Headlines:

• Sterling climbs on slightly stronger UK inflation data
• US futures pare losses as risk mood holds up for now
• Japan chief Cabinet secretary says closely watching FX moves, prepared for full measures
• UK March CPI +3.2% vs +3.1% y/y expected
• Eurozone March final CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 12 April +3.3% vs +0.1% prior
• NZ statistics office owns up to inflation data release error
• Japan monthly visitors hit a record high in March, crosses 3 million for first time ever

Markets:

• NZD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.655%
• Gold up 0.3% to $2,388.80
• WTI crude down 0.7% to $84.77
• Bitcoin flat at $63,053

The dollar is taking a bit of a breather today as it slacks against the rest of the major currencies bloc. That said, it is still in a solid position as traders are still digesting the events so far in April.

The pound was a decent mover, helped by a slightly stronger UK inflation report. GBP/USD nudged up from 1.2420 to 1.2480 but failed to clear the 100-hour moving average. The key technical hurdle is where sellers are holding, with price now back down slightly to 1.2455 on the day.

Besides that, EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0640 with USD/CHF down 0.2% to 0.9107 currently. The moves are relatively light, not really suggesting much of a turnaround in the recent dollar momentum.

AUD/USD is seen up 0.4% to 0.6425 with NZD/USD up 0.5% to 0.5908 after the NZ inflation data earlier in the day. A better risk mood is also helping as US futures pared early losses to sit a little higher now. European indices are also looking to bounce back from yesterday’s fall, with French stocks leading the way. The CAC 40 is up a little over 1% with the DAX up 0.5%.

Other than that, there’s not much else to really scrutinise in markets so far today. It’s a pause in the dollar momentum and that’s the main takeaway.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Copper continues to be
supported by favourable fundamentals although the latest rally is starting to
look a bit exhausted. The supporting factors include the recent beat in the Chinese PMIs and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, with the latter jumping into
expansion for the first time since 2022. Moreover, we have the PBoC expected to
deliver more policy support this year while the other central banks continue to
foresee rate cuts at some point although they are willing to keep rates higher
for longer if needed. The current environment should be good for growth, so the
things to watch will be signs of marked deceleration in growth indicators or
increased risks of rate hikes.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Copper has been
struggling to break the key 4.35 level. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 4.18 level where
we can also find the confluence of the 50%
Fibonacci retracement level,
the red 21 moving average and the trendline. The
sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels to position
for a drop into the trendline and eventually target a break below it.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback would come right around
the base of the divergent formation near the 4.18 support,
although the price will need first to break below the black minor trendline to
confirm it.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price rejected the 4.35 level and it’s now falling back to the minor trendline.
The buyers will have another opportunity to step in around the trendline to
position for a break above the 4.35 resistance. If the price were to break lower
though, the sellers will gain control and take the price into the 4.18 support.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.1%
• Market index 202.1 vs 195.7 prior
• Purchase index 145.6 vs 138.7 prior
• Refinance index 500.7 vs 498.3 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.13% vs 7.01% prior

Despite a jump in the rates, mortgage applications in the past week rebounded a fair bit. Both purchases and refinancing activities also climbed with the latter index at its highest since May last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Iran-Israel tensions are casting a dark shadow over the market, providing what can be argued as a timely retracement in equities and risk trades. But whenever geopolitics tend to get involved, the first thing that always comes to mind for me is the saying buy value, sell hysteria.

It’s a tale as old as time and it works for almost anything as long as there is fear in the picture. If a meteor is said to be headed to earth and the market crashes, it’s the best time to buy the dip. If there’s a comet projected to hit earth and wipe out humanity, you should buy the dip anyway. At worst, we all die together. But by any chance the comet misses and we all survive, guess what? The world will carry on as it did before.

As much as tensions are staying heated when it comes to Iran and Israel currently, there’s every likelihood that at least one side does not want a war. I mean, we’ve gone through the whole Russia-Ukraine debacle two years ago and I preached the exact same thing here.

But putting that into today’s market, things might be a little different. We’ve seen stocks rally in rather one-sided fashion since the end of October. And this is perhaps as good an excuse as any to come off the boil a little. I mean, it is also coinciding with more stubborn inflation pressures.

