• USD/JPY consolidates after earlier nudge higher, awaits US CPI data
• BOJ reportedly considering March rate hike but outcome is still too close to call
• We will seek exit from easy policy when achievement of 2% inflation is in sight – Ueda
• BOJ to offer guidance on bond buying operation upon scrapping yield curve control – report
• UK January ILO unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.8% expected
• Germany February final CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim
• US February NFIB small business optimism index 89.4 vs 89.9 prior

Markets:

• CHF leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 0.8 bps to 4.096%
• Gold down 0.5% to $2,171.23
• WTI crude up 0.3% to $77.80
• Bitcoin up 0.1% to $72,200

It was a relatively quiet session and understandably so as markets are prepping for the US CPI data later today.

The Japanese yen was an early mover in Asia, losing ground following BOJ governor Ueda’s remarks. He failed to provide any hints of an imminent policy shift and that was enough to disappoint yen bulls a fair bit, with USD/JPY racing up from 146.90 to 147.30. The pair gained further to 147.60 before consolidating around 147.30-40 levels in European trading.

Other major currencies were more subdued, trading in relatively narrow ranges as the dollar held steadier. The pound is down slightly after a softer UK labour market report but not anything too outstanding.

In other markets, equities are cautiously optimistic while gold is seeing some profit-taking ahead of the main event. The latter is down 0.5% to $2,171 as its run of nine consecutive days of gains is under threat.

All eyes are now on the US CPI data in just under an hour to come. Just be mindful that we also do have a 10-year Treasury notes auction to come later in the day. That is another potential key risk event for the bond market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Google stock technical analysis video

Hey investors and traders, it’s Itai Levitan here, diving into Google’s stock as of May 12th, pre-market, but also looking well at Alphabet’s stock well beyond today. Within the GOOG stock technical analysis video below, we’re seeing a sweet re-entrance into the important value area of the year, and it’s now at an important junction, possibly eyeing a spot around $148, with a critical pitstop at $143.50. Let’s break down what’s shaking with Google, especially after its latest earnings and price action. 🚀📈

• Alphabet’S recent earnings insight: Remember, it’s not all about the big revenue numbers or forecasts. The real deal is how the stock behaves post-earnings. Seeing a stock drop 11.4% right after the bell? That’s a red flag. 🚩 BUT the post earnings correction might be over…
• Signs of a rebound at GOOG: After a tumble from January 30th to early March, Google’s stock found its footing, hinting we might have weathered the storm. That 15.5% slide? It’s like the market taking a deep breath, possibly setting up for a rebound. 💨🔄

GOOG stock technical takeaways:

• Bull Flag Sighting: Spotted a green channel that’s textbook for a bullish flag, with a neat breakout on the fourth try. This pattern suggests we’re gearing up for a rally. 🏁
• Trading Volume Tales: We’ve stepped into a hot zone—the value area high since the year’s start, with a heavy trade volume signaling a strong interest around the 143.5 mark. 📊

Junction jive:

• Pre-market action’s nudging us close to a critical junction at 143.50. If we break past this, it’s a clear runway to 148. But watch out, this line’s got eyes on it, and not just from me. It’s a liquidity hotspot, where some might dare to short, but a break through could turbo-boost the price. 🚀💥

Swing and hold strategy for Alphabet stock:

• If you’re riding the swing, these junctions are your playground. But for the buy-and-hold crowd, hitting that 148 mark might be a good time to pocket some gains, prepping for any potential dips back to the 143.5 comfort zone. 🏦💼

Looking big picture for GOOG:

1. In the wake of a 15.5% decline, Google’s strong position in generative AI with its Gemini (formerly Bard) platform makes it an attractive pick for swing traders looking for a potential short-term rally. The technical analysis suggests that, at their discretion, traders might find a promising buying opportunity here.
2. The tech landscape is shifting from hype-driven excitement to a more practical focus on innovation and efficient investment. Despite recent gains, Google’s stock has faced challenges. However, considering its robust foundation and long-term potential, especially in AI, it remains a compelling option for those focused on the bigger picture.
3. On the daily, if this upswing holds, we’re sketching higher lows, a bullish beacon. Yet, if 143.5 turns us away, it could mean Google’s not ready to lead the charge just yet, possibly dragging down the NASDAQ with it. 👀📉

Remember, Google’s hefty influence on the indexes an vise versa. Keep tabs on ES and NQ as well as over at ForexLive.com for more angles. And as always, trade wise and at your own risk! 🌐🔍 Happy trading, and let’s see how this unfolds! 🌟

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US PCE came
  in line with expectations.
• The NFP report beat
  expectations on the headline number, but the unemployment rate and the average
  hourly earnings missed notably.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin
  remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services
  PMI
  following suit but holding on in expansion.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations across the board.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

CAD

• The BoC left interest rates unchanged at
  5.00% as expected stating that further easing in underlying inflation is needed.
• The latest Canadian CPI missed expectations across the
  board with the underlying inflation measures falling.
• On the labour market side, the latest report beat
  expectations but we saw a fall in wage growth which is something that the BoC
  is watching closely.
• The Canadian PMIs improved in
  January although they remain both in contractionary territory.
• The market expects the first rate
  cut in June.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD broke
below the key trendline and
triggered a strong selloff as the sellers piled in to position for a drop into
the 1.3360 level. The pair recently pulled back into the moving averages from
overstretched levels and got rejected as the sellers stepped in again to target
the 1.3360 level with a better risk to reward setup.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a
strong resistance zone
around the 1.35 handle where we had also the confluence of the
50% Fibonacci retracement level
and the moving averages. This is where the sellers stepped in with a defined
risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a drop into the 1.3360 level.
The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the
resistance zone to start targeting the 1.36 handle.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action. We can notice that we have a key support
around the 1.3470 level. This is where the buyers are likely to step in with a
defined risk below the level to position for a break above the resistance with
a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the
bearish bets into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the main event of the week, that is
the US CPI report. On Thursday we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The pair caught a bid in Asia trading earlier today, following remarks from BOJ governor Ueda. He failed to provide any clues about an imminent policy change next week and that sort of disappointed yen bulls a little. USD/JPY moved up from 146.90 to 147.30-40 levels in the aftermath and has been stuck around there since:

It looks like traders are getting comfortable in consolidating price action for now. All before making their next move based on what the US CPI data has to offer later in the day.

In the bigger picture, the 100-day moving average at 147.65 will be a key resistance point to watch for USD/JPY. And in gauging the near-term bias, the 100-hour moving average – now seen at 147.75 – will also be one to watch. As such, the region around 147.65-75 will be crucial in determining whether sellers can maintain their stranglehold on the recent downside momentum.

As for key support levels to watch, the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 146.82 is a notable one on the daily chart. That comes before minor support and bids layered closer to 146.50 and then the 200-day moving average at 146.23.

Those are the key levels to watch in the technical play-by-play for USD/JPY this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The drop last month indicates a more tepid mood among small businesses in the US to start the year. The reading is the 26th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98, so that provides some colour to the data over the last two years. On the inflation front, only 21% of owners are expecting to raise their average selling prices and that is the lowest since January 2021. That should be some good news for the Fed at least. However, employment conditions are softening and that is one to keep an eye out for in the months ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.