This builds on the earlier story here: USD/JPY retests highs for the year as dollar stands its ground

The pair now is up to a high of 149.15 as buyers seek a firm break of the January high around 148.80 on the daily chart.

Despite the push higher here, the dollar is only marginally higher against the rest of the major currencies bloc. Adding to that, 10-year Treasury yields are also just slightly higher by 1.9 bps to 4.117% on the day. So, this looks to be more of an isolated move more than anything else.

Sure, we did see some dovish commentary from the BOJ earlier here. But when you weigh that against the bank’s recent rhetoric, I don’t see it as being that much different. As of now, it is still all about the spring wage negotiations and then we’ll see how much the BOJ actually wants to change up the narrative.

In any case, we definitely can’t ignore the charts as traders. And the technical story is now suggesting that buyers are trying to push for a break. If so, the 150.00 mark will be the next critical point to watch.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a
  slight pushback against a March rate
  cut.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  that they want to see more evidence of inflation falling back to target and
  that a rate cut in March is not their base case.
• The latest US GDP beat
  expectations by a big margin.
• The US PCE came
  mostly in line with expectations with the Core 3-month and 6-month annualised
  rates falling below the Fed’s 2% target.
• The US NFP report
  beat expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  surprised to the upside with the new orders index, which is considered a
  leading indicator, jumping back into expansion. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI beat
  expectations across the board with the employment sub-index erasing the prior
  drop and prices paid jumping above 60.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence report came in line with expectations but
  the labour market details improved considerably.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in May.

EUR

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The recent Eurozone CPI came
  in line with expectations with the disinflationary process continuing steady.
• The labour market remains historically
  tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
• The Eurozone PMIs beat
  expectations on the Manufacturing side but missed on the Services one with both
  measures remaining in contraction.
• The ECB members recently have been pushing back
  against the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
• The market expects the ECB to cut rates in April.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD bounced
from the key support zone at
the 1.0723 level and pulled back into the blue 8 moving average. The
price was overstretched following the US NFP report as depicted by the distance
from the 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback
into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. We indeed
got a pullback into the moving average which is where we should start to see
some action on the lower timeframes.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair pulled
back to retest the bottom trendline of the falling wedge pattern
where we can also find the confluence of the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the previous swing low level. This is where the sellers should step in with
a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into the top trendline
around the 1.0850 level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price rejected the key resistance zone around the 1.0785 level and it’s now at
the upward trendline where we have also the red 21 moving average for
confluence. This is where the buyers are likely to step in with a defined risk
below the trendline to position for a break above the resistance. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures which is going to be last notable event of the week.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.