Here is what could send the price of oil to $380 / barrel – JP Morgan on Russia revenge 0 (0)

JP Morgan analysts outline potential retaliation by Russia if the G7 manage to put together a mechanism to cap the price of Russian oil:

  • “The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might
    choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports.“
  • “It is likely that the government could retaliate by
    cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of
    the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”

Price impact:

  • A 3 million-barrel output cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London
    crude prices to $190
  • Worst-case scenario of 5 million could
    mean “stratospheric” $380 crude

Info comes via Bloomberg (gated)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Go to Forexlive

Newsquawk week ahead: Highlights include US jobs data, FOMC and ECB minutes, RBA 0 (0)

  • MON: German Trade Balance (May), EZ Sentix Index (Jul); US Independence Day.
  • TUE: RBA Announcement, South Korean CPI, EZ/UK/US Final Services and
    Composite PMI (Jun), US Durable Goods R (May).
  • WED: FOMC Minutes. German Industrial Orders (May), EZ Retail Sales (May), US
    ISM Services PMI (Jun).
  • THU: ECB Minutes, Australian Trade Balance (May), Swiss Unemployment (Jun),
    Canadian Trade Balance (May), US ADP National Employment (Jun), EIA STEO.
  • FRI: US Labour Market Report (Jun), Canadian Labour Market Report (Jun).

NOTE: Previews are listed in day-order

RBA Announcement (Tue):

The RBA is expected to increase rates for a third consecutive meeting
next week with the central bank forecast to deliver another 50bps hike in the
Cash Rate Target to 1.35%. As a reminder, the RBA raised rates by 50bps to
0.85% (exp. 25bps increase) at its meeting last month and noted inflation had
increased significantly, while it is committed to doing what is necessary to
ensure inflation returns to target over time. The Bank added that the Board
expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions
over the months ahead, with the size and timing of future interest rate
increases to be guided by incoming data and the assessment of the outlook for
inflation and the labour market. Since that meeting, RBA Governor Lowe has
sounded more hawkish on inflation which he suggested could hit 7% by Christmas
and does not believe it will drop until Q1 next year, while he stated it is
unclear how high rates will need to go, but suggested 2.50% was a reasonable
level. Furthermore, Lowe noted they discussed a 25bps or 50bps hike at the June
meeting and expect to discuss the same options this month as well. This subsequently
saw markets price out the chance of a more aggressive move and supports the
view that the central bank will maintain the current pace of 50bps which
Westpac expects for both July and August, while Goldman Sachs forecasts the RBA
to move by 50bps at each meeting through September.

FOMC Minutes (Wed):

At its June meeting, the Fed lifted rates by 75bps to 1.50-1.75%, and
said it continued to anticipate that ongoing hikes would be appropriate, adding
that it was strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective. A
key statement change saw the line “with appropriate firming in the stance of
monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2% objective
and the labour market to remain strong” removed and replaced with “the Committee
is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective.” The
statement gave no explicit signal regarding the size of the Fed’s July move,
although officials have been suggesting that it is likely to be a debate
between a 50bps and a 75bps rate hike. Money markets appear to be tilting
towards the latter, even after the May PCE report showed inflationary pressures
continue to cool. The updated economic projections pencil in rates rising to
3.25-3.50% by the end of this year; that implies the possibility of a 75bps
hike in July, followed by a 50bps hike in September, and then 25bps at its
November and December meetings. However, it could also be interpreted as three
50bps rate rises followed by a 25bps move. The forecasts see rates peaking at
3.75-4.00% in 2023, implying a front-loaded hiking cycle with the prospect of a
further two 25bps rate rises next year. The Fed then envisages rates falling
back in 2024. Fed’s Bullard, who votes in 2022, recently said that the
Committee’s playbook may look similar to the 1994 cycle, where aggressive rate
hikes were then followed by rate cuts the next year; the minutes will be looked
at to see if this is a widely held view on the Committee. Elsewhere, the
Committee raised its estimate of the neutral rate marginally to 2.5% from 2.4%,
which still implies that policy will move into restrictive territory by the end
of this year. Accordingly, the FOMC revised down its projections of growth to
1.7% this year vs its 2.8% forecast made in March, and has pencilled in growth
at the same rate next year, before rising in 2024 to the longer-run growth rate
of 1.9%. The projections suggest a soft landing, something Powell said in the
Q&A that he still thinks can be achieved, but did concede that outside
events have made it harder.