Over time, the market is always quick to forget and move on. And in this day and age, it happens more quickly than ever given the information echo chamber. So, yes the tensions are high when it comes to Iran and Israel now. But this is an episode that the market will not care about in a few months‘ time, let alone a year.

And that’s what you should be looking at. That is to buy value, sell hysteria.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The recent price action in
Crude Oil indicates that the market needs some rest as we haven’t seen a
sustained rally despite the big geopolitical risk in the Middle East between
Israel and Iran. Overall, the fundamentals remain supportive for the market as
we’ve been seeing a pickup in economic activity, although the expectations for
rate cuts continue to dwindle. The technicals will be important to monitor as a
drop below the key $83 support zone could start to signal a turnaround in the
bullish trend.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil got
stuck in a consolidation lately with a slight bearish tilt as the price
continues to pull back into the key $83 support zone.
That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in as they will also find the confluence of the trendline, the red
21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop back into the lows.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is
breaking below another minor trendline which should see some sellers piling in
to target a drop into the major trendline for a pullback. There’s not much else
we can glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
clearly the consolidation that’s been going on since last Monday. We can also
see that we have a downward counter-trendline where the sellers piled in for a
better entry to target a drop into the major trendline.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar continues to stay in prime position
• Treasury yields nudge higher on the session
• ECB’s Rehn reaffirms June rate cut if there are no inflation setbacks
• UK February ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.0% expected
• Germany March wholesale price index +0.2% vs -0.1% m/m prior
• Germany April ZEW survey current conditions -79.2 vs -76.0 expected
• Eurozone February trade balance €23.6 billion vs €11.4 billion prior
• US trade chief says ‚taking a serious look‘ at tools to deal with China
• Xi says China and Germany have huge potential for win-win cooperation

Markets:

• EUR leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 2.3 bps to 4.650%
• Gold down 0.4% to $2,371.94
• WTI crude down 0.2% to $85.19
• Bitcoin down 0.9% to $62,610

The dollar isn’t flexing its muscles too much in European trading today. However, it remains in pole position on the grid following the moves since last week. There is no major extension of gains but the dollar is still poised when you analyse things by the charts.

EUR/USD is only up 0.1% to 1.0632, stuck within a narrower range today. But the pair has the makings of a drop towards 1.0500 next in the bigger picture. Meanwhile, higher Treasury yields is underpinning USD/JPY with the pair seen up 0.2% to 154.65.

The UK labour market report today was rather mixed, leaning slightly on the softer side. The jobs data was weak but wages are staying high. It barely produced much of a reaction in the pound though, with cable looking flat at 1.2450 on the day.

Elsewhere, the aussie and kiwi are laggards amid a softer risk mood and some selling in the Chinese yuan during Asia trading.

In the equities space, European indices are all down over 1% in catching up to the losses in Wall Street yesterday. But we are seeing a slight turnaround in the mood as US futures are now positive, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%.

As for commodities, gold is down slightly amid a choppier start to the week for precious metals. Bitcoin is also down and contesting support in and around the $61,000 mark on the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Finance
Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:24) right around the corner, offering a wide range
of networking and engagement opportunities for participants. Held on May 20-22 in
Sandton City, South Africa, the premium event will aim to expand attendees’
networks and gain valuable insights into the industry’s latest trends and
developments.

Held for the
second straight year at the Sandton Convention Centre, the event will look to
bridge both the B2C and B2C space. This includes connecting world-leading
brokers, brands, and more with regional and local providers, as well as a
sizable pool of new and existing retail traders.

FMAS:24 will be here
before you know it – if you have not already done so, head on over to the
registration page for the event and sign-up
today! Registering online ensures you can skip the wait and queue on-site.

Attendees at
this premium event can take advantage of a wide range of networking
opportunities, featuring face-to-face engagement and more. With over 3,000
attendees, 120 exhibitors, 150 speakers, and more, expect anything to happen on
the exhibition floor at FMAS:24.

All
participants will have countless chances to network, connect, and meet the
following participants:

• Forex/CFD
  Brokers
• Institutional
  Brokers
• Affiliates
  & IBs
• Traders
  & Investors
• Educators
  & Market Experts
• Fintech
  & Payments Brands
• Crypto &
  Digital Assets Businesses
• Technology
  & Liquidity Providers
• Press/Media
• Regulators
• Start-ups
• Investors/VCs

How to
Prepare for FMAS:24

Preparing
adequately for networking at events such as FMAS:24 can significantly enhance
one’s experience and yield fruitful connections. This includes some practical
tips to help attendees make the most out of their networking endeavors at the
Finance Magnates Africa Summit.

