• Dollar stays poised so far in European trading
• Equities hit the skids as higher yields is still the name of the game
• Gold stays in retreat, set for sixth straight day of losses
• Japan finance minister Suzuki: Closely watching FX moves with strong sense of urgency
• Japan’s Matsuno says closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency
• Eurozone September final manufacturing PMI 43.4 vs 43.4 prelim
• UK September final manufacturing PMI 44.3 vs 44.2 prelim
• UK September Nationwide house prices 0.0% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• Switzerland September manufacturing PMI 44.9 vs 40.5 expected
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 29 September CHF 476.3 bn vs CHF 475.1 bn prior

Markets:

• CHF leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields up 5.4 bps to 4.628%
• Gold down 0.7% to $1,835.49
• WTI crude up 0.9% to $91.61
• Bitcoin up 5.3% to $28,319

It’s a new week, month, and quarter but we’re getting the same old brand new theme in markets. The US government has averted a shutdown for now and equities gapped higher while bond yields surged to start the day.

But as has been the case over the past few weeks, there is always only room for one to be right and surprise, surprise.. It was the bond market again.

Higher yields continue to be the bane for equities while proving to be the boon for the US dollar.

The greenback surged higher across the board with USD/JPY continuing to stay within touching distance of the 150.00 mark, despite verbal intervention efforts by Japanese officials.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0530 levels while GBP/USD is down 0.3% to 1.2150 levels currently. The commodity currencies aren’t able to find much relief as well amid a turn in risk sentiment during the session. AUD/USD is the laggard, down 0.6% to 0.6395 at the lows for the day now.

As higher yields remain the name of the game, stocks are finding it tough to sustain any rallies today – especially now after month-end and quarter-end are done with. US futures were up around 0.7% initially but have all but pared those gains with S&P 500 futures now sitting down 0.1% on the day.

In the commodities space, it’s also the same old story with gold dropping lower amid higher yields while oil is the only one able to go toe to toe with the dollar it would seem.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last week, the market remained under pressure as
the more hawkish than expected FOMC dot plot was
still fresh in everyone’s mind. The economic data continues to support the
soft-landing narrative with Jobless Claims showing
a solid labour market and Core PCE trending
downwards. The last day of the week, we got a small bounce across the board as
the market took a breather after the heavy selloff after the FOMC meeting. We
will see if it was just a pullback or the start of a new rally.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite rallied back above the key support formed
by the trendline and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Is this just a pullback and we’ll another selloff or the market is turning
around? The buyers are likely to keep piling in around here with a defined risk
below the support, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower
again to jump onboard and ride the fall into the 12274 level.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the bounce
back above the support got rejected at the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This is the resistance that the buyers will
need to break to start targeting the downward trendline around the 13800 level.
The sellers, on the other hand, will keep on leaning on the moving average to
position for further downside.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the price broke above the trendline, and the moving
averages crossed to the upside, which might be an early signal of a reversal.
The buyers should pile in here with a defined risk below the support to
position for a rally into the downward trendline around the 13800 level. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
support again to pile in and ride the selloff into the 12274 level.

Upcoming
Events

This week we have many key economic releases that will
culminate in the NFP report on Friday. Today, we will see the latest ISM
Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we will have the Job Openings data which led to a
strong rally the last time as the big miss was interpreted as a good thing due
to less labour market tightness and less hawkish Fed. On Wednesday, it will be
the time for the ADP report and the ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we will see
the Jobless Claims data, which continues to show a solid labour market. Finally
on Friday, it will be the time for the NFP report which is the only one the Fed
will see before its next rate decision.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not a good look for equities now as US futures pare almost all of its earlier gains, despite even getting help from a gap higher at the open. European indices are also now all in the red, with the Eurostoxx down roughly 0.3% currently. It once again highlights the fact that the bond market is in charge of proceedings and traders are back to focusing on that after month-end and quarter-end last week.

10-year Treasury yields are up nearly 6 bps to 4.63% at the moment and threatening a further push higher amid the breakout since the middle of last month. That in turn is also underpinning the US dollar, as the greenback leads the charge across the board.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is sitting higher on the day now, only trailing behind the Swiss franc. The greenback continues to be in a firm spot as Treasury yields are holding at the highs, with 10-year yields now nearly 6 bps to 4.63% on the day. With month-end and quarter-end flows out of the way, the dollar is starting to look ripe again as things turn back into its favour.

EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0540 and breaking back below its 100-hour moving average (red line), after having seen sellers defend a bounce at the 200-hour moving average (blue line) on Friday last week. This now sees sellers regain near-term control and will be poised to try and retest the 1.0500 mark again.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is also keeping near the highs for the day at 149.70 despite Japan intervention fears while AUD/USD is down 0.6% to just under 0.6400 again as risk trades are also starting to hit the skids now on the session.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last week, the market remained under pressure as
the more hawkish than expected FOMC dot plot was
still fresh in everyone’s mind. The economic data continues to support the
soft-landing narrative with Jobless Claims showing
a solid labour market and Core PCE trending
downwards. The last day of the week, we got a small bounce across the board as
the market took a breather after the heavy selloff after the FOMC meeting. We
will see if it was just a pullback or the start of a new rally.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
bounced around a key support at the
33622 level and pulled back into the blue 8 moving average before
falling back into the support. The sellers would have undoubtedly a better risk
to reward setup if the price rallied all the way back into the downward trendline where we
can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
For now, the sellers remain in control and the buyers will need to break some
key levels before turning the trend around.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a
strong resistance around the 34000 level where we have also the confluence with the
red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If the price
rallies into that resistance again we can expect the sellers stepping in with a
defined risk above the resistance to target the 32597 level. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally
into the trendline.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
Dow Jones seems to be consolidating around the 33622 support and we can expect
the buyers to keep piling in around here with a defined risk below the low to
target the trendline. If the price breaks below the low, the sellers should
jump onboard and ride the selloff into the next support around the 32597 level.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many key economic releases that will
culminate in the NFP report on Friday. Today, we will see the latest ISM
Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we will have the Job Openings data which led to a
strong rally the last time as the big miss was interpreted as a good thing due
to less labour market tightness and less hawkish Fed. On Wednesday, it will be
the time for the ADP report and the ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we will see
the Jobless Claims data, which continues to show a solid labour market. Finally
on Friday, it will be the time for the NFP report which is the only one the Fed
will see before its next rate decision.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.