<ul><li>I am more cautious than markets on rate path</li><li>Especially when there is still strong wage growth and other indicators</li><li>Housing market is starting to show signs of life again, makes our job harder</li><li>It means we would have to do more with our other tools</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is gaining on his remarks with EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the lows for the day, around 1.0698 and 1.1972 respectively. Kashkari is a voting FOMC member this year, so these remarks are somewhat notable. It seems like the lack of impact from rate hikes on the jobs market is making Kashkari stick to his view that they still need to stay on the current path.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Not changing my forecast for rates for now</li><li>Still sees rate path moving towards around 5.40%</li><li>Wishes to see more evidence that underlying <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a> was trending down more</li><li>Services side of the economy is still very robust</li><li>Hard to imagine strong jobs growth can occur with wage growth moderating</li><li>We haven’t done enough to bring the labour market into balance</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>We shall see if Powell builds on this to also comment on the hot US jobs report from Friday last week. Essentially, Kashkari is saying that nothing has changed with regards to his outlook on the economy and rate path. Despite saying that „nobody should overreact to one report“, he is stating that they „haven’t made enough progress to declare victory“.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Will further guide business entities to strengthen confidence, stabilise expectations</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Some token remarks but as you can see, the language put out is still one that is hinting more towards a recovery in the economy for now. Besides, Xi probably has more worrying dynamics to focus on in trying to achieve his common prosperity goal.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Does not think ECB has to choose between fighting inflation and avoiding a recession</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The better economic environment makes our monetary task easier</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Is peak inflation the new ‚transitory‘ talk? We may very well be heading towards that direction it would seem.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The start of the week saw a gap higher in the pair as it seems like the government is teeing up BOJ deputy governor Amamiya to be the successor to Kuroda at the central bank. While the jump is encouraging, it still doesn’t really take away from the downside trend that has been persisting since late October last year.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The sequence of lower highs, lower lows is still relatively intact and I would argue that it will take a push back above 135.00 from here to invalidate that pattern and pose some added questions.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Otherwise, as mentioned <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/mind-the-gap-20230206/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>, there are still reasons for sellers to stick with their conviction for a push lower in USD/JPY in the months ahead.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The push lower today isn’t much as it just eats a bit into the gap higher from yesterday. All eyes will be on Fed chair Powell’s speech/interview later today but just be mindful that if there are more headlines on the potential next BOJ governor, that will also impact the yen side of the equation.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As things stand, there is still ongoing pressure on 10-year JGB yields at the 0.50% ceiling and that continues to tell the story that markets remain convinced of some form of policy change by the Japanese central bank down the road.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.