Headlines:

• Swiss franc gains after inflation data beat
• Switzerland April CPI +1.4% vs +1.1% y/y expected
• BOJ accounts suggest Japan intervened in FX market on 1 May
• Japan top currency diplomat says cannot overlook excessive FX moves
• Eurozone Final April Manufacturing PMI 45.7 vs. 45.6 expected
• Swiss April Manufacturing PMI 41.4 vs. 45.5 expected
• Swiss March Retail Sales Y/Y -0.1% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior.
• US April Challenger layoffs 64.79k vs 90.31k prior
• OECD upgrades global growth forecast on stronger US outlook
• OPEC+ reportedly could extend voluntary cuts beyond Q2

Markets:

• CHF leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.6%
• US 10-year yields up 1.3 bps to 4.603%
• Gold down 0.8% to $2,298.84
• WTI crude up 0.6% to $79.52
• Bitcoin up 1.9% to $58,391

The session started with renewed focus in the yen again after Japan intervened once more right after the US market close. USD/JPY was sticking around 155.70-80 before slowly tumbling down now to just under 155.00 on the day. The pair is still up from the intervention lows of 153.00 though. But it looks like Japan is starting to chip at dip buyers‘ resolve on the week.

The dollar was steadier throughout amid some light pushing and pulling. But it was the franc that saw a decent move higher with USD/CHF falling from 0.9160 to a low of 0.9100 after Swiss inflation data came in with a beat. The pair is now trading around 0.9120, still down 0.4% on the day.

Besides that, other dollar pairs saw limited movement as we get settled into the pre-NFP lull.

In the equities space, US futures are looking to bounce back after the late selling yesterday. S&P 500 futures held gains throughout the session and are seen up 0.6% now.

In other markets, gold is being pressured lower as the post-Fed jump fades in a drop under $2,300 now. Meanwhile, oil is keeping just under $80 after the slide yesterday with offers at the figure level and the 200-day moving average at $80.09 keeping a lid on things.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Crude Oil has been falling steadily lately with analysts citing the peace deals in the Middle East. That looks like noise to me and the majority of the selloff might have been more about the combination of the de-escalation between Israel and Iran, and fears of the Fed opening the door for more tightening as that would be a headwind for demand on a forward looking basis.

Yesterday, the Fed decided to keep a neutral stance with strong pushbacks against a rate hike from Fed Chair Powell. Moreover, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI missed slightly with generally positive commentary, so the fears about some big slowdown should be set aside for the moment. This morning, we got a report saying that OPEC+ could extend the volunatry output cuts beyond Q2. Overall, the global growth impulse should continue as long as the data remains supportive and the central banks are not intentioned to hike anytime soon.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the price is now bouncing right around the key support zone in the $79-80 range and the long term trendline. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into the $90 region. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and start targeting the lows around the $68 level.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another downward trendline defining the current downward momentum. Now, if the price breaks above it and continues past the $80.30 swing level, we can expect the buyers to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into new highs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US-based employers announced 64,789 job cuts in April this year, which is just a little over 3% less than the year before. The sector with the most layoffs on the month was auto makers, primarily after Tesla’s announcement that it would slash 14,000 of its global workforce.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, the existing 2.2 mil bpd worth of oil production cuts are to run until June. Three sources cited in the report say that even though formal talks have yet to begin on the matter, an extension to the voluntary cuts are likely. But another source did say that OPEC+ is not yet leaning one way or the other.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The
2024 Bitcoin halving, which crypto investors have been expecting for four
years, has been finalised. The reward per block has been reduced from 6.25 BTC
to 3.125 BTC. The next cut will occur in 2028, with the reward reduced to
1.5625 BTC. The ultimate 64th halving will occur around the year 2140, which
will mean that all 21 million coins have been mined, and the issuance of new
Bitcoins will cease. Once this happens, the miners will have to find other ways
to make money in the crypto world.

How does halving affect the
Bitcoin price?

At
the time of writing, the Bitcoin exchange rate is around $57,000. Many analysts
expect the halving to catalyse further BTC price growth in the long term.

Historically,
with each new cycle following a halving event, the price of Bitcoin reached a
new high. For example, in late 2013, about a year after the first halving,
Bitcoin reached the $1,200 mark. The next market cycle peaked at $20k per
Bitcoin in late 2017 and went up to $69k in late 2021 before collapsing again.
However, in the last six months, the value of BTC has already risen by about
140%. In comparison, over the same period, the price of Ethereum, the second
most crucial cryptocurrency, has only increased by 85%.

‚The
current situation is unique: Bitcoin, for the first time, exceeded the previous
high before halving, reaching $73,000 in March 2024′, said Kar Yong Ang, Octa
Broker financial analyst. He added that demand from the U.S. bitcoin ETFs
launched in January was a vital factor in that price rise.

At
the same time, miners‘ revenues will drop by exactly half. As a result, they
will have to spend twice as much time and twice as much electricity to get the
usual amount of cryptocurrency. And since energy is not cheap, the weakest
players are expected to leave the market. In other words, we expect a supply
shortage against the backdrop of increasing demand.

Conclusion

The
halving of Bitcoin is a milestone in the history of the major cryptocurrency,
which shows its limited issuance and inherent mechanisms to protect against
inflation. Many believe that Bitcoin, with its deflationary model, is well
positioned to become a reliable store of value in an unstable global economy,
much like traditional gold—but only digitally.

If
we draw historical parallels, Bitcoin should enter an intense growth phase
around the end of 2024, after which it should exceed $200,000. The current
conditions are very different from those observed in 2020 because the demand
for cryptocurrency is extremely high due to ETFs, and its deficit is already
felt today.

Octa

Octa is an
international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide
since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various
services already utilised by clients from 180 countries with more than 42
million trading accounts. Free educational webinars, articles, and analytical
tools they provide help clients reach their investment goals.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network
of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of
educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local
communities.

Octa has also won more than 70 awards since its
foundation, including the ‚Best Educational Broker 2023‘ award from Global
Forex Awards and the ‚Best Global Broker Asia 2022‘ award from International
Business Magazine.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.