 2020 respectively;
the Tankan data was mixed, where the headline Large Manufacturing Index topped
estimates, although sentiment among Large Manufacturers and Non-Manufacturers
worsened for the first time in seven quarters.

RIKSBANK PREVIEW (THU):
The Riksbank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% in April,
despite multiple hot CPIF readings and commentary from officials pointing to
earlier than forecast tightening (currently, lift-off is forecast in Q1 2024).
Standing pat on the Repo Rate will likely be justified by the view that the
central bank wants any tightening to be gradual, as expressed by policymakers
Floden and Ohlsson, and more prudently to allow the Bank to communicate a
potential tightening cycle to participants through a formal policy meeting
before its commencement, likely in June with further 2022 hikes thereafter. On
the flip side, market pricing for a 25bps hike in April is now over 90%, with
around 23bps worth of tightening implied. Arguments to begin the tightening
process at the April meeting are supported by headline and core CPIF measures
at levels well above the Riksbank’s “obsolete” February forecasts, and are
seemingly yet to peak. Additionally, an earlier commencement to the cycle may
allow the terminal rate to be lower than if lift-off was delayed – an argument
that has been used by some other global central banks too. Irrespective of the
rate decision, participants will be attentive to how much tightening the
Riksbank is pencilling in this year, and where it estimates the eventual
terminal rate. Elsewhere, the pace of QE was a highlight of the February
gathering after hawkish dissent; the Q3 pace is likely to see a reduction from
the maintained Q2 pace of SEK 37bln.

US GDP (THU): Advance
data is expected to show that the rate of US economic growth slowed to 1% Q/Q
annualised in Q1 after expanding by 6.9% in Q4. As a proxy, the Atlanta Fed’s
GDPNow model is tracking growth of 1.3% in the quarter. However, as is always
the case with the advance data, the consensus view is subject to revisions
given many of the key inputs of the report will be released in the early part
of the week. In terms of the details, analysts at Credit Suisse explain that a
large reversal in inventory accumulation will be the chief culprit of the
growth slowdown in Q1. But while the trade and inventories components are
likely to be a large drag, CS argues that personal consumption should
contribute to the acceleration in domestic demand, business investment has been
rising steadily and is expected to continue, while residential investment
should also remain solid despite the rise in mortgage rates. The commentariat
will naturally focus on the slowdown and the potential for a recession in the
context of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve as it
tries to put a lid on inflation, and as these high prices weigh on consumer
spending power. But ahead, Credit Suisse is looking for more trend-like growth,
and sees 2022 GDP rising by 1.9% after the 5.5% growth in 2021. „Solid
fundamentals and easy financial conditions now limit the risk of a recessionary
downturn this year, but risks are on the rise from both tighter financial
conditions and growth weakness overseas,“ CS says.

EZ FLASH APRIL CPI (FRI):
Expectations are for HICP to rise further to 7.5% Y/Y in April (prev. 7.4%),
with the core metric (ex-food and energy) seen rising to 3.3% Y/Y (prev. 3.2%).
The March data saw inflation soar to 7.4% from 5.9%, with upside driven by
surging energy and food prices amid the conflict in Ukraine, whilst pressure
was also seen in the core reading following a pick-up in goods and services
inflation. This time around, Moody’s expects an above-consensus 7.9% print with
its analysts of the view that there is “still room for core prices to grow with
costs staying high. Food prices will also contribute largely to the headline
inflation rate, while energy prices will rise further as utility contracts are
renegotiated in view of the higher wholesale prices of the past months”. From a
policy perspective, the upcoming release will be of particular importance given
the increasingly aggressive market pricing triggered in part by commentary from
the typically dovish ECB Vice President de Guindos, who said that a move on
interest rates was possible as soon as July. As it stands, a full 25bps hike is
priced in for the July meeting with three rate rises fully priced by year-end.
Analysts at ING think the release will be a key test for the hawkish pricing,
arguing that a cooling of inflation would be needed for any easing of these
hawkish expectations. The bank notes that such an easing would be required for
markets to realign with their baseline scenario which looks for the ECB to hike
rates in September and December and then twice again next year, bringing the
deposit rate to 0.5% by the end of 2023.

CBR PREVIEW (FRI):
After Russia’s central bank lifted its key rate to 20% in February to stabilise
the currency and ease inflation pressures following the country’s aggression
against Ukraine drew a strong sanctions response from the West, it made an
unscheduled rate cut of 300bps on April 8th. Markets have also been guided to
expect further rate reductions ahead. Speaking to lawmakers this week, Governor
Nabiullina suggested that the central bank would consider a reduction at future
meetings, but did not explicitly say that this could be forthcoming on April
29th; previously she has talked about how officials will assess gradual rate
reductions at future meetings. Deputy Governor Zabotkin has recently said
similar, noting that we should not expect or fear that rates will remain at the
current high levels, and they would be lowered as inflation eases. The CBR
analyst survey this week revealed a view that inflation would not sustainably
fall until 2023, and was set to remain elevated in the near-term. But it won’t
be until 2024 that inflation approaches the central bank’s 4% target, the
Governor has recently argued, adding that combating high prices was the central
bank’s most important challenge. Still, many analysts expect rates to be
lowered again in April; according to Reuters, the head of Russia’s
second-largest lender VTB is expecting the CBR to cut rates to 15% this week,
and sees the key rate at 12-13% by the end of the year. Elsewhere, analysts
will be looking for any updates on the currency, after Nabiullina suggested
that the CBR would consider forex controls to avoid the RUB’s deviation from official
levels.

US PCE PRICE INDEX (FRI):
PCE data for March is expected to show core prices rising by 0.3% M/M (prev.
+0.4%), with the annual rate seen rising one-tenth of a percentage point to
5.5% Y/Y. Although not directly comparable, the US CPI report for March showed
consumer prices rising by 1.2% M/M, lifting the annual rate by 0.6ppts to 8.5%
Y/Y – a forty year high. The core measures, however, rose less than analysts
were expecting (6.5% Y/Y from 6.4%), leading some to declare that the top in inflation
was in. Using the March CPI report as a proxy to estimate how Personal
Consumption Expenditures (which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation) will
fare in the month, analysts at UBS suggested that core PCE prices will have
risen by 0.3% M/M, though they see the annual measure falling to 5.2% Y/Y from
5.4% in February – this would represent the first decline in the 12-month core
PCE inflation measure since February 2021, which the bank says „will mark
the first step past peak inflation.“

US EMPLOYMENT COSTS (FRI):
Employment costs are expected to have risen by 1.1% in Q1, picking up from the
rate of 1.0% in Q4 2021. Although the data is backwards looking, analysts tend
to place more stock in this series rather than the Average Hourly Earnings
metrics within the BLS’ labour market report or the Atlanta Fed’s own wage
tracker – both of the latter measures have outperformed employment costs in the
post-pandemic era. Analysts will be framing the employment costs data within
the context of the current high inflation, and will be looking for any signs
that the current inflationary pressures are feeding so-called second-round
effects – something which is likely to influence how aggressively the Fed moves
to normalise policy in the months ahead.

This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.

I’m not sure if this is the peak of earnings season as measured by the number of companies reporting, but it’s certainly the peak of big names reporting.
Monday morning starts off with Coca-Cola and that afternoon we get economic bellwether Whirlpool. The tech heavyweights go on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, including:

Microsoft
Alphabet (Google)
Meta (Facebook)
Apple
Amazon
Twitter
Ford
Mastercard
DR Horton (largest US home builder)

Probably the scariest big cap tech stock chart out there right now is Alphabet, which on Friday broke through a level that’s been tested four times previously.