ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steadies as risk slumps amid month-end focus 0 (0)


  • Dollar holds more mixed with month-end, quarter-end in focus
  • Risk appetite sapped as the session gets underway
  • France June preliminary CPI +5.8% vs +5.7% y/y expected
  • Germany June unemployment change +133k vs -6k expected
  • Germany May retail sales +0.6% vs +0.5% m/m expected
  • Germany May import prices +0.9% vs +1.6% m/m expected
  • UK Q1 final GDP +0.8% vs +0.8% q/q second estimate
  • UK June Nationwide house prices +0.3% vs +0.5% m/m expected


  • JPY leads, EUR lags on the day
  • European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 1.5%
  • US 10-year yields down 5.6 bps to 3.037%
  • Gold down 0.7% to $1,805.33
  • WTI crude down 0.9% to $108.84
  • Bitcoin down 5.9% to $18,995

A glance at markets would suggest a typical risk-off kind of day but that hasn’t really translated to much significant action in FX, for the most part at least.

Equities slumped early on with US futures being pummeled lower as the focus rests on month-end and quarter-end trading. That dragged European stocks down as well, erasing a lot of the good work from last week.

Treasuries were bid throughout with 2-year yields dipping back below 3% and commodities were also sold, with gold and oil both looking rather heavy on the session. Elsewhere, even Bitcoin slumped back below $20,000 and is in a battle to try and thwart obscurity at the moment.

The yen was a notable gainer on the session but a push lower in USD/JPY to 136.00 was quickly bid back up to 136.20-30 levels, as it is now – still down 0.2% on the day. The euro lagged as it continues to struggle for love from investors with EUR/USD falling back below 1.0400 for the first time in two weeks in a drop from 1.0450 to 1.0385.

GBP/USD was mostly little changed but is seen now down 0.2% to near 1.2100 as the dollar keeps a modest advance after a slow start. USD/CHF also recovered to push to 0.9600 only to drop back to 0.9570-80 levels now.

Against commodity currencies, the dollar is mostly little changed though USD/CAD is back up above 1.2900 with the help of some selling in oil. WTI crude is down 0.9% to $108.84 currently.

Well, it’s all about getting over the month-end and quarter-end hump today. But with tomorrow being a Friday and a long weekend in the US beckoning (Monday is 4th of July), it may be tough to read into much of the moves before next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at

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Dollar holds more mixed with month-end, quarter-end in focus 5 (1)

I never quite like the uncertainty and potential messiness that month-end flows have to offer. Sure, they’re great to fade but it’s never a guarantee especially now when there are also so many other moving parts in the market.

Risk tones are keeping softer on the day with European indices down between 1.7% to 2.3% while S&P futures are down 1.3% on the session currently. Treasury yields are holding softer but that has yet to translate to much meaningful action in major currencies, at least in my view.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0415 after a bit of a climb to 1.0460 earlier and sellers are looking to pressure the double-bottom around 1.0365-70 on the charts:

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 136.30 after having hit a low of 135.97 earlier in the day with little conviction despite the more dour risk sentiment. Even commodity currencies are little changed against the dollar on the day.

The only decent mover is the franc as it gives back the gains from yesterday with USD/CHF rising up 0.4% to near 0.9600. EUR/CHF is also trading back up from 0.9970 to near 1.0000 again at the moment.

It’s tough to really get much conviction out there today and with month-end and quarter-end in focus, it will be tougher to digest any moves as well. Not only that, it will be a long weekend in the US with the 4th of July being a holiday and that will also make for a tricky close to the week tomorrow before the weekend.

This article was written by Justin Low at

Go to Forexlive