XAU/USD Technical Analysis

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see the big rally in gold since the last Thursday. Everything started with <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-211k-vs-195k-expected-20230309/“>jobless
claims</a> where we saw the first miss after several months of strong beats and
the treasury yields fell as the market started to look at a possible turn in
the jobs market. </p><p>On Friday, the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-non-farm-payrolls-311k-vs-205k-expected-20230310/“>NFP
report</a> showed a higher-than-expected unemployment rate and lower than expected
wage gains. This caused an extension of the selloff in yields that intensified
as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fdic-takes-control-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230310/“>Silicon
Valley Bank</a> failed. The market started to fear another banking
crisis and we saw risk aversion across the board. </p><p>On Monday, the risk sentiment
remained on the backfoot and the market repriced lower future interest rates
expectations with rate cuts by the end of the year and at some point even no
hike at the March FOMC meeting. All these events decreased real yields and gave
gold the tailwind to rally. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> have now crossed to the upside in a sign that we may be in front of
another rally that could extend beyond the 2000 level.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price is now pulling back from stretched longs. The best level for
the buyers would be the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1864 with the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. One reason for the bigger pullback may be
that the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-cpi-60-yy-vs-60-expected-20230314/“>US
CPI</a> report
yesterday showed that inflation is still too high in US and the Fed may be
forced to keep hiking even if there are stresses elsewhere. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that we may have a bullish <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>flag
pattern</a> if the price manages to break the upper band of the channel. Buyers
will want to wait for the breakout to start piling in and push the price to new
higher highs. Sellers may want to lean on the 1902 level to position short
targeting the 1864 support. That will be the last line of defence for the
buyers. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

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