• Prior +3.0%
• Market index vs 175.6 prior
• Purchase index vs 138.4 prior
• Refinance index vs 359.9 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate % vs 7.41% prior

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
  tightening have yet to be felt.
• The recent US CPI missed
  expectations across the board bringing the expectations for rate cuts
  forward.
• The labour market is
  starting to show weakness as Continuing Claims are now
  rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report
  missed across the board. Last week though, the US Jobless Claims beat
  forecasts by a big margin, although volatility in the data is normal.
• The latest US PMIs came
  basically in line with expectations with a miss in the Manufacturing index and
  a beat in the Services measure.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence yesterday beat expectations although the
  details about the labour market continue to weaken.
• The Fed members have been leaning on the
  hawkish side, but more recently the tone changed to a more neutral stance.
• The market doesn’t
  expect the Fed to hike anymore.

JPY

• The BoJ kept its monetary policy basically unchanged at the last meeting but formally
  widened the YCC to 1% on the 10-year JGBs stating that it will be a reference
  cap.
• Governor Ueda repeated once again that they won’t
  hesitate to take easing measures if needed and that they are not foreseeing
  sustainable price increases.
• The Japanese CPIlast week showed that inflation
  pressures are easing although they remain well above the BoJ’s 2% target.
• The latest Unemployment Rate remained unchanged near cycle lows.
• The Japanese Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction but
  the Services PMI ticked higher remaining in expansion.
• The latest Japanese wage data beat expectations. As a reminder
  the BoJ is focusing on wage growth to decide whether to tweak its monetary
  policy.
• The market expects the BoJ to keep
  interest rates unchanged at the next meeting as well.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see
that USDJPY is now approaching a key trendline around
the 146.50 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a
defined risk below the trendline to position for another rally into the highs.

The rate cuts expectations and
the consequent fall in Treasury yields have been weighing a lot on the US
Dollar lately which boosted the JPY as the unwinding of some carry trades and
the convergence of yield differentials favoured the Yen. As long as the market
continues to price in rate cuts for the Fed and the US data continues to
weaken, we can expect more JPY strength to come.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a nice
selloff yesterday following the less hawkish comments from Fed’s Waller and the
deteriorating labour market details in the US Consumer Confidence report. We
are now at key levels so the sellers might want to see a pullback before
positioning for more downside and target the break below the key trendline.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is pulling back at the moment. The sellers should lean on the downward
trendline around the 148.00 handle to position for another selloff into the
major trendline, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets and target the trendline around the 149.50 level.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we will get the US PCE and US Jobless Claims
data with the market likely focusing more on the latter given that we already
saw the latest inflation data with the US CPI report just two weeks ago. On
Friday, we conclude the week with the Japan Labour Market data and the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI which missed expectations by a big margin the last time.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• 🌎 2023 global GDP growth lowered to 2.9% (previously 3.0%)
• 🌎 2024 global GDP growth unchanged at 2.7%
• 🌎 2025 global GDP growth seen at 3.0% (first estimate)
• 🇺🇸 2023 US GDP growth improved to 2.4% (previously 2.2%)
• 🇺🇸 2024 US GDP growth improved to 1.5% (previously 1.3%)
• 🇪🇺 2023 Eurozone GDP growth unchanged at 0.6%
• 🇪🇺 2024 Eurozone GDP growth lowered to 0.9% (previously 1.1%)
• 🇬🇧 2023 UK GDP growth improved to 0.5% (previously 0.3%)
• 🇬🇧 2024 UK GDP growth lowered to 0.7% (previously 0.8%)
• 🇯🇵 2023 Japan GDP growth lowered to 1.7% (previously 1.8%)
• 🇯🇵 2024 Japan GDP growth unchanged at 1.0%
• 🇨🇳 2023 China GDP growth improved to 5.2% (previously 5.1%)
• 🇨🇳 2024 China GDP growth improved to 4.7% (previously 4.6%)

While the prospects of most major economies are seen improving, global growth forecast is still expected to slow from their previous forecast. The organisation says that advanced economies are headed for a soft landing with the US economy in particular holding up better than expected. That being said, they say that the risk of a recession is not off the table yet.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Economic confidence 93.8 vs 93.7 expected
• Prior 93.3; revised to 93.5
• Industrial confidence -9.5 vs -8.9 expected
• Prior -9.3; revised to -9.2
• Services confidence 4.9 vs 4.3 expected
• Prior 4.5; revised to 4.6

Euro area economic sentiment picks up in November, with an improvement to services sector conditions offsetting the decline in manufacturing. The latter is still very much in recession territory but so far the good news is that the overall economy is holding up better than expected when compared to the outlook during the summer this year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 43.33k; revised to 43.68k
• Net consumer credit £1.3 billion vs £1.5 billion expected
• Prior £1.4 billion

