• February eurozone industrial production -6.4% vs -5.7% expected
• ECB’s Kazimir: ECB can cut rates in June given persistent fall in inflation
• ECB’s Rehn: Rates can be lowered in June if inflation slows as expected
• Donald Trump’s hush-money criminal trial starts today
• France’s Macron says will urge Israel not to reply with further escalation
• Germany’s Baerbock: Isreal should secure ‚defensive victory‘ with diplomatic means
• UK Prime Minister Sunak could announce Iran sanctions later today
• UK’s Cameron: We will consider more sanctions against Iran
• Tesla may announce large workforce layoffs this week
• ECB’s Simkus: Rate cut is also possible in July
• Swiss March price prices +0.1% vs +0.1% prior

Markets:

• Gold up $15 to $2359
• US 10-year yields up 7.8 bps to 4.58%
• WTI crude down 67-cents to $84.99
• S&P 500 futures up 27 points
• AUD leads, JPY lags

Yields are up but the US dollar is down. That’s the kind of rare dynamic you see when a geopolitical flight-to-safety bid is fading from the US dollar. That’s exactly what’s ongoing as markets calculate the the Isreali response to Iran won’t lead to war. That’s likely to be highly variable depending on what happens so it will remain a critical market focus and the latest reports say action is likely sooner rather than later.

The general theme in European trading so far has been a small improvement in the risk mood with local stock markets up from 0.5-1.0%, aside from the UK, which is down. The euro has edged higher with the pound doing a bit better.

The yen is struggling and hit fresh 34-year lows. There was some modest verbal intervention that caused a brief 15 pip dip but now the pair remains pushed up near 154 after steady bids in Asia.

Commodity currencies are higher despite a moderate decline in oil prices as the risk mood improves.

Overall, moves outside of the yen have been medium-sized to start the week but some of the excitement could be held back ahead of today’s US retail sales report, coming up shortly.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Israel’s war cabinet is still debating how to respond to Iran attack, according to CNN. They still remain on track to respond but the report says the ‚heated debate‘ is looking at military and diplomatic options.

Among the military options that are being considered, the war cabinet is considering an attack on an Iranian facility that would send a message, but would avoid causing casualties, one Israeli official said. But Israeli officials recognize that will be a difficult needle to thread, hence the ongoing debate.

The report says Netanyahu and fellow cabinet ministers have yet to make a decision.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB can cut rates in June given persistent fall in inflation, restriction can be gradually reduced
• ECB not committing to any policy path beyond June
• Economic recovery taking hold, will accelerate in H2

I don’t think there’s any doubt about the ECB plan from here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There are a chorus from the ECB teeing up a June rate cut.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The initial reaction to Goldman Sachs earnings has been positive with the shares up around 3%. Shares fell heavily on Friday in sympathy with JP Morgan earnings, which caused the sharpest earnings fall in JPM in 23 years.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.