It’s
essential to enter the summit with a clear understanding of one’s objectives.
Whether it’s seeking potential business collaborations, exploring investment
opportunities, or simply expanding professional networks, having a defined
purpose can guide interactions and ensure meaningful engagements.

Engaging in
conversations with fellow attendees is key to building connections. Initiating
discussions in a friendly and approachable manner can open doors to valuable
opportunities. Remember to introduce oneself succinctly, highlighting relevant
background information and areas of interest.

Active
listening is a crucial aspect of effective networking. Showing genuine interest
in others‘ perspectives by asking open-ended questions and attentively
listening to their responses can foster deeper connections. Demonstrating
empathy and understanding can go a long way in building rapport with fellow
professionals.

Register
Today for the Biggest Event of the Year in Africa!

Exchanging
contact information with individuals of interest is vital for maintaining
connections beyond the summit. Whether it’s through traditional means like
exchanging business cards or connecting on professional networking platforms,
staying in touch can facilitate future collaborations and partnerships.

Following up
with newfound connections post-summit is essential for nurturing relationships.
Sending personalized follow-up emails or messages expressing gratitude for the
interaction and interest in further collaboration can solidify connections made
during the event.

Additional
Benefits to Attending FMAS:24

Attending
networking events and receptions held in conjunction with the summit provides
additional opportunities for mingling with industry peers in a more relaxed
setting. These informal gatherings offer a conducive environment for building
relationships outside the confines of the expo hall.

Remaining
authentic and genuine in interactions is paramount to successful networking.
Authenticity fosters trust and credibility, laying the groundwork for
long-lasting professional relationships. Being oneself and showcasing genuine
enthusiasm for the finance sector can resonate positively with fellow
attendees.

In
conclusion, attendees of the FMAS:24 stand to benefit greatly from effective
networking strategies. By approaching interactions with purpose, engaging in
meaningful conversations, and nurturing connections beyond the event,
professionals can leverage the summit as a platform for professional growth and
collaboration. With the right mindset and proactive approach, the possibilities
for forging valuable relationships are endless.

This article was written by Jeff Patterson at www.forexlive.com.

In response to increased client demand
for flexibility in the commodities market and in line with its commitment to
deliver comprehensive trading solutions, FP Markets has announced the
expansion of its commodity offering.

The move allows traders and investors at
FP Markets to not only capitalise on new opportunities in the commodities sector but it also
broadens the options available for portfolio diversification.

Complementing its existing range of
Commodity CFDs, clients trading with FP Markets can
now trade and invest in Brent Oil, Cotton and Sugar Futures CFDs:

●
Symbol: BRENT
Description: Brent Crude Oil Fut
Contract size: 1000

●
Symbol: COTTON
Description: US Cotton No. 2 Fut
Contract size: 100

●
Symbol: SUGAR
Description: US Sugar No. 11 Fut
Contract size: 100

Available on cTrader, MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5) Trading Platforms, the newly
added Commodity Futures CFDs are being introduced at a time when Brent Crude –
a benchmark for global oil prices – is challenging year-to-date highs, and
Cotton and Sugar are fast approaching their year-to-date lows. A comprehensive
list of all available commodities can be found on the FP Markets website.

Commenting on the recent addition of
trading products, FP Markets Head of Risk, Christodoulos Psomas, commented:
‘Aligned with our commitment to diversify offerings and enhance our clients‘
trading experiences, we are glad to announce the addition of new futures
instruments to our portfolio: BRENT, COTTON, and SUGAR.

These new options are designed to
complement our existing commodities portfolio and broaden the spectrum of
trading opportunities available to our clients. We are dedicated to equipping
our clients with comprehensive resources and unwavering support to help them
manage these risks effectively and ensure a diversified investment strategy’.

Established in 2005, FP Markets is a
Multi-Regulated Brand providing clients with over 10,000 tradable instruments
across key asset classes and offers aggregate pricing across several top-tier
liquidity providers. Additionally, FP Markets deliver Consistently Tight Spreads, Rapid Execution, Unmatched 24/7
Multilingual Customer Support, and various Account Types to suit all
trading strategies and styles.

