<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, here we go. Sterling is now nudging higher as there is word on the street that the government may look to perform ‚the mother of all U-turns on the mini-budget‘, despite having earlier brushed aside talk of that <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-pm-spokesperson-says-truss-will-not-u-turn-on-economic-policy-20221013/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There was already a hint to the move earlier from gilts, as was tipped by our friend PiQ in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/long-end-gilt-yields-come-off-the-boil-20221013/“ target=“_blank“>this earlier post</a>. It looks like the government is the one causing the ripples. Here’s the source tweet for this post:</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“ data-partner=“tweetdeck“><p lang=“en“ dir=“ltr“>A former cabinet minister tells me: “Brace for the mother of all U-Turns on the mini budget today. A friendly person in the know is advising us to steer clear of the media today to avoid the explosion. We wouldn’t want to look silly by tomorrow.” <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/hashtag/waitandsee?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>#waitandsee</a></p>— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1580517767299547136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>October 13, 2022</a></blockquote><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“> That’s going to be real interesting but keep in mind, for now this is all talk still. There’s also added context here:</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“ data-partner=“tweetdeck“><p lang=“en“ dir=“ltr“>Downing Street denying any changes to mini budget but I’m told by sources discusssions underway over which bits might yet be junked give the scale of the concernLooking at a return to the mandate from the leadership contestNo clarity on timing of announcement if it happens</p>— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1580521390683586560?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>October 13, 2022</a></blockquote><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“> So far, gilts aren’t responding too much with 30-year yields still holding down about 30 bps to 4.57% at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Update: GBP/USD now climbing above 1.1200, up 1% on the day.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, we’re less than 1.5 hours to the main event this week and it’s always best to be reminded of the big picture every now and then. Everyone will be looking at whether or not the numbers are going to be a hit or a miss later but if they are within estimates, we are still dealing with 8% (!) inflation in the US. Anyone remembers what the Fed mandate is again?</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/inflation-peak-or-plateau-does-it-matter-20220511/“ target=“_blank“>Inflation peak or plateau? Does it matter?</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a fine line to balance on for Chinese authorities at the moment as there is clearly growing unrest across the country. While the rest of the world is seeking to find ways to mitigate and live with the pandemic, China is sticking with its snap lockdowns and tight restrictions domestically and on travel.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There has been speculation recently that they might let up on that but in a state media interview, one of the government’s adviser on the Covid-19 response, Liang Wannian, has said that there is no specific timeline for an exit from current pandemic protocols.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>He says that „it is not scientifically possible to clearly delineate“ if the restrictions will be gradually relaxed after next year’s NPC. Adding that China „does not have a braking mechanism, and it’s very difficult to get the virus under control again if something happens after we reopen“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, as long as China continues to stick with this, it’s like putting a bit of an anchor on the global economy in general. So, the related ongoing problems (manufacturing, supply chains, consumption decline) will still continue to play out across the world – adding to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/monetary-policy-alone-just-isnt-cutting-it-in-china-20220815/“ target=“_blank“>continued worries domestically</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>OPEC MOMR (Oct): World oil demand growth forecasts revised down for 2022 and 2023 by 500k BPD and 400k BPD respectively</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2022/october/huw-pill-in-conversation-with-scdi“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Monetary policy: an anchor in challenging times – speech by Huw Pill</a></p><p>BoE Chief Economist Pill says at present, he is still inclined to believe that a significant monetary policy response will be required to the significant macro and market news of the past few weeks </p><p>“But I will see when we get to November how events have evolved in the meantime“. </p><p>Employment has stagnated and is now showing tentative signs of falling. </p><p>This will help to cool the labour market and contain some of the domestically-driven inflationary pressures that historically have threatened to become more persistent.