US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 3 February +7.4% vs -9.0% prior 0 (0)

<ul><li>Prior -9.0%</li><li>Market index 249.5 vs 232.4 prior</li><li>Purchase index 190.0 vs 184.3 prior</li><li>Refinance index 549.3 vs 466.6 prior</li><li>30-year mortgage rate 6.18% vs 6.19% prior</li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Data, data, data… 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s been a real quiet session in Europe so far and the lack of any major economic releases today is one reason why that has been the case. In this environment, it’s all about the next big data and even Powell emphasised on it yesterday in saying that will determine the Fed’s reaction curve to the rates outlook. Here’s some food for thought over the past week:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-market-will-go-where-the-data-takes-it-20230202/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>The market will go where the data takes it</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/was-the-ecb-that-dovish-yesterday-20230203/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Was the ECB that dovish yesterday?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/is-the-market-just-scaring-itself-or-is-the-fear-justified-20230206/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Is the market just scaring itself or is the fear justified?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/that-powell-feeling-20230208/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>That Powell feeling</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The US consumer price inflation data next week can’t come soon enough.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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USD/JPY to 120 looks like the target this year – ING 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>ING notes that:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“The Bank of Japan is now garnering much more focus than it has in years. Most pressing is the replacement of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who leaves in April. A successor will be presented to parliament on 10 February. The favourite, Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya, is seen as the dovish continuity candidate.” </p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“Any surprise choice of the more hawkish Hiroshi Nakaso could probably send the Yen a lot stronger, with pressure building for 10-year JGB yields to burst above their current 0.50% ceiling.” </p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“USD/JPY has mainly been driven by the weaker dollar story, but 120 looks like the target this year, helped by the BOJ and lower energy prices.”</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, it’s a trade that I would say that timing is also somewhat important as rate differentials are still very much in favour of the dollar at the moment (them swaps can be painful).</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Breaking News: Finvasia Group Secures Investment Banking Licence 0 (0)

<p class=“MsoNormal“>After taking the fintech industry by storm with its thought-provoking technology, Finvasia Group makes strides into an industry led by big names.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On 12th January 2023, the global fintech industry leader Finvasia Group obtained its Investment Banking Licence from the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius (FSC). </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Regarded as one of the prominent regulators for the non-bank financial services sector and global business, the FSC oversees the activity of operators in the financial services sector, including Provident Funds, Superannuation Funds, Virtual Asset Service Providers, and other Investment Service Providers.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Sarvjeet Virk, Finvasia Group Co-founder and CMD said: “Obtaining the FSC Investment Banking Licence is a crucial milestone for Finvasia Group, opening a new chapter in our company’s history. This is only the beginning of an even more exciting journey, allowing us to ramp up our financial services offering globally.”</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Established in 2009 in Canada, Finvasia set out to be one of the world’s leading asset management companies overseeing and growing the portfolios of large corporations and global hedge funds. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Seeing sustained growth, in 2011, the investment firm forayed into the Indian capital markets as a Financial Institutional Investor (FII). The volumes witnessed by the company were so large at that time that acquiring requisite regulatory licences from India’s top exchanges, NSE, BSE, MCX, NCDEX and AMFI, seemed like an organic progression.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>With all these licences in place, co-founders and brothers Sarvjeet Singh Virk and Tajinder Virk, started exploring India’s retail trading segment. Observing the systemic flaws and the frequent malpractices of middlemen and brokers’ vested interests in churning trades and topping up spreads to earn higher commissions, they decided to take a different turn.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Promoting a technology-enabled, and thus fair and transparent approach to trading and investing, Finvasia launched and acquired a number of flagship brands with a resounding name in India and internationally, including Shoonya, ZuluTrade, Fxview,AAAFx, CapitalWallet, ActTrader, to only name a few.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Adding the investment banking licence to its already large spectrum of approvals, Finvasia Group launches into an industry associated with exclusive investment banks such as Charles Schwab, Blackrock, Vanguard, Lloyds, Barclays, UBS and others. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Tajinder Virk, Finvasia Co-founder and CEO said: “It is a great step forward for Finvasia Group and another opportunity for us to carry our vision to create a global financial ecosystem at Finvasia. An investment banking licence is one of the notable financial regulations that a financial institution and fintech group such as ours can attain.”</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Under its FSC licence, the fintech and financial services group will offer the following services:</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>● Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer including underwriting)</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>● Investment Adviser (Unrestricted) Licence</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>● Investment Adviser (Corporate Finance Advisory)</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>● Asset Management</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>● Distribution of Financial Products</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Notably, the FSC licence coverage expands on all Finvasia brands. The company has not yet disclosed when these services will become available or which brands will facilitate access to which of these exclusive financial services and products. For more information about the company, please visit <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://finvasia.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>https://finvasia.com/</a>.</p><p>About Finvasia</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Finvasia is a multi-disciplinary, multinational organisation that owns and operates over a dozen brands across financial services, technology, real estate and healthcare verticals.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Over the last 13 years of its history, Finvasia has managed funds for some of the notable hedge funds of the Wall street, operates the first and only commission free ecosystem for listed and fee based financial products in India, provided technology to some of the notable listed and unlisted financial services entities across the globe and has catered to over a few million clients in over 180 countries directly or via one of its subsidiaries.</p><p class=“MsoNormal text-align-start“>The team comprises over 350 employees that work in physical offices across India, the UK, Greece, Cyprus, Canada and USA. Finvasia, along with its subsidiaries and sister concerns, is registered with a gamut of regulatory bodies across the world in various capacities.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

