The major indices are closing mixed today with the Dow Industrial Average average fearing the worst. The NASDAQ index eked out a small gain for the day. The S&P was lower.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• Dow industrial average fell -157.50 points or -0.47% at 33508.86
• S&P index -11.46 points or -0.27% at 4288.23
• NASDAQ index rose 18.04 points or 0.14% at 13219.31

For the month of September, all three major indices closed lower. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices had the worst trading month in 2023 (and worst month since December 2023). Looking at the month declines:

• Dow industrial average fell -3.50%
• S&P index -4.87%
• NASDAQ index fell -5.81%

Today is also the closing level for the 3rd quarter, and each of the major indices closed lower

• Dow Industrial Average fell -2.60%. That was the 1st negative quarter since the 3Q of 2022
• S&P index fell -3.65%. That too was the 1st negative quarter since the 3Q of 2022
• NASDAQ index fell -4.12%, which was the first negative quarter since the 4Q of 2022

For the trading year – with one more quarter to go):

• Dow industrial average is up 1.09%
• S&P index is up 11.68%
• NASDAQ index is up 26.30%

Interest rates moved higher this quarter – especially out the yield curve – which helped to depress stock levels:

• 2-year yield rose 15.8 basis points or 3.22%
• 5-year yield rose 46.2 basis points or 11.10%
• 10-year yield moved up 73.8 basis points or 19.20%
• 30-year yield rose 84 basis points or 21.71%
• The 2 – 10 year spread steepened by 58 basis points, but is still negative by -47 basis points
• The 2 – 30 year spread steepened by 69 basis points, but is still negative by -35 basis points

In other markets:

• Crude oil for the quarter rose $20.27 or 28.68%
• Gold prices this quarter fell $-71.50 or -3.733%
• Silver prices fell 59.6 cents or -2.62%.
• Bitcoin fell $-3535 or 11.61%. Bitcoin still has another 2 days of trading before it’s month end.

In Forex for the 3Q, the US dollar was higher against all the major currency pairs with the largest gain versus the GBP. The smallest gain was averse the CHF (2.28%).:

• The US dollar index rose 328 pips to 106.204. That’s a gain of 3.19%
• EURUSD fell -340 pips or -3.16% (USD higher)
• USDJPY rose 515 pips or 3.57% (USD higher)
• GBPUSD fell -491 pips or -3.87% (USD higher)
• USDCHF rose 204 pips or 2.28% (USD higher)
• USDCAD rose 340 pips or 2.56% (USD higher)
• AUDUSD fell -223 pips or -3.35% (USD higher)
• NZDUSD fell -143 pips or -2.32% (USD higher)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In this video, I take a look at the NZDUSD and outlines the key technical levels in play heading into the new trading week starting October 2, 2023.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY had a volatile down and up trading day with the full 100 pip move to the downside in the first half of the day, nearly fully retracted in the 2nd half of the day.

The low price today moved to the 200-hour moving average and the picture set midpoint of the move up from last week’s low at 148.507. Support buyers leaned against that level, and pushed the price higher. After trading above and below the 100-hour moving average for a few hours, traders based against the level, and pushed higher. That move to the upside stall just short of the high from earlier today near 149.50.

Going into next week, the 100-hour movie at 149.156 will be the close support and will be a barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish.

A move to the downside would have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement at 148.79, and then the 200-hour moving average at 148.606 (the moving higher).

On the top side, getting above the high price from yesterday and today at 149.50, would open up the door toward the high for the week at 149.70, followed by the natural resistance at 150.00 level.

If the 150.00 natural resistance target can be broken, I would expect further upside momentum.

Buyers are more in control with the price above the 100-hour moving average and after holding the 200-hour moving average. If the sellers are to take more control they need to get below both those moving averages and stay below..

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Oil is near the lows of the day, down 96-cents but still has some breathing room in what looks like it will be another weekly close above $90.

Still, it feels like something of a loss for the bulls, or at least a loss of momentum. We touched $95 early on Thursday before giving back more than $4 and are on track to finish flat on the week.

That, combined with the early-week selling paints a prominent doji star on the weekly chart. That’s a bit of a red flag about the potential for a reversal and also a sign that volatility will stay high.

I would be more cautious on the downside here for five reasons:

1. It’s a new month/quarter on Monday and that could shift allocations. Overall, funds are light on energy, so that could end up being good but a new quarter can change the trend and the trend in Q2 was undoubtedly bullish.
2. All OPEC+ risks are to the downside. All it will take is a small hint that OPEC is thinking about pumping more and oil will fall
3. Similarly, the 2024 is an election year and the temptation will be for the Biden admin to tap the SPR
4. Gasoline cracks are plunging right now. I think that’s more about refineries and them running hotter and changes to winter gas ahead of maintenance but it could reflect demand. Diesel is still rock solid but something is changing in gasoline and any change from the status quo in oil is bearish.
5. October, seasonally, is by far the worst month for front month oil

I think that paints a compelling picture for caution.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.