About
FP Markets:

●
FP Markets is a Multi-Regulated Forex and CFDs
Broker with over 19 years of industry experience.

●
The company offers highly competitive interbank
Forex spreads starting from 0.0 pips.

●
Traders can choose from the leading powerful
online trading platforms, including FP Markets’ Mobile App, MetaTrader 4,
MetaTrader 5, WebTrader, cTrader, Iress and TradingView.

●
The company’s outstanding 24/7 multilingual
customer service has been recognised by Investment Trends and awarded ‘The
Highest Overall Client Satisfaction Award’ over five consecutive years.

●
FP Markets has been awarded the ‘Best Global
Forex Value Broker’ for five consecutive years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)
at the Global Forex Awards.

●
FP Markets has been awarded the ‘Best Forex
Broker – Europe’ and the ‘Best Forex Partners Programme – Asia’ at the Global
Forex Awards 2022 and 2023.

●
FP Markets has been awarded ‘Best Trade
Execution’ at the Ultimate Fintech Awards 2022.

●
FP Markets crowned ‘Best CFD Broker in Africa’
at FAME Awards 2023.

●
FP Markets Awarded ‘Best Trade Execution’ and
‘Most Transparent Broker’ at the Ultimate Fintech Awards APAC 2023.

●
FP Markets regulatory presence includes the
Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) Financial Sector
Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, the Financial Services Commission
(FSC) of Mauritius, the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), the
Securities Commission of the Bahamas (SCB) and the Capital Markets Authority
(CMA) of Kenya.

●
FP Markets has been awarded the Best Price
Execution Award at the Brokersview Awards 2024 Singapore.

For more information on FP Markets‘
comprehensive range of products and services, visit https://www.fpmarkets.com/

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• The US CPI beat expectations for the third
  consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.
• The US NFP beat expectations across the board
  although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
  the lowest level in 4 years.
• The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a
  big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in
  September.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and
  finally dropped the tightening bias.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report came in line with
  expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior
  month.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain
  in expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in November.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD fell
below the 0.6440 low and extended the selloff into the 0.64 handle. The price
is a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move. In this case, the pullback would also
coincide with the support now turned resistance and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
which will be a nice zone for the sellers to enter the market again with a
better risk to reward setup.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a
minor trendline defining
the current downward momentum with the blue 8 moving average acting as dynamic
resistance. We can expect the sellers to lean on this trendline with a defined
risk above it to position for further downside. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the
0.65 resistance zone.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, if get a pullback, the sellers should lean on the
trendline where they will also find the confluence of the
trendline, the Fibonacci retracement levels and the red 21 moving average. If
the price were to break higher though, the reversal will be confirmed, and the
buyers will pile in for a rally into the 0.65 resistance zone.

Upcoming Events

On Thursday we get the Australian jobs data and the latest
US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

What a run it has been for gold in 2024, and we’re still only just four months in. A surging run from $2,000 all the way to $2,400 in a time when the dollar is also holding strong says quite a lot. That especially when traders are also seen paring back rate cut bets since the start of the year.

Amid ongoing tensions involving Iran and Israel, the precious metal ran up just above $2,400 on Friday. That before some profit-taking eventually kicked in and we’re seeing price chop around a fair bit in the last few sessions. But what does the technical picture say about gold at the moment?

The near-term chart seen above shows that buyers are still in control at this point. And during the run higher in April so far, they have done their part in defending the more bullish near-term bias.

The first couple of brushes against the 100-hour moving average (red line) were quickly defended before the strong dip buying yesterday at the 200-hour moving average (blue line). In short, sellers were unable to seize back near-term control in their first attempt.

As such, buyers are still poised with price action holding above both key hourly moving averages. Even with the slight drop today, it isn’t all too bad for gold in terms of the charts.

In the bigger picture, I can’t help but think there’s still so much more potential for gold to rip higher. As mentioned, we’re seeing gold surge despite a stronger dollar and softening of rate cut bets. What happens when those two factors switch around?

I reckon we might be due a major retracement/correction before that. But if anything else, that’s just going to present another prime dip buying opportunity – similar to October last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.