Gross lending fell to £16.2 billion in October, down from £18.1 billion in September as individuals repaid, on net, £0.1 billion of mortgage debt on the month – as opposed to £1.0 billion of net repayments in the month before. Meanwhile, the annual growth for consumer credit is seen increasing further to 8.1% – the highest since October 2018.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
  tightening have yet to be felt.
• The recent US CPI missed
  expectations across the board bringing the expectations for rate cuts
  forward.
• The labour market is
  starting to show weakness as Continuing Claims are now
  rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report
  missed across the board. Last week though, the US Jobless Claims beat
  forecasts by a big margin, although volatility in the data is normal.
• The latest US PMIs came
  basically in line with expectations with a miss in the Manufacturing index and
  a beat in the Services measure.
• The recent Fedspeak has been leaning on
  the hawkish side, but the recent data suggest that the Fed is likely done for
  the cycle.
• The market doesn’t
  expect the Fed to hike anymore.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged at the
  last meeting while stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s
  expected to decline further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive.
• The New Zealand recent inflation data missed expectations supporting the
  RBNZ’s stance.
• The latest labour market report showed a notable increase in
  the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth which is something that is
  likely to keep the RBNZ on the sidelines.
• The Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction
  followed by the Services PMI which fell back into contraction.
• The market doesn’t expect the RBNZ
  to hike anymore.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD reached
the key resistance zone
around the 0.61 handle where we can also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
resistance to position for a drop back into the lows. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking decisively higher to continue
targeting new highs.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD for
quite some time right into the key resistance zone. This is generally a sign of
weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it
might be another confirmation for the sellers that we might see at least a
deeper pullback, which is supported further by the rising wedge
formation. The first target for the sellers should be the base of the wedge
around the 0.5950 level with a further break likely leading to a drop into the
0.5860 level.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the price action around the resistance zone and the rising wedge
pattern. The buyers should lean on the bottom trendline to
position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.5950
level.

Upcoming Events

Today, we will get the latest US Consumer Confidence
report and it will be interesting to see how the US consumers see the labour
market. Tomorrow, we have the RBNZ rate decision where the central bank is
expected to keep rates unchanged. On Thursday, we will see the US PCE and US
Jobless Claims data with the market likely focusing more on the latter given
that we already saw the latest inflation data with the US CPI report just two
weeks ago. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI which missed expectations by a big margin the last time.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The online meeting will just be among OPEC members, believed to be scheduled for 1000 GMT on Thursday, ahead of the OPEC+ talks later in that day itself. It is said that the meeting will be for „internal matters“ rather than about discussing output policy.

Thereafter, the JMMC meeting will take place at 1300 GMT before OPEC+ ministers will be meeting up at 1400 GMT for the full meeting. It looks like they are going to try to settle whatever rift that is going on, and that is helping oil prices push up today with WTI crude up 1% to $75.60 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq Composite is losing some momentum as we
approach the cycle high and many key economic releases in the next few weeks
that will culminate in the FOMC rate decision on the 13th of
December. The market at the moment is focused mainly on the rate cuts
expectations, which continue to support the upside as long as the data doesn’t
deteriorate faster.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite
has lost some momentum as the index started to consolidate. We can expect some
profit taking around these levels after such an incredible rally in November
which might also provide a decent pullback for the buyers.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD recently
which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it might be a signal that we could indeed see at least
a deeper pullback soon. From a risk to reward perspective, the buyers would
have a much better setup around the 13700 support where we
can also find the confluence with the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of
the entire rally.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with the MACD since the breakout of the key trendline around
the 13700 level. The price yesterday broke below the lower bound of the rising
channel which might be the confirmation for the start of the pullback. The
sellers are likely to pile in to target the base of the channel around the
14040 level and upon a further break lower, aim for the support zone at the
13700 level.

Upcoming
Events

Today, we will get the latest US Consumer Confidence
report and it will be interesting to see how the US consumers see the labour
market. On Thursday, we will see the US PCE and US Jobless Claims data with the
market likely focusing more on the latter given that we already saw the latest
inflation data with the US CPI report just two weeks ago. Finally, on Friday,
we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which missed
expectations by a big margin the last time.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• In an uncertain period, geopolitical tensions are a headwind for growth
• US-China tensions could be more significant to the world than other geopolitical tensions

He’s not wrong there in a sense. All other geopolitical tensions tend to come and go and have short-lived impacts. However, a deepening divide in US-China relations will have a much bigger impact on the global economy especially in the years to come.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
  tightening have yet to be felt.
• The recent US CPI missed
  expectations across the board bringing the expectations for rate cuts
  forward.
• The labour market is
  starting to show weakness as Continuing Claims are now
  rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report
  missed across the board. Last week though, the US Jobless Claims beat
  forecasts by a big margin, although volatility in the data is normal.
• The latest US PMIs came
  basically in line with expectations with a miss in the Manufacturing index and
  a beat in the Services measure.
• The recent Fedspeak has been leaning on
  the hawkish side, but the recent data suggest that the Fed is likely done for
  the cycle.
• The market doesn’t
  expect the Fed to hike anymore.

CAD

• The BoC left interest rates at 5.00% as expected at the last meeting but
  remains prepared to raise rates further if needed.
• BoC Governor Macklem delivered a less hawkish speech in
  the press conference compared to his previous remarks.
• The recent Canadian CPI missed expectations across the
  board and the underlying inflation measures eased, which was a welcome
  development for the BoC.
• On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations
  across the board with negative figures in full-time employment and slowing wage
  growth, which is going to be another positive outcome for the central bank.
• The market doesn’t expect the BoC to
  hike anymore.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD broke
below the key trendline and
extended the drop into the 1.36 handle. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers would be better off waiting for a pullback as the price looks a bit
overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
break below the trendline last Friday and the retest yesterday before another
drop. The support zone
around the 1.3650 level will now be a key resistance as a break to the upside
might lead to a reversal back into the downward trendline around the 1.3750
level.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is bouncing around the recent low at 1.3594. The sellers are likely to
lean on the downward trendline with a defined risk above it to target the 1.34
handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into the 1.3750
level.

Upcoming Events

Today, we will get the latest US Consumer Confidence
report and it will be interesting to see how the US consumers see the labour
market. On Thursday, we will see the US PCE and US Jobless Claims data with the
market likely focusing more on the latter given that we already saw the latest
inflation data with the US CPI report just two weeks ago. Finally, on Friday,
we conclude the week with the Canadian Labour Market report and the Manufacturing
PMI, followed later by the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which missed expectations
by a big margin the last time.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.