• Emphasis was also paced on upward revisions to headline inflation projections
• A pause would have given rise to speculation that tightening cycle was over
• Not hiking could also send a signal of ECB being more concerned about the economy than inflation
• Deposit facility rate around 3.75% to 4.00%, as long as it was understood as being maintained for a sufficiently long duration, should be consistent to return inflation to target
• Decision between rate hike and pausing was a close call but tactical considerations played a role as well
• Full accounts

If anything else, this just further solidifies the notion that the ECB are done. While the rate hike was meant to try and leave the door open to tighten further, the messaging after certainly did not convince anybody.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• 2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25 mil bpd
• 2023 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.44 mil bpd
• Trims Q4 2023 world oil demand forecast by 50k bpd
• Trims Q1 2024 world oil demand forecast by 150k bpd
• Ongoing uncertainty in Europe and other economies are expected to impact oil demand for the rest of the year and next year

In case you missed it, the IEA also shared their latest view on the oil market earlier here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Best solution would be to have a common fiscal policy tool

Europe and the paucity of fiscal policy assistance. What else is new. This is something that has been repeated time and time again since the days of Draghi.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The market continues to march higher as the war in
Israel hasn’t spread to other Arab countries. In fact, yesterday the US intelligence has even reported that
Iran was surprised by the Hamas attack. This has weighed on Crude Oil prices
and eliminated the risk of a much bigger spike. Moreover, the US PPI report
yesterday beat expectations, but it was mainly energy driven and the market
brushed it aside as we got a big drop in Oil prices in October and even Fed’s Waller sounded
like a rate hike in November is not coming unless we get a very ugly CPI
report.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
has now erased almost half of the losses seen in the prior month as the market
continues to charge higher targeting the key resistance zone
around the 34000 level. That’s where we are likely to see the sellers coming
into the market with more conviction as they will have a better risk to reward
setup to position for another drop into the lows.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the break
above the minor downward trendline saw even
more buyers coming into the market as a key barrier got taken out. There’s now
a minor resistance defined by the previous swing high around the 33893 level,
but at this point we should see the price getting into the 34000 resistance
zone before seeing more bearish pressure coming into the market.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the divergence with
the MACD
signalled a loss of bearish momentum and led to a reversal after the break of
the minor trendline. The buyers yesterday leant on the red 21 moving average to
position for another bullish impulse into the 34000 resistance. A break of the
most recent high might see more buyers piling into the market but we are now
near the sellers’ area, so we are likely to see the bullish momentum weakening
and the MACD could be helpful to time the reversal. An ugly CPI report today
might already be enough for the sellers to reverse this entire rally.

Upcoming Events

Today we will get the most important report of the
week, that is the US CPI report. The market is likely to focus on the core
measures and react positively to lower than 0.4% monthly rate readings. At the
same time, we will also see the latest US Jobless Claims data which is an
important labour market report. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% while major European indices are posting gains of around 0.6% to 1.0% currently. This continues from the push higher yesterday as equities are looking to recover more ground after the drop in the last two weeks.

In terms of overall sentiment, tech stocks remain the beacon of hope in a sense and the Nasdaq chart exemplifies that:

It tested key trendline support over the last one week or so before pushing back to above its 100-day moving average (red line) yesterday. And buyers will be hoping for more follow through after the US CPI data today.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.