<p>ECB Minutes: <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2022/html/ecb.mg221006~a5f7fb03f3.en.html“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 7-8 September 2022</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/headlines/ecb-minutes-inflation-was-far-too-high-and-likely-to-stay-above-the-governing-council-s-target-for-an-extended-period-projected-inflation-path-remained-tilted-to-the-upside-over-the-entire-projection-horizon-06-10-2022″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Newsquawks Bitesize Post</a></p><p>Key Points:</p><p>Inflation was far too high and was expected to remain above the governing council’s target for an extended period of time.</p><p>A large number of members favoured raising the key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points.</p><p>Expectations for inflation remained stable, and wage growth remained moderate, with little evidence of second-round effects.</p><p>Over the entire projection horizon, the risks associated with the projected inflation path remained skewed to the upside.</p><p>The size of the upward revision in the staff inflation projection for 2024 was not deemed large enough to necessitate a more aggressive response.</p><p>The expected slowdown in economic activity would not be sufficient to significantly reduce inflation.</p><p>Without a timely reduction in monetary policy accommodation, inflationary pressures caused by euro depreciation may worsen.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>US Challenger Layoffs: 29.989k (Previous 20.485k)</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p> BoE: The move in gilt yields last week threatened to exceed the size of the cushion for many LDI funds.</p><p>They go on to say..Had BoE not intervened, a large number of pooled LDI funds would have been left with negative net asset value and would have faced shortfalls in the collateral posted to banking counterparties.This is basically an exercise by the BoE in making it clear that they singlehandedly saved the Gilt market – Some may beg to differ and side with ‚it was a storm in a tea cup‘ </p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577953767097602050?s=20&t=PlizH2fMlTkq9S3-dBknEQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>BOE’s Cunliffe: Closely monitoring LDI funds to ensure resilience</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577953712101900289?s=20&t=PlizH2fMlTkq9S3-dBknEQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>BoE says it will unwind gilt market intervention once risks have subsided</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp/“ target=“_blank“ id=“3a5ab7c1-ff09-45ea-87d4-eea6613bb754_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>GBP</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>Euro zone retail sales fell in August, data showed on Thursday, pointing to a weakness in consumer demand and underlining expectations of an approaching recession.</p><p>Eurozone Retail Sales YoY: -2% (Forecast -1.7%, Previous -0.9%)</p><p>The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell 0.3% month-on-month for a 2.0% year-on-year drop.Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.4% monthly fall and a 1.7% year-on-year decline.The fall in retail sales, seen as a proxy for consumer demand, underlines economists‘ expectations that the euro zone is likely to go in to a recession in the coming quarters, hit by the energy price shock created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/15131934/4-06102022-AP-EN.pdf/30dbcae1-1162-7035-4b3e-ae69a64df586″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Report</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577947731120852992?s=20&t=yYCAGKkWQUrhJQvFPGzPkQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Reuters</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/eur/“ target=“_blank“ id=“b0427fd7-674c-4ad1-b689-22d1f8b087b0_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>EUR</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>British businesses‘ expectations for consumer price inflation in one year’s time rose to 9.5% last month, up from 8.4% in August, a Bank of England survey showed on Thursday.</p><p>Life gets increasingly difficult for the fine folks on Threadneedle Street</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The Spanish central bank said on Wednesday it estimated the country’s economy expanded a scant 0.1% in the third quarter from the previous three months due to lower private consumption as the energy shock in Europe hit households.</p><p>“The rise in energy prices, which has gradually spread to an increasing share of goods and services, has reduced the purchasing power of households,“</p><p>The central bank said it also expected growth to slow „very significantly“ in the second half of this year and the first quarter next year, which would lead to a 1.4% growth rate in 2023, down from a previously expected 2.8%.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577616941690372096?s=20&t=wITftxxSwEcgElpPFZw3Gg“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Reuters Note</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The always awesome Newsquawk US Market Open: European bourses/US futures under pressure amid a firmer USD & further debt downside</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2669-us-market-open-european-boursesus-futures-under-pressure-amid-a-firmer-usd-further-debt-downside&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Note</a></p><p>Summary:</p><p>European bourses are under pressure following the strong gains seen in Tuesday’s session with fresh newsflow fairly limited heading into key US data, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%.</p><p>Stateside, ahead of those metrics which will be eyed for further clues around a ‚pivot‘, futures are under similar pressure</p><p>USD has benefited from a rebound in yields and perhaps on phycological/technical grounds, DXY nearing 111.00 to the detriment of peers</p><p>Core debt is pressured across the board with Gilts lagging despite upside from a well-received DMO outing; US yields firmer, though curve is slightly mixed</p><p>Crude benchmarks are currently dictated by broader risk and are modestly softer as such, though attention will turn to the OPEC gathering shortly</p><p>Consensus heading into OPEC is that there will be a sizeable production cut announced, the magnitude of which is unknown but source updates are becoming increasingly skewed towards the top-end of a 0.5-2.0mln range.</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include US Final PMIs, US ISM Services, ADP, OPEC, speech from Fed’s Bostic.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>US Mortgage Market Index Falls 14.2% To 218.7 In Week Ended Sept 30, Lowest Since 1997</p><p>Mortgage Applications: -14.2% (Previous -3.7%)</p><p>30-Yr Mortgage Rate: 6.75% (Previous 6.52%)</p><p>This makes for some pretty grim reading… However, in the age of ‚bad data allows the Fed to pivot sooner‘ ie Bad Data is Good For Markets, this could be read as Risk On</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The UAE is likely to support substantial oil production cuts proposed by Saudi Arabia and Russia at Wednesday’s Opec+ meeting in a blow to US efforts to try to stop the deal.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.ft.com/content/64d35a40-5144-44f6-afca-c8b88c9d0ad5″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Article</a>“Two people familiar with the discussions ahead of the meeting said the UAE was onboard despite a last-minute effort by the US and other western powers to talk the nation out of the deal. The Gulf state is among the most influential members of Opec+ outside of Saudi Arabia and Russia.“While they respect their [the US] opinion the organisation needs to do what is in their best interests,” one Gulf Opec source said on Wednesday ahead of the meeting, where the group is expected to announce plans to reduce output by 1mn-2mn barrels a day or more.The source added that the UAE had been contacted by the US and other western powers that oppose efforts to try and boost oil prices. The White House has indicated that it believes the cuts are unnecessary and come at a dangerous time for the world economy as it grapples with an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.“Given what we know from the previous chatter, this would be a vote for nearer the 2mbpd cut than the 1m</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>With Truss currently speaking at the Tory Party conference, some would have been hoping for some movement in GBP. Alas that doesn’t appear to be the case.I’m purposely showing the GBPEUR here as I want to focus on GBP and take active USD out of the equation for a second.</p><p>Truss‘ headline-worthy quotes, thus far:Economic growth hasn’t been strong enough in the UK.</p><p>My priorities are growth, growth and growth.</p><p>We need to be internationally competitive on tax.We will realise on the promise of Brexit.</p><p>By the end of the year, all EU red tape will be consigned to history.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.