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Fed must get ‚more aggressive‘ with rate cuts due to weakening jobs market, Canaccord’s chief market strategist says
The key events on the economic calendar in trading this week
It’s a new week, new month, and new quarter to kick things off today. But the Easter holiday is overshadowing markets and keeping things rather quiet, for now at least. North American traders will be greeted with a more muted mood as such but we are seeing gold stay hot and US futures keeping a little higher for now.
As we have come to know in recent times, economic data is what makes markets go round. So, here’s a look at what we can expect from the calendar in the days ahead.
1 April – US March ISM manufacturing PMI**2 April – RBA March monetary policy meeting minutes2 April – Germany March preliminary CPI2 April – US February JOLTS job openings3 April – Eurozone March preliminary CPI**3 April – US March ADP employment change**3 April – US March ISM services PMI**4 April – Switzerland March CPI4 April – US weekly initial jobless claims5 April – Canada March labour market report**5 April – US March non-farm payrolls, labour market report***
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis
positive note as the lack of bearish catalysts kept the market supported.
Today, the futures market opened higher following the good PCE report last
Friday when the market was closed for holidays. Therefore, we can expect to see
a positive gap at the open. Overall, the path of least resistance remains to
the upside with the main two risks for the bullish sentiment being a
reacceleration in inflation leading to a hawkish Fed or a hard landing.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. We continue to trade inside the rising wedge, and
it’s worth to keep an eye on it because if the price were to break below the trendline, the
sellers will have much more conviction to look for new lows with the base of
the wedge at 14477 being the ultimate target.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price recently bounced near the bottom trendline where we had the confluence of the
red 21 moving average. The
buyers keep on stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position
for rallies into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to wait for the price to break below the trendline before considering short
positions.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been consolidating beneath a counter-trendline recently. The futures
market opened higher today, so we might see the same for the cash market, in
which case the price would effectively break above the counter-trendline. The
buyers will likely pile in immediately to position for a rally into new highs.
Upcoming
Events
This week we get the release of many key economic data.
We begin today with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job
Openings. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI data. On
Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude with the US NFP report.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
GameStop’s Q4 Results. Traders React to Weak Earnings
Corp. is facing a whirlwind of challenges. The beloved stock among retail
traders took a hit early Wednesday morning, now down over 20% for the year and
nearly 50% in the last twelve months. This downturn follows the company’s Q4
earnings report and more job cuts. Let’s delve into the details.
Everyone’s favorite meme stock, GameStop (NYSE:GME), is
encountering significant selling pressure. The company disclosed its earnings
for the fourth quarter, revealing a 19% decline in revenue compared to the
previous year, resulting in a
15% drop in GME stock, now trading below $13 per share.
As shown
in the chart, just a day earlier, the company’s stock surged by 15%, marking
its best performance in several months. However, GameStop’s positive momentum
was short-lived.
GameStop
missed Wall Street’s expectations. During the fourth quarter, the company
reported revenue of $1.79 billion, falling below the expected $2.05 billion.
Earnings were also disappointing, with the darling of retail traders earning 22
cents per share, more than 26% below Wall Street’s forecast of 30 cents per
share.
Like
other retailers, GameStop hasn’t been immune to persistent inflation. The retailer witnessed a
decline in sales across its hardware and accessories categories, including
software and collectibles.
Hardware
and accessories sales, encompassing Playstations, Xbox, and Nintendo Switch
consoles, plummeted by 61% to $1.09 billion during the recent quarter.
Meanwhile, software sales, covering both new and pre-owned gaming software as
well as game downloads, dropped by 26% to $465 million. Even collectibles saw a
decline of 13% to $277 million.
Investors
are also closely monitoring the recent round of job cuts announced by the
company in a regulatory filing associated with this earnings release.
With a
current workforce of approximately 8,000 full-time employees and between 13,000
and 18,000 part-time employees, the company is undoubtedly burdened, and
various avenues are being explored to trim costs and manage cash flow. However,
additional layoffs are likely to lead to more store closures over time. The
company has transitioned from a state of abundant investment to one of
aggressive cost-cutting, which does not bode well for its growth prospects.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
AUD/USD stays sluggish near the 0.6500 mark for now
The pair is now settling down a bit after some rather back and forth action in March trading. It looked like buyers were poised for a strong breakout, only to get their wings clipped following a reversal to the initial reaction to the US jobs report last month here. Since then, sellers slowly took over and regained more technical control. And now, we’re seeing that translate to some pressure close to the 0.6500 level since last week.
The 200-day moving average (blue line) at 0.6545 is a notable resistance point for now. Keep below and sellers will continue to stay poised in testing the 0.6500 level again. There is some added downside support around 0.6485-88 and that is preventing a steeper fall in the pair for now. But a break below that sets up a retest of the February low of 0.6442 next.
Those are the technical parameters in play as we look towards the days ahead.
In terms of key factors impacting the pair, the US jobs report will once again be the one to watch – similar to a month ago. That and broader market sentiment will factor into the dollar side of the equation in the coming sessions.
As for the aussie, there isn’t much to work with as this month will not feature a RBA policy meeting. On the data front, it is a bit of a dud as well unfortunately. As such, the aussie will be influenced by the overall risk mood and spillover sentiment from the Chinese yuan again.
USD/CNY had recently broke above the key 7.20 threshold for the year but is now consolidating a fair bit near 7.23. If Chinese authorities allow the yuan to slide a bit more, that will in turn also weaken the aussie at the balance.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Dow Jones Technical Analysis
note as the lack of bearish catalysts kept the market supported. Today, the
futures market opened higher following the good PCE report last
Friday when the market was closed for holidays. Therefore, we can expect to see
a positive gap at the open. Overall, the path of least resistance remains to
the upside with the main two risks for the bullish sentiment being a
reacceleration in inflation leading to a hawkish Fed or a hard landing.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones is
trading inside a rising channel and continues to diverge with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much
better risk to reward setup around the lower bound of the channel where they
will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
position for a drop into new lows with the base of the channel at 37128 being
the ultimate target.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price recently bounced on the previous resistance turned
support where we had also the confluence with the red 21
moving average. The buyers stepped in to position for a rally into the upper
bound of the channel. The sellers will likely lean on the top trendline to
position for a drop back into the bottom trendline targeting a break below it.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price trades right around the all-time high and we might see the market open
higher today as the futures market gapped up at the open following the good PCE
report last Friday. Aggressive buyers could pile in immediately to target an
extension into the upper bound of the channel and fold as soon as the price
falls back below the 39886 level waiting to buy the dip around the lower bound
of the channel.
Upcoming Events
This week we get the release of many key economic data.
We begin today with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job
Openings. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI data. On
Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude with the US NFP report.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.