<p>The market was caught off guard in Tokyo trade on a report that Amamiya had turned down the role as BOJ Governor and that 71-year-old Kazuo Ueda was going to get the job.</p><p>Ueda wasn’t even on the long list of names people were speculating about, he wasn’t even a dark horse.</p><p>The immediate reaction was a hawkish one with USD/JPY tumbling. Since then, the market appears to have concluded that it doesn’t really know much about Ueda. That sentiment was hardened when he <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ueda-says-boj-monetary-policy-is-appropriate-need-to-continue-easy-policy-20230210/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>said </a>today that BOJ policy is appropriate and that easy policy needs to continue.</p><p>Justin earlier wrote a great post on what he’s <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/what-to-know-about-kazuo-ueda-the-man-set-to-take-over-as-the-next-boj-governor-20230210/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>said </a>in the past. There’s also this:</p><p>“From here on, with the restarting of economic activity post-Covid, there are expectations that there’ll be a stronger demand-inducing effect from the weaker yen. On the other hand, globally there’s likely to be a slowdown of inflation and economic growth. We should view the path toward achieving sustainable 2% inflation in Japan as still a long one.” </p><p>At some point the BOJ will have to exit YCC but naming Ueda as BOJ Governor isn’t a clear cut signal that it’s coming. That’s why USD/JPY has completed the round trip today.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing</li><li>25 bps hikes allow the Fed to manage risk</li><li>Fed needs to hike to at least 5% and stay there for some time</li><li>It will take a couple years to get inflation back to 2%</li><li>Expects US jobless rate to peak at 4.5% before ebbing</li><li>Expected rise in unemployment would not be recessionary</li></ul><p>This is dovish stuff from Harker but a few more strong data points could change his tune. For now, this is the clearest dismissal of the jobs report to date.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The price of WTI <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/c/crude-oil/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“e1f1b115-23d2-48c8-98c8-24024dada457″ target=“_blank“>crude oil</a> <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/f/futures/“ class=“terms__secondary-term“ id=“2037a59d-f6cf-44c1-a57d-162e04589957″ target=“_blank“>futures</a> are selling at $79.72. That’s up $1.66 or 2.13%</p><p>The high price reached $80.33. That was the highest level since January 30. The low price was at $77.47. For the week, crude oil is up $6.94 or 8.49%. Ever since the biggest one we gained going back to early October.</p><p>Looking at the daily chart, the price is getting closer to its 100 day moving average at $81.08. The price has not closed above its 100 day moving average since early November. A move above the 100 day MA would next target a swing area between $82.48 and $83.34. </p><p>Today Russia cut oil output in response to Western sanctions. They plan to lower production by about 5%. This is a rare move outside of the OPEC alliance.</p><p>The end of year level came in at $80.26. With the sell price at $79.72. It is within $0.54 of the end of your level.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That is something worth noting as Lindner is saying this through his Twitter account, saying that Germany should „learn from experiences with Russia“ and „instead of becoming too dependent, we urgently need to rethink“ the situation as China remains Germany’s main trading partner for a seventh year running.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For some context, Germany had a trade deficit with China of around €84 billion last year. The two countries traded goods worth around €298 billion – up by around 21% from 2021. Of note, Germany imported goods worth €191 billion from China last year – roughly a third more than the year before. Meanwhile, exports of German goods to China was seen around €107 billion – just a 3% increase to the previous year.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a surprise decision from Russia and it is likely to have caught OPEC+ off guard as well. We shall see how things develop in the coming days but I reckon they might not have much complaints unless Russia is not leaving this as just a one-off stunt.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is tough to gather much conviction in this market with there being plenty of headline risks all around. The yen and oil are two examples of that today and it isn’t helping when risk sentiment is positive one day and negative the next. After two poor showings in Wall Street, it looks like market players are seeking caution today though.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>S&P 500 futures are down 19 points, or 0.5%, and we are seeing Nasdaq futures be down 1.0% and Dow futures down 0.2% on the day. Tech is leading the downside but European indices are having to play catch up to yesterday’s losses in US trading and most major indices are down nearly 1% on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That is translating to some slight dollar strength on the session with EUR/USD down 0.3% to 1.0700 and GBP/USD down 0.2% to just below 1.2100 again. AUD/USD has also come off its earlier high of 0.6960 to trade at 0.6925 at the moment.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The decision by Russia is to voluntarily cut oil output by 500k bpd in March, with Novak stating that this will „facilitate the restoration of market relations“. He also adds that Russia may take further actions depending on the market situation and it is being reported that Russia did not consult with OPEC+ on the decision.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>If anything else, the fact that Russia is acting independently is a major blow to those hoping for some kind of stability in the outlook for the oil market. You have to wonder what Saudi Arabia has to say about this and if this will be received kindly by OPEC+ members. I would assume so but you don’t really want to risk Russia going off the rails and creating its own tangent when it comes to decision-making on oil production.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Looking at the chart, oil has been mostly consolidating between $70 and $80 in the past two months and the latest push higher today brings price close to testing its 100-day moving average (red line) once more. Keep below and the consolidation price action looks set to continue but break above and push past short-term resistance at around $82.50-30, then we can start talking about a potential move towards $90 again.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Important to make decisions logically and explain clearly, if he were BOJ governor</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Says nothing has been decided, when asked about reports he would be nominated as next BOJ governor</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I mean, you wouldn’t really expect him to say much of anything else before he takes over I guess. It would be poor form and not in the right place honestly. But the yen has erased much of its earlier gains with USD/JPY swinging back the other way now to go back above 131.00 on the day:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That will include the nominees for the deputy governors position as well, which will be presented to parliament. That fits with the earlier report from <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-government-plans-to-present-boj-governor-nominees-early-next-week-report-20230209/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. Mark that down in your calendars. This Valentine’s Day is going to be quite an eventful one (US CPI data on the cards as well), not just for dinner dates. 😉</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>We have to be prepared to see through policy tightening</li><li>Need to address potential upside risks to inflation</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The change in language by the BOE last week reaffirms the headline comment, so there isn’t much of anything new. There will be more rate hikes to follow by the central bank but in all likelihood, we are to see a 25 bps increment next.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.