</p><p>I Continue To Expect A Significant Monetary Policy Action At The Monetary Policy Committee’s Next Scheduled Meeting </p><p>Fiscal Announcements Will, On Balance, Provide A Further Stimulus To Demand Relative To Supply Over The Medium-Term, Monetary Policy Relevant Horizon </p><p>Volatile Market Dynamics That Followed The Announcement Of The Growth Plan Underline The Need To Bolster The Credibility Of The Wider Institutional Framework </p><p>It Is Welcome That The Role Played By The Office For Budget Responsibility (OBR) In Scrutinising The Government’s Fiscal Plans Will Be Resumed</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp/“ target=“_blank“ id=“3a5ab7c1-ff09-45ea-87d4-eea6613bb754_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>GBP</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1580157285745455106?s=20&t=qXHBJMqPQRnUP3yC8W_hlQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>The German government expects Europe’s largest economy to slide into recession next year as an energy crisis, rising prices and supply bottlenecks take their toll, its economy minister said</a></p><p>German economy minister: </p><p>WE WILL HAVE NEGATIVE GROWTH FIGURES IN Q3, Q4 THIS YEAR AND IN Q1 NEXT YEAR</p><p>ECONOMY WILL SLIDE INTO RECESSION, SEES 2023 GDP -0.4%</p><p>~ Nobody is surprised by this! </p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>Vlad has been getting lively this morning, with plenty of quotes crossing the terminal..<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1580150347074789376?s=20&t=mCvrfXORcNd3gjwGnoQ_CQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Via Reuters:</a> Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that major leaks which suddenly erupted in the Nord Stream gas pipelines running from Russia to Europe were an „act of international terrorism“.</p><ul><li>THOSE WHO SEEK TO SEVER TIES BETWEEN RUSSIA AND EUROPE ARE BEHIND NORD STREAM SABOTAGE</li><li>RISKS ARE THAT LNG SUPPLIES ARE NOT STABLE (sounds like a threat to me)</li><li>WE SUPPLY ALL THE ENERGY WITHIN CONTRACTUAL VOLUMES</li><li>THERE IS NO POLITICS BEHIND NORD STREAM PROJECTS (hahaha)</li><li>RUSSIA IS READY TO SUPPLY GAS VIA NORD STREAM 2</li><li>WE ARE READY TO SUPPLY ADDITIONAL VOLUMES IN WINTER SEASON</li><li>USE OF SPOT PRICING MECHANISM WILL RESULT IN LOSSES OF $300 BLN FOR EUROPE</li><li>THEY PRINT MONEY TO TACKLE HIGH ENERGY PRICES</li></ul>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>U.S. mortgage interest rates rise to highest level since 2006</p><ul><li>MBA Mortgage Applications: -2% (Previous -14.2%) </li><li>

MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate: 6.81% (Previous 6.75%)</li></ul><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1580151861084319744?s=20&t=7hpZ0VCfAWhQuBvgX4Xr3A“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Reuters Note</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>With four weeks to go until the vote, polls and prediction markets point to a divided government the most likely outcome, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.</p><p>There is a 85% likelihood that Republicans gain control of the Senate, the House or both, and just a 15% likelihood that Democrats maintain unified legislative control.Historically, a divided Congress has been more favourable for stocks as many investors believe it makes sweeping reforms less likely to pass, keeping the investment backdrop more stable.“<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/equities/“ target=“_blank“ id=“9c7de710-0fba-425c-93e5-422427b92644_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>Equities</a> typically perform well following midterms as political uncertainty declines,“ GS strategists said.The S&P 500 has generated a median return of 3% through year-end and 17% during the 12 months following midterm elections, Goldman Sachs‘ analysis of the last 90 years showed.“However, we believe the election outcome will rank low on the list of macro drivers of equity market returns,“ strategists added.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1579793124700065792?s=20&t=CZTocCoIKgKS-w8xGTtpTw“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Reuters note</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The German government still expects a recession in 2023, sees GDP at -0.4% – govt sources</p><p>Now expects inflation at 8.0% in 2022, 7.0% in 2023 after gas price brake</p><p>Lets be honest, they’d be a laughing stock if they dint expect a recession </p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.