Well, he’s not wrong. If not for the Covid pandemic, it would have been unfathomable to imagine the BOJ being able to normalise monetary policy. The main worry for Japan now is that they might have gotten onto the ship a little too late.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• EUR/USD falls to fresh five-week low just under 1.0800
• Gold continues to knock on the door of the $2,200 level
• The bond market continues to cook in trading this week
• BOE’s Haskel: I think rate cuts are a long way off
• ECB’s Panetta: The conditions to start easing monetary policy are materialising
• Germany February retail sales -1.9% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• Germany March unemployment change 4k vs 10k expected
• UK Q4 final GDP -0.3% vs -0.3% q/q prelim
• Citi raises China 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.6% previously

Markets:

• USD leads, AUD and NZD lag on the day
• European equities mildly higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 2.4 bps to 4.220%
• Gold up 0.8% to $2,212.35
• WTI crude up 1.3% to $82.47
• Bitcoin up 2.7% to $70,730

The session started off with a quieter mood but picked up as the dollar nudged higher across the board. Other major currencies all have their own struggles and the greenback looks to be taking advantage.

EUR/USD is down to a five-week low, touching 1.0775 during the session. The euro is not helped by another poor German retail sales print for February. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.2% to 1.2620 but is off earlier lows of 1.2585 at least.

USD/JPY was calmer though, keeping little changed at around 151.20-30 levels as traders remain disinterested after the warnings from Japan yesterday.

Besides that, USD/CAD is up a touch to test 1.3600 and is keeping just below that now. And AUD/USD is down 0.6% to a three-week low just under the 0.6500 mark.

In the equities space, the mood is more tentative at best. European indices are following up on Wall Street gains yesterday but US futures are marginally lower today.

In other markets, gold is shining brightly as it pushes up above the $2,200 mark once again. Buyers are hoping that the break this time will hold better than it did a week ago at least.

As a reminder, it is going to be an extended weekend for a number of markets starting from tomorrow until Monday. Of note, Australia, New Zealand, and Europe in general will be off for the next four days with Canada also observing a holiday tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Gold has been pretty resilient this week as it
erased most of the losses from the prior week. The lack of important economic
data most likely played a role as well as the market didn’t have anything to
push it further to the downside. In fact, in the big picture, Gold should
remain supported as we head into the easing cycle, but in the short term, the
price action is driven by the repricing of rate cuts.

Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Gold erased
almost all of the losses from the prior week. From a risk management
perspective though, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup
around the 2142 level where we can also find the confluence of the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the 2142
level to position for a drop into the trendline around
the 2080 support.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
higher diverged with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback should be the support zone
around the 2142 level. A break below that zone should confirm the reversal and
trigger a selloff into the major trendline. For now, the price is supported by
the minor upward trendline where the buyers continue to lean onto to position
for new higher highs. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the
trendline to position for a drop into the support targeting a break below it
with a better risk to reward setup.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1
hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we had
an important level at 2200 which has been a strong resistance for the recent
bullish wave. The breakout triggered a rally as the buyers piled in to target a
retest of the all-time. If the price pulls back into the resistance
now turned support, we can expect the buyers to step in again. The sellers,
on the other hand, will likely lean on the all-time to position for a drop into
the 2142 support.

Upcoming Events

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures,
while tomorrow we conclude with the US PCE report and Fed Chair Powell. Strong
data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The precious metal is staying poised in trading today despite the dollar also sitting higher on the session. After hitting record highs last week, gold buyers have found it a bit tough to contest the $2,200 mark again so far. But we’re getting another run at that key level again at the moment.

If it breaks, expect that to potentially lead to a quick shoot higher for gold. I would argue that the onus is on sellers to keep price down, especially since gold is staying bid despite the dollar’s strength on the day.

Update (1025 GMT): Well, that was quick. Gold now threatens that particular break in a quick jump to $2,206 at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 finished the day
positive as the lack of bearish catalysts continues to support the market. In
fact, the path of least resistance remains to the upside as growth and
employment stay resilient, and the Fed continues to signal three rate cuts this
year even if inflation reaccelerates a bit.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500
has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it led to pullbacks into the red 21 moving average and
the trendline where
the dip-buyers kept on stepping in to position for the rallies into new highs.
The sellers might want to wait for the price to break below the trendline
before even considering going short in this market.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from
a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better setup around
the trendline where we can also find the confluence with
the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
invalidate the bullish setup and position for a bigger correction to the
downside.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price bounced on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level but didn’t fall all the
way back to the trendline. We can also notice that we have an important level
at 5230 where the price reacted to several times. If we get a retest of this
level, we can expect the buyers to step in to position for even higher prices.

Upcoming Events

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures,
while tomorrow we conclude with the US PCE report and Fed Chair Powell.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.