US ISM Services PMI (Wed):

The consensus expectation looks for the non-manufacturing ISM headline
to print 55.7 in June from 55.9 in May. However, analysts note difficulties in
using the S&P Global PMI data as a proxy, the services reading for June saw
the headline fall by just shy of 2 points to 51.6, signalling another softening
in the rate of output expansion at service providers. S&P said the pace of
increase was the slowest since January’s Omicron-induced slowdown. The report
noted weaker growth in business activity, driven by a decline in new orders.
The report also said that client demand had dropped for the first time since
July 2020, and at the steepest pace for over two years, while total new sales
were weighed by the quickest decrease in new export orders since December 2020.
Regarding the inflation metrics, average cost burdens increased markedly,
underpinned by soaring supplier, material, fuel, transportation and wage costs.
S&P said the rate of input price inflation was the softest for five months
and eased notably from May, but was much quicker than the series average.
“Similarly, the pace of output charge inflation softened and was the slowest
since March 2021,” and “although firms continued to pass-through hikes in costs
to clients, some mentioned concessions were made to customers.” Notably, the
data revealed that services providers’ backlogs of work fell for the first time
in two years, and that had a knock-on effect on the employment sub-index, which
fell to the lowest level in four months. “Inflationary pressures, hikes in
interest rates and weaker client demand all dampened service provider
expectations for output over the coming year,” S&P said, “sentiment
remained positive, but was at its lowest level since September 2020.”

ECB Minutes (Thu):

As expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on rates with the deposit rate,
main refi and marginal lending rates held at -0.5%, 0% and 0.25% respectively.
On rates, the ECB announced its intention to tighten by 25bps at the July
meeting. Beyond July, policymakers stated they will consider a larger increment
in interest rate hikes if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or
deteriorates. On the balance sheet, as expected, the Governing Council
announced its decision to end net asset purchases under the APP as of July 1st.
Note, the policy statement offered no fresh guidance on how it could deal with
the issue of market fragmentation as it commences its rate hiking cycle. The
2022 inflation outlook was upgraded to 6.8% from 5.1% with 2024 inflation seen
above target at 2.1% vs. prev. view of 1.9%. At the accompanying press
conference, President Lagarde was pressed further on how the Bank intends to
deal with fragmentation, to which she noted that the Bank can utilise existing
tools, such as reinvestments from PEPP and, if necessary, deploy new
instruments. Later in the press conference, Lagarde noted that there is no
specific level of yield spreads that would be a trigger for an
anti-fragmentation policy. When it comes to the decision-making process,
Lagarde stated that policymakers were unanimous in their views. From a more
medium-term perspective, the President was questioned on where the Governing
Council judges the neutral rate to be, however, she remarked that this issue
was deliberately not discussed. As ever, given the time lag between the
announcement and the publication of the accounts, traders will take greater
guidance from recent data points and commentary from officials. Furthermore,
when it comes to the issue of fragmentation, the ECB carried out an ad-hoc
meeting to address the matter and therefore the account will offer little in
the way of insight on that front.

Australian Trade Balance (Thu):

The May trade balance is expected at a surplus of AUD 10.60bln from
April’s AUD 10.495bln. Some desks highlight that over the past 12 months, the
Aussie monthly trade surplus has averaged around AUD 10.5bln. For the month,
both export and imports are expected to have gained. Westpac suggests coal
exports likely led the gains – on both a price and volume basis, whilst
services exports likely rallied on the national border reopening. Imports
likely rose – “This likely reflected both higher volumes, to meet rising
domestic demand, and higher prices, on a lower AUD and the surge in global
energy costs”, Westpac concludes.