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Dollar slightly on the softer side on the day 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It has been a poor start to the new year for the dollar but the bulls managed to draw a line in the sand to the declines late last week. The move was helped by the strong US jobs report and after a bit of a recovery, we are starting to see that momentum wane since late yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As things stand, we’re sort of caught in a position where there isn’t much to lean on in terms of the technicals for dollar pairs at the moment. The charts will better explain the situation.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For EUR/USD, sellers defended the 1.1000 mark and on the weekly outlook, they also defended a firm break above the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the downswing since 2021 at 1.0942. Adding to that, there is also key resistance just above the 1.1000 mark in the form of its 100-week moving average (red line) at 1.1058 currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Those are all key upside levels to watch and buyers require a break above that to really extend the momentum towards 1.1200 next.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But the recent drop perhaps has more room to extend further, with the corrective move seeing little in the way before a potential drop towards the first week of January low near 1.0500. That means EUR/USD has roughly a 500 pips range to play around now and price action is right smack in the middle of that.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Looking over to GBP/USD, the pair has failed to try and get above its December highs at 1.2443-46 with little help from the BOE. Amid the recent dollar rebound, it has fallen back to just under 1.2000 yesterday before recovering a little to near 1.2100 today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The resistance noted above is the key upside level to watch for any extension higher while downside momentum remains contained unless sellers can breach 1.2000 and the 200-day moving average (blue line) at 1.1945. Those are the battle lines for cable at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/JPY has essentially closed the gap higher from the start of the week after the retreat yesterday. The jump higher on Monday struggled to get above the 11 January high at 132.87 and sellers are capitalising to try and keep the downside momentum running.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For now, the pattern of lower highs, lower lows is somewhat still intact and I would argue that it would require buyers to break 135.00 to really invalidate that sequence.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Then, we have AUD/USD which saw its strong gains since the turn of the year limited by the August highs at 0.7125-36. Since then, it has been a sharp retreat to below 0.6900 at the start of this week before recovering some poise in the past few sessions to try and look towards 0.7000 again.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>However, key resistance still resides in the August highs as noted above while short-term support at 0.6855-70 will be one to watch before the 200-day moving average (blue line) comes into play at 0.6805. That essentially leaves a roughly 300 pips range for the pair to roam around and again, we’re more or less right in the middle of that at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>To sum up, the dollar selloff since the start of the year has encountered a pause but the greenback itself is unable to keep the rebound going in the last few sessions. That is leaving for a bit of a power struggle in the technicals for now, with there being little key levels for traders to lean on for a fresh conviction.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In short, FX traders could really use with a trigger or some more convincing market flows to really guide the playbook at the moment. And we might not get there until the US CPI data next week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Fed’s Kashkari: If financial conditions are easier, we would have to do more on rates 0 (0)

<ul><li>I am more cautious than markets on rate path</li><li>Especially when there is still strong wage growth and other indicators</li><li>Housing market is starting to show signs of life again, makes our job harder</li><li>It means we would have to do more with our other tools</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is gaining on his remarks with EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the lows for the day, around 1.0698 and 1.1972 respectively. Kashkari is a voting FOMC member this year, so these remarks are somewhat notable. It seems like the lack of impact from rate hikes on the jobs market is making Kashkari stick to his view that they still need to stay on the current path.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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China president Xi: Will strive to achieve overall improvement in economic operations 0 (0)

<ul><li>Will further guide business entities to strengthen confidence, stabilise expectations</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Some token remarks but as you can see, the language put out is still one that is hinting more towards a recovery in the economy for now. Besides, Xi probably has more worrying dynamics to focus on in trying to achieve his common prosperity goal.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Fed’s Kashkari: Nobody should overreact to one report 0 (0)

<ul><li>Not changing my forecast for rates for now</li><li>Still sees rate path moving towards around 5.40%</li><li>Wishes to see more evidence that underlying <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a> was trending down more</li><li>Services side of the economy is still very robust</li><li>Hard to imagine strong jobs growth can occur with wage growth moderating</li><li>We haven’t done enough to bring the labour market into balance</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>We shall see if Powell builds on this to also comment on the hot US jobs report from Friday last week. Essentially, Kashkari is saying that nothing has changed with regards to his outlook on the economy and rate path. Despite saying that „nobody should overreact to one report“, he is stating that they „haven’t made enough progress to declare victory“.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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ECB’s Villeroy: We are not very far from the peak of inflation 0 (0)

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Does not think ECB has to choose between fighting inflation and avoiding a recession</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The better economic environment makes our monetary task easier</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Is peak inflation the new ‚transitory‘ talk? We may very well be heading towards that direction it would seem.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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USD/JPY lower on the day as downside trend holds 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The start of the week saw a gap higher in the pair as it seems like the government is teeing up BOJ deputy governor Amamiya to be the successor to Kuroda at the central bank. While the jump is encouraging, it still doesn’t really take away from the downside trend that has been persisting since late October last year.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The sequence of lower highs, lower lows is still relatively intact and I would argue that it will take a push back above 135.00 from here to invalidate that pattern and pose some added questions.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Otherwise, as mentioned <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/mind-the-gap-20230206/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>, there are still reasons for sellers to stick with their conviction for a push lower in USD/JPY in the months ahead.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The push lower today isn’t much as it just eats a bit into the gap higher from yesterday. All eyes will be on Fed chair Powell’s speech/interview later today but just be mindful that if there are more headlines on the potential next BOJ governor, that will also impact the yen side of the equation.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As things stand, there is still ongoing pressure on 10-year JGB yields at the 0.50% ceiling and that continues to tell the story that markets remain convinced of some form of policy change by the Japanese central bank down the road.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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