Just last week, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan talked about how „quiet“ the Middle East was.

„I emphasize for now, because all of that can change, and the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades,“ he said.

It’s not anymore.

Hamas launched a massive attack against Israel from Gaza, far more than anything in decades. The images are horrific from what was an incredibly-coordinated attack that was somehow completely missed by Israeli intelligence. It’s still far from clear what was done and the fallout but Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas wasn’t hyperbole; officials from Israel promised to leave Gaza in ruins.

Efraim Halevy, the former head of Mossad, Israel’s Intelligence Service, told CNN:

“The number of missiles they have launched within less than 24 hours is
over 3,000. This is beyond imagination from our point of view, and we
didn’t know they had this quantity of missiles, and we certainly didn’t
expect that they would be as effective as they were today.“

Fingers are being pointed in every direction, particularly at Iran and it comes just as the US was trying to broker a defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Given what’s likely to be a long and brutal response against Hamas, it will now be difficult for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel as part of that deal.

In general, Israel-Palestine conflicts don’t move global markets but the scope of this is now so large and has so much potential to spread beyond Gaza that markets are sure to take notice on Monday and that likely means a bid in safe haven assets like gold and Treasuries; along with commodities that could be affected like oil. Also expect a bid in the US dollar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s all happening in the Middle East once again this weekend. A surprise attack by Hamas on Israel set off a strong response in something that will rekindle instability in the region. I doubt Israel headlines move markets but the violence comes at the same time that the US looking for some kind of peace deal involving Saudi Arabia.

The WSJ’s Summer Said reports that Saudi Arabia has told the White House it would be willing to boost oil production early next year if crude prices are high. That would be part of a deal where Saudi Arabia would recognize Israel and get a defense pact with Washington.

There were rumors of a Saudi deal earlier in the week and that was cited as one of the reasons for the drop in oil prices.

The deal would include US support for a Saudi civilian nuclear program, and US approval for sophisticated weapons sales to Saudis.

The WSJ report said the US hopes to broker a deal in the next six months and that Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US have agreed on the broad contours of a deal. The deal may need Congressional approval and the US emphasized to Saudi Arabia that it would need to repair its image in the US, presumably by pumping more oil.

This will make for an interesting open to the oil market in the new week. The conditional part of the agreement that ‚if oil prices are high‘ is doing a lot of work in this report because ‚high‘ is certainly a matter of opinion. I’m certain Saudi Arabia doesn’t consider the $84.58 closing price of Brent on Friday as ‚high‘. So is that threshold $100? Or $120? Saudi Arabia also needs to balance its relationship with OPEC and Russia while funding its mega-projects.

There could be an element of ’sell the rumor, buy the fact‘ on this report. Also note that it was the same reporter who touted a rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE earlier this year, saying „Emirati officials say the U.A.E. is having an internal debate about leaving OPEC“. There’s been no evidence since to substantiate that but it was part of a narrative that sank oil prices to $65 from $80 at the time. Finally, Summer Said also reported in November 2022 that OPEC was considering a production hike at the December 4, 2022 meeting, just after cutting by 2 million barrels per day. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman denied the reports and said a production cut was possible instead but production was ultimately left unchanged.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.