US Labour Market Report (Fri):

Analysts expect the rate of job additions will continue to cool in June,
with the consensus looking for 295k payrolls to be added; that would be lower
than May’s 390k, which is lower than recent averages too (3-month average 408k,
6-month average 505k, 12-month average 545k). With Federal Reserve officials
emphasising that their focus will be on bringing inflation down, there is less
focus on the labour market for now, with the Street more focussed on how
aggressive normalisation of monetary policy will hit growth, and subsequently
the jobs market. Analysts see the jobless rate holding at 3.6% in June; the
Fed’s recently updated projections see the jobless rate ending this year at
3.7%, rising to 3.9% next year, and then 4.1% in 2024; combined with that, GDP
is expected to grow just 1.7% this year and next, below the trend rate. These
forecasts clearly acknowledge that the aggressive rate hikes will weigh on
growth and the labour market ahead, but officials have been talking-up the
strength of the economy, noting that the jobs market is strong at the moment.
As has been the case for many months now, traders will be carefully watching
measures of wage growth for signs of how the ‘second round’ effects are faring:
average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, matching the May rate.
Fed officials have recently been suggesting that the debate in July will be
between 50bps and 75bps, and any upside surprise in the wages data will
embolden calls for the Fed to raise rates by 75bps again on July 27th.
Currently, money markets are assigning an approximately 70% chance that rates
will be lifted by the larger increment, but if this metric were to surprise to
the downside, it could help pricing tilt back into the 50bps bucket.

This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.Try a 14-day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading
news as it happens.

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at

Go to Forexlive

This is a Crazy Crypto Trade Idea… 0 (0)

  • Some call it crazy, others call it a low-probability, high reward vs. risk trade
  • The logic? This is an idea based on an opinion of a higher timeframe premise, going for that higher timeframe take profit target, and setting a lower timeframe stop loss. But both have got sound, technical reasons, not random ones
  • Watch the video below for a trade idea for a leveraged trade idea on Ethereum (ETHUSD), based on that crazy logic.

Trade Ethereum at your own risk.

  • Investing revolves on risk and reward. Investors that hold hazardous assets and risk losing money should be rewarded more richly. More risk equals more possible profit for an investment
  • Risk and return are tightly correlated for most investments and asset classes. Every investor must balance risk and reward. Typically, when going for a high return vs risk, like shown in the ETHUSD trade idea in the above video, based on that technical analysis shown, traders pay a „price“ regarding the probablity of the trade to work out in their favor: The higher the reward, the lower the probability to win the trade. Still, some traders may want to aim for those big trades, accordng to their personality and strategy. The above shows an example.

Follow for bold, honest and interesting technical analysis and trade ideas that you’re probably not going to get anywhere else.

This article was written by ForexLive at

Go to Forexlive

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar and bonds go for a wild ride 0 (0)

  • June US ISM manufacturing index 53.0 vs 54.9 expected
  • US May construction spending -0.1% vs +0.4% expected
  • S&P Global final June US manufacturing index 52.7 vs 52.4 prelim
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 tracker falls deeper into negative territory
  • Crypto lener Voyager suspends withdrawals
  • BlockFi sells itself to FTX in earnout-laden deal
  • OPEC badly missed production quotas in June
  • Honda reports a sharp drop in June US auto sales, blames supply issues
  • GM warns that supply chain issues affected Q2 but re-affirms 2022 guidance
  • Baker Hughes US oil rig count 595 vs 594 prior
  • Fed’s Daly: Want to get to around 3.1% Fed funds at year end


  • Gold flat at $1806
  • US 10-year yields down 8.5 bps to 2.89%
  • WTI crude oil up $2.51 to $108.29
  • S&P 500 up 1.1%
  • JPY leads, AUD lags

This was a holiday-thinned trade with Canada out and many US traders heading out early for the long weekend but it was also the start of a new month of trade.

There were some massive moves in FX and bonds. The dollar and yen soared in Asia and Europe with the euro, pound and Australian dollar crumbling. The latter ran stops after busing the May low and fell to 0.6765, which is the lowest since June 2020.

