Watch the video for the key trading levels
for the week ahead for AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, and GBPUSD.

Last week AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD,
GBPJPY, and GBPUSD all finished down for the week. The first trading day of
July was very negative across all these pairs with AUDUSD closing below the
0.6826 monthly support level.

AUDJPY Daily chart:

Monthly support at 90.72 and 90.29,
resistance at 97.29.

Weekly support at 87.28, resistance at
94.31, 95.73, and 96.87.

Daily support at
91.95 and 91.16, resistance at 92.64 and 94.02.

Price
declined down from the 94.02-31 daily/weekly resistance area last week. Will price continue to decline and retest the 90.72-29 monthly
support levels this week?

AUDJPY daily chart 03-July-2022

AUDUSD Daily chart:

Monthly support at 0.6722 and 0.6671,
resistance at 0.6826, 0.6967, and 0.6991.

Weekly support at 0.6722, resistance at
0.6828.

Daily support at 0.6722, resistance at
0.6850 and 0.6869.

Price broke below the 0.6826 monthly
support level last week. Will price continue to decline and test the 0.6722 and
0.6671 monthly support levels this week?

AUDUSD daily chart 03-July-2022

EURJPY Daily chart:

Monthly support at 137.49 and 134.12,
resistance at 141.04 and 145.68.

Weekly support at 139.99 and 137.52,
resistance at 144.24.

Daily support at 139.38 and 138.31,
resistance at 141.39.

Price formed a triple top at the 144.24
weekly resistance level last week. Will price continue to decline and retest
the 138.31 daily support level this week?

EURJPY daily chart 03-July-2022

EURUSD Daily chart:

Monthly support at 1.0340, resistance at
1.0462, 1.0522, and 1.0635.

Weekly support at 1.0349, resistance at
1.0727 and 1.0787.

Daily support at 1.0359, resistance at
1.0469, 1.0601, and 1.0627.

Price declined down from the 1.0601 daily
resistance level last week. Will price continue to decline and test the 1.0340
monthly support level this week?

EURUSD daily chart 03-July-2022

GBPJPY Daily chart:

Monthly support at 158.21, resistance at
168.01.

Weekly support at 159.98 and 158.06,
resistance at 168.42 and 168.72.

Daily support at 161.85 and 161.00,
resistance at 164.64 and 166.93.

Price declined below the 164.64 daily
support level last week. Will price continue to decline and test the 159.98
weekly support level this week?

GBPJPY daily chart 03-July-2022

GBPUSD Daily chart:

Monthly support at 1.1986, 1.1958, and
1.1645.

Weekly support at 1.2074 and 1.1933,
resistance at 1.2155, 1.2195, 1.2251, and 1.2667.

Daily support at 1.1933, resistance at
1.2161, 1.2332, and 1.2407.

Price declined and retested the 1.1986
monthly support level last week. Will price continue to decline and test the
1.1933 weekly support level this week?

GBPUSD daily chart 03-July-2022

This content may have been written by a
third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability
as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss
arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other
information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and
does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can
rely.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

FX MAJORS WEEKLY OUTLOOK

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday: US Independence Day (holiday).
• Tuesday: RBA Monetary Policy announcement.
• Wednesday: US ISM Services PMI, FOMC Minutes.
• Thursday: Fed’s Waller and Fed’s Bullard speak.
• Friday: US Labour Market Report.

The week begins with a US holiday which should see lower liquidity and lower trading volumes and lead to some choppy price action. Nonetheless the very bad US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday and the revision in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow point to the US probably being already in recession. This coupled with a Fed that as of now cannot afford to pause or ease its policy tightening, should lead to more losses in risk assets and general risk aversion.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike the cash rate by 50 bps bringing it to 1.35%. The RBA stated that it is committed to do what is necessary to bring inflation down to target over time and the aggressiveness will be decided based on incoming data. From a trading perspective, in a synchronised global slowdown a commodity currency like the AUD suffers no matter how much the RBA hikes. The recent AUD spikes on RBA hikes were all eventually faded as you can see in the AUD/USD chart below. Will this be another fade?

FX MAJORS

On Wednesday the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to show another dip in the survey as the deteriorating economic environment weighs on activity. Note though that the services sector is not as cyclical as the manufacturing sector. During tough times, consumers slash spending first on the pricey manufactured goods like cars, furniture and so on, but they will do that much slower for services as there’s always demand for medical care, transportations, and communications.

