• All eyes turn to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation next
• USD/JPY volatility stays in focus after the bounce yesterday
• US futures continue to pull higher on the day
• France July consumer confidence 91 vs 90 expected
• Eurozone consumers see inflation at 2.8% in the next 12 months – ECB survey
• Trump wants a weaker dollar but will he get his wish?

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.7%
• US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.236%
• Gold up 0.4% to $2,373.24
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $76.85
• Bitcoin up 3.0% to $67,231

Markets are taking a bit of a breather today, following the volatile risk selloff in the last few days.

Equities are faring better with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.7% as tech shares are finding some respite. European indices are also holding higher, with the French CAC 40 index seen up 0.9% though still largely down on the week.

In FX, USD/JPY is also keeping with the overnight bounce in a push to 154.70 from around 153.80 earlier in the session. The 100-hour moving average for the pair is seen at 154.83 and will be a key near-term level to watch before the weekend.

As we see traders sense some relief, AUD/USD is also seen higher by 0.3% to 0.6560 while USD/CHF is also up 0.2% to 0.8835 on the day. The latter fell to its lowest since March yesterday but staved off a firm break below 0.8800 at least.

In other markets, gold is also up 0.4% to $2,373 while Bitcoin is up roughly 3% to $67,231 currently.

It’s all pointing to just a bit of respite as all eyes turn to the US PCE report next. That will be the make or break for overall sentiment before we close out the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Broader markets are seeking a respite today and if that is to hold, it will need the next key US inflation indicator to play ball. So far, risk trades are sensing some relief today after a rough week. But can it hold through until the weekend?

The expectation for the US PCE price index is for the monthly reading to come in at +0.1% for both the headline and core estimates. Meanwhile, the annual reading is expected to be at +2.5% for both the headline and core estimates as well. However, Goldman Sachs argues that we could see the core reading be at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y with the latter unchanged from May.

The narrative at the moment is that the disinflation process in the US is continuing to take hold. However, it is moving at a rather gradual pace. And given the circumstances, there might be bumps in the road as per what policymakers are expecting as well.

So, even with a 2.6% reading in the core annual estimate today, it’s not a major setback to the Fed.

But with markets pretty much sitting on edge this week, any readings above that could easily spook investors. And all of the early gains we’re seeing in stocks and risk could be in jeopardy before the weekend comes along.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.