In the bond market, 5-year yields were down 22 bps at the lows to 2.88%, a far cry from 3.62% on June 14. It’s a similar story across the curve as it bull flattens. The Fed funds market has taken down the terminal top to 3.34% in Feb and falling 50 bps over the remainder of the year from there.

The moves in the dollar and bonds both unwound to some extent. 5-year yields halved the decline while the dollar did the same.

EUR/USD fell as low as 1.0367 before bouncing to 1.0422. Cable was even more intense in a swan dive to 1.1971 before bouncing 130 pips (and still ending down 85 pips).

The commodity currencies turned around with the loonie finishing nearly flat with the help of oil and gas, far outperforming its commodity cousins. I’d caution on that trade as Canada was out.

The yen was the winner on the day as spread compression becomes the norm. The BOJ may have won the war if inflation starts coming down again and so do international bond yields. That will be an interesting one to watch in the days ahead.

This article was written by Adam Button at

Go to Forexlive

Crypto lener Voyager suspends withdrawals 0 (0)

The crypto lender was caught up in the 3AC collapse. 3AC had a loan of 15,250 BTC and $350 million USDC. Voyager says it’s ‚pursuing all available remedies for recovery‘ but 3AC is in bankruptcy so that’s going to be a long wait.

„This was a tremendously difficult decision, but we believe it is the right one given current market conditions,“ said Stephen Ehrlich, Chief Executive Officer of Voyager. „This decision gives us additional time to continue exploring strategic alternatives with various interested parties while preserving the value of the Voyager platform we have built together. We will provide additional information at the appropriate time.“

The company hired Moelis & Company and The Consello Group as financial advisors, and Kirkland & Ellis LLP as legal advisors. 

Moelis specializes in M&A and restructurings.

The market wasn’t expecting much from Voyager. The stock isn’t trading today because of a holiday in Canada but it’s been a precipitous fall since before the 3AC collapse.

The company entered into a definitive agreement with Alameda for a US$200 million cash and USDC revolver and a 15,000 BTC revolver on June 17.

On June 14, it said:

Voyager differentiates itself through a straightforward, low-risk
approach to lending and asset management by working with a select group
of reputable counterparties, which are all vetted through extensive due
diligence by its Risk Committee.It’s tough for crypto to find any kind of a bottom until we get all the bad news. Stuff like this makes crypto investors want to pull their funds.

This article was written by Adam Button at

Go to Forexlive

The big US dollar moves have now mostly unwound 0 (0)

There was a fierce bid for US dollars to start the month but it’s now largely reversed.

I could tie together a narrative around rates, Fed hikes and whatnot but I’m going to shrug here and put this on flows around the turn of the calendar.

I don’t know if that was European money scrambling for dollars or something else. But it ended abruptly after the European close.

Directionally, some of it makes sense with the market significantly shifting the terminal top of Fed funds down to 3.33% from +4% a couple weeks ago.

This article was written by Adam Button at

Go to Forexlive

You have two options 0 (0)

The market is navigating different outcomes and in the simplest terms, here’s how it shapes up.

1) High inflation with ongoing growth and Fed hikes above 4%

This is the scenario the market grappled with for most of the year and the results speak for themselves. It was the worst H1 for the S&P 500 since 1970 and the worst for the Nasdaq ever.

2) A recession but inflation under control

The word ‚recession‘ never sounds good to investors but I’d argue that done right, this is the better scenario. As the market has shifted its focus to recession, borrowing costs have come down and a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50% in Fed funds is priced in, coming down to 2.75% about 8 month later.

Unfortunately, markets have gotten drunk on cheap money for far too long and are hopelessly addicted now. Everything is leveraged. If rates top out and we can kick the can down the road on popping the bond bubble, then there’s scope for a ‚recession rally‘ as bizarre as that sounds.