That’s why the ISM Manufacturing PMI is a better forecasting tool of future economic conditions even though services make up for 80% of consumer spending. The market will be more focused on the prices sub-index to see if there’s some cooling on the inflation side, but even if there is, unless it’s a huge one, the economy is still headed for tough times exacerbated by tightening monetary conditions by the Fed.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes shouldn’t offer anything new regarding future policy actions, as the Fed is trying to be as transparent as possible when signalling its future policy moves, even if it has to supposedly give some inside info to a journalist right before a decision. Also, a key change in a line in their latest statement suggests that the Fed will go hard on fighting inflation even if it will cause some job losses.

On Thursday we will hear from Fed’s Waller (Hawk, Voter) and Fed’s Bullard (Hawk, Voter). They may give some comments on recent economic data, which the market may focus on to take clues about the aggressiveness of their future policy moves. Right now, it’s a debate between a 50 or 75 bps hike at the upcoming July meeting, although the debate takes a less bigger stage compared to the tightening during a recession.

Finally on Friday, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the latest labour market report. The market expects job gains to start cooling with the consensus looking at a 295K gain compared to the previous 390K. Of course, the main focus of the market now is inflation and recession, so the market will move more in case of big losses in jobs or increases in average hourly earnings, with the latter weighing more in the debate whether the Fed will raise rates by 50 or 75 bps at the next meeting.

In the bigger picture though, we are clearly in a recessionary cycle coupled this time with an aggressive Fed tightening. For the Dollar Smile Theory, the US Dollar generally appreciates during a synchronised global slowdown or when the US economy outperforms its peers. The USD has been racking up in gains for a year now and there’s little indication it shouldn’t keep on doing so. The EUR/USD chart below is on the brink of a breakout lower, which would reinforce calls of a parity between the two major currencies.

FX MAJORS EUR/USD

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin is down 9.2% over the past week, finishing around $19,400 and trading near 19,000 on Monday morning. Ethereum has lost 13.3% in the last seven days, while other top altcoins in the top 10 have fallen from 8.6% (BNB) to 18% (Solana).

According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalisation of the crypto market fell 9% over the week to $865bn. Bitcoin’s dominance index fell 0.3 points to 42.2%. The cryptocurrency fears index by Monday rose to 14 points.

Bitcoin has been under even pressure for almost all last week. A brief bounce at the beginning of the day on July 1 was more likely due to emotional excitement from the start of a new period (month, quarter, half-year) rather than fundamental changes in the situation. This rebound protected BTCUSD from updating lows.

Nevertheless, the global picture remains bearish as stock markets show no glimpses of tightening financial conditions by central banks. On the weekly charts, BTCUSD remains below the 200-week average, having failed a timid attempt to climb higher last week.

The RSI on the weekly charts remains oversold, which is a historical anomaly. Unfortunately for the bulls, this is not a sign of a better time to enter. Technically, a sustained return from extreme to norm would be a buy signal. The end of the second quarter of 2022 was the worst for bitcoin in 11 years.

FxPro’s Analysis: Bitcoin chart

Investor Michael Bury, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, admits that the current market situation is only the middle of a bearish cycle for BTC and equities.

Changpeng Zhao, chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, called the current collapse of the crypto market a good time to buy bitcoin for the long term. He said that if traders can hold out in the current bear market, their investments will multiply in the next bullish trend.

According to IntoTheBlock, retail investors have stepped up after bitcoin fell below $20,000. This category of cryptocurrency holders has been the most aggressive in buying during the recent sell-off.

El Salvador continues to buy bitcoins amid a falling market. This time, the country’s government spent about $1.5 million to buy 80 BTC at an average price of $19,000.

On the other hand, Bank of America reported that the bank’s customers investing in cryptocurrencies has fallen by more than 50% since November last year.

This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

Snippet via National Australia Bank:

• the market including NAB widely expecting another 50 bps hike to 1.35%.
• In his last outing two Fridays ago, Governor Lowe was reasonably explicit noting “we have a meeting in July, we’ll be discussing 25 or 50 again”.
• Robust retail sales and very strong job vacancies data last week only further strengthen the case to continue to move quickly away from emergency settings.

I posted earlier on ING also calling +50. 

• AUD approaches Tuesday’s RBA meeting with mostly headwinds – not much rebound expected

Also:

• WPAC: We expect the Board will decide to follow the 50bp rate increase in June with a further 50bp increase in July.
• UBS forecast 50bp rate hikes for the RBA in July
• ICYMI – RBA to raise the cash rate target by 50bp in July – BoA forecast

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At 1500 GMT

• Keynote speech
• ECB vice president Luis de Guindos
• Venue is the Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit

The European Central Bank is about to lift off with tightening. We may get some further clues from DeG. ALso this week, and will be eyed for more, are European Central Bank minutes for the June meeting. Released on Thursday.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.