On the daily chart below for
USDCHF, we can see that the pair has been ranging for a month now although it
keeps a bearish bias as the moving
averages act as resistance for the trend. USD/CHF had a pretty solid run to the
downside as the US regional banking crisis and the expectations for rate cuts
weakened the USD a lot.
The market now is watching how
fast inflation is expected to fall to the target as the fear of persistently
high inflation is still there. In fact, across all the other markets we’ve seen
a choppy price action trading into today’s US CPI report. Hot data won’t be
taken well, and the USD is expected to strengthen as the market should reprice
interest rates expectations.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the range between the 0.8858 support and the 0.9000 resistance. The moving averages have
crossed to the upside, so the bias at the moment is bullish and suggests that
we may get back to the top of the range, but of course this will be decided by
the data. The buyers are leaning against the red long period moving average as
it offered support in the past weeks and was pretty accurate in determining the
short-term trend within the range.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price action is choppy and confusing. There’s pretty much nothing
we can glean from this chart. We have only the top and the bottom of the range
as clear levels. That’s why today it’s all about the CPI with a hot reading
expected to boost the USD and a cold one to weaken it. Watch out!
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
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