The third scenario

The nightmare scenario is stagflation, where we get a recession and inflation doesn’t fall. That might be possible if the world continues to be short of commodities, or loses faith in central banks. I think we priced in a chance of this in the past few weeks but given how quickly consumer sentiment and industrial orders are declining, along with commodities, this has grown more remote.

Overall though, I don’t see a ‚recession‘ scenario as that bad, especially since I think the hit to the jobs market will be modest.

This article was written by Adam Button at

Go to Forexlive

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar, yen gain on softer risk mood 0 (0)


  • Aussie and kiwi technicals begin to crack again
  • USD/JPY pulled back towards 135.00 as the weekend draws near
  • GBP/USD has its sights set on 1.2000 again
  • Reminder: It will be a US holiday on Monday
  • Eurozone June preliminary CPI +8.6% vs +8.4% y/y expected
  • Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs 52.0 prelim
  • UK June final manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 53.4 prelim


  • JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
  • European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.6%
  • US 10-year yields down 2.4 bps to 2.950%
  • Gold down 1.1% to $1,786.92
  • WTI crude up 2.4% to $108.31
  • Bitcoin up 2.1% to $19,140

The selling in equities continues to play out even as we begin the new month/quarter, and that is weighing on the overall mood in markets. The 4th of July weekend coming up in the US may not leave much appetite for a switch in sentiment, so there’s that to consider for now.

In any case, stock futures were heavily sold coming into European trading with S&P 500 futures falling down by 45 points, or 1.3%, before cash markets opened in Europe. That set up for a sour time when the opening bell struck but stocks managed to pare some losses with regional indices turning higher for a brief period.

But as we look towards US trading now, risk appetite is sapped again and European stocks are lower with US futures modestly softer as well. S&P 500 futures are down 22 points, or 0.6%, currently.

The mood in Treasuries also pointed to a more risk-off tendency with yields keeping lower again. 10-year Treasury yields are keeping below 3% and that continues to keep the yen more bid ahead of the weekend.

USD/JPY fell from 135.20 to 134.75 early on before picking up to keep around 135.10-30 levels at the moment.

Elsewhere, the dollar strengthened across the board with the pound and the antipodeans suffering a brutal beatdown. GBP/USD fell hard from 1.2130 to 1.2030 while AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both facing key technical breaks to the downside with the former slipping by 120 pips to below 0.6800 (weakest since June 2020) and the latter down 85 pips 0.6156 (weakest since May 2020) on the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at

Go to Forexlive

Gold tumbles below $1,800 to fresh lows since January 5 (1)

The drop in the middle of May was thwarted as buyers held their ground at the $1,800 mark before the daily close. But now with the dollar going from strength to strength, even gold is finding it tough to stay afloat as commodities in general (industrial metals especially) are struggling over the past few weeks. It looks like precious metals are being hit hard this week with silver down 3% today to below $20 and its lowest since July 2020. Meanwhile, platinum has fallen to $860 and that is the lowest since November 2020.

Going back to gold, there is some light support around the swing region at $1,780-82 but further support is only seen out at the swing region around $1,753-59. Beyond that, the September 2021 lows around $1,721 will be the next target before $1,700.

This article was written by Justin Low at

Go to Forexlive

GBP/USD has its sights set on 1.2000 again 0 (0)

You’d be hard-pressed to find a day where the pound isn’t acting somewhat like a commodity currency these days. On a day where the aussie and kiwi are slumping as the technicals start to crack, the pound is also struggling being dumpstered.

Cable is down 0.9% to 1.2064 now as sellers resume the downside momentum and go in search of a push towards 1.2000 again.

Although the risk mood has improved considerably since the start of the session, there hasn’t been much change to sentiment in the major currencies space. The aussie and kiwi are hammered hard while the dollar and yen are firmer across the board. That is weighing on cable with a drop of over 100 pips today.

As mentioned before in the past two weeks, the defining range for cable is between 1.2000 and 1.2400. It looks like we could see sellers poised to try and test the former and a break below that will exacerbate further weakness for the pair with the March 2020 lows between 1.1410 to 1.1500 next in the firing line.

This article was written by Justin Low at

Go to Forexlive