• US stocks rally into the close but close mixed. Dow closing above 40K for the 1st time.
• Silver extends rally to 6% — an image to define the precious metals rally
• Crude oil for July settled at $79.58
• Bank of America: The soft-landing scenario is unfolding
• Are we in a human-intelligence bubble?
• Don’t give up on the US dollar yet – TD
• Major earnings releases for the week starting May 20 highlighted by Nvidia.
• ECBs Vasle: Awaiting data and open to possibilities on rate path
• Fed Gov. Bowman monitoring data to assess if policy is sufficiently restrictive
• Canada April Teranet-National Bank house price index +5.65% y/y
• European equity close: Subtle selling to close out the week
• The USD is moving lower. How has the technicals helped in that decline?
• No comments from the Fed’s Waller on monetary policy
• US Leading Economic Index (LEI) M/M -0.6% vs. -0.3% expected
• 6% of global nickel output at risk as turmoil hits New Caledonia
• Kickstart the FX trading day for May 17 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• The USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar continues to hold alongside yields

The GBP is ending the US session as the strongest of the major currencies today. The CHF is the weakest. The USD is ending the day mixed with gains versus the JPY and CHF and losses vs the GBP, AUD and NZD. The USD was near unchanged on the day vs the EUR and CAD (-0.05%).

For the trading week, the trade weighted dollar index (DXY) fell -0.77% with the index moving to the lowest level since April 1 week. That index is also closing below its 100-week MA at 104.83, after 5 weeks of closes above that MA. That shifts the technical bias for the index to the downside (staying below is more bearish for the USD).

Looking at the main currencies vs the USD, the % changes of the USD vs each major currency this week shows mostly lower USD moves. The exception is the USDs gain of 0.30% gain vs the CAD.

• EUR, -0.93%
• JPY, -0.08%
• GBP, -1.43%
• CHF +0.30%
• CAD, -0.43%
• AUD, -1.40%
• NZD, -1.92%

The move lower in the USD this week got the fundamental shove from the tamer CPI, flat retail sales (lower than expected), and lower NY manufacturing index all released on Wednesday. A PPI number that was stronger but offsel by sharp revisions in the prior month opened the door for the downside when it was released on Tuesday.

Not congruent with the fundamentals is that Fed officials remain focused on higher for longer, whereas other countries are more likely to ease conditions earlier (especially the EU). That may ultimately slow the greenback’s declines at some point. Nevertheless, the EURUSD closed above its 100-day moving average (USD bearish) at 1.0819 for the first time since March 21 after the gains on Wednesday. The GBPUSD also closed above its 100-day moving average for its first time since April 9 on Wednesday (and stayed above).

The NZD and AUD are also moving away from its 100-day MA (dollar bearish). If the USD is to move back higher, the dollar needs to reverse back above the 100 day MAs on each of those currency pairs.

Looking at the US stocks today, the major indices closed mixed with the Dow industrial average leading the way. That index closed above a key milestone today above 40K, and also closed at a new record level. On Wednesday both the NASDAQ and S&P closed at new record levels and although higher on the week, are closing the day below those record closes (marginally).

Today:

• Dow industrial average rose 134.21 points or 40.34% at 40003.60.
• S&P index rose 6.17 points or 0.12% at 5303.26. It closed at a record 5308.14 on Wednesday
• NASDAQ index fell -12.35 points or -0.07% at 16685.97. It closed at a record 16742.39 on Wednesday

The Dow industrial average closed higher for the fifth consecutive week. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed higher for the fourth consecutive week.

US yields are closing the day the highs but are still down on the week after the run lower on the back of the CPI/retail sales on Wednesday. The yield did rebound on Thursday and Friday, however.

For today,

• 2-year yield 4.86%, +3.6 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.446%, +4.8 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.421%, +4.5 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.561%, +4.3 basis points

For the trading week,

• 2-year yield fell -4.3 basis points for the week, but was down -16.6 basis points at the week’s low
• 5-year yield fell -6.8 basis points for the week, but was down -20.0 basis points at the week’s low
• 10 year yield fell -7.8 basis points for the week, but was down -18.7 basis points at week’s low.
• 30-year yield felt -8.0 basis points for the week, but with down -17.3 basis point at week’s low.

Thank you for your support this week. Hoping you and yours have a happy and healthy weekend.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices pushed higher into the close and it seems the Dow closed not only at a record level, but also closed above 40K for the first time. The Dow is the least favored of the major indices, but it is the one that gets America excited. Headlines of Dow 40K means more on „Main Street“ than „S&P 5K“ or „Nasdaq17K“.

The Nasdaq and the S&P closed higher for the 4th week. Each of those indices also traded to new high closing levels this week with the S&P high close now at 5303.14. The Nasdaq new high close comes in at 16742.39.

A snapshot of the closing levels is showing:

• Dow industrial average rose or 0.34% at 40003.60
• S&P index rose 6.17 points or 0.12% at 5303.26
• NASDAQ index fell -12.35 points or -0.07% at 16685.97

The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -0.53 points or -0.03% at 2095.71.

For the trading week, the major indices all closed up over 1%

• Dow rose 1.24%
• S&P index rose 1.54%
• NASDAQ index rose 2.11%
• Russell 2000 rose 1.744%

For 2024, the broader NASDAQ and S&P index are battling it out for the strongest of the major indices (they are nearly up the same):

• Dow Industrial Average is up 6.14%
• S&P index is up 11.18%
• NASDAQ index is up 11.16%
• Russell 2000 is up 3.3%

Next week, the focus for the stock markets (and other markets) will be on Nvidia earnings which will be released after the close on Wednesday. Shares of Nvidia moved down by $-18.80 or -1.99% to $924.79 in trading today, but is up over 86.74% this year and just 1.9% from its all-time high close.

Although the price is up dramatically this year

• EPS are expected to come in at $5.58 which is up from $1.09 during the same quarter in 2023. That is a gain of 411% YoY.
• Revenues for Nvidia are expected at $24.556B vs $7.19B in the same quarter in 2023. That is an increase of 241%.

The stock price a year ago was at $305. With the current price at $933, that represents a rise of 205%. So all things equal, the gain in the stock- even at over 200% is supported by the gains in EPS and Revenues.

Shares of AMD this week moved up close to 8.25% this week, and is closing up 1.13% in trading today. The not-so-good news is the price is down -27.65% from its February high. For the year, AMD shares are up only 11.57% in 2024 (but they are doing better than Intel who’s shares are down -36.66% in 2024.

Micron shares are up 46.81% in 2024. Broadcom shares are up 25.0% this year.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF moved lower with the USD selling earlier today, and in the process moved down to test the 200 hour moving average at 0.90653. Support buyers leaned against the level and pushed the price back higher. The pair is trading between the 100/200 bar MAs on the topside at 0.9091 (and a swing area up to 0.90978), and the 200 hour MA below.

Absent any big move into the close, that is where the week will close out. Next week, the MAs above and below will be the support and resistance. A break of either target with momentum would either increase the bullish bias or bearish bias.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The silver bulls are a special kind but this weekend they will be celebrating.

Silver has broken out today, in a technical waterfall.

It started with the break of $30/oz and the February high, which is just above. That’s led to a rush of buying and short covering in a 6% rip to $31.37. That’s the highest since 2013.

Now there isn’t much standing in the way, technically. The mid-2012 high was $35.40 and that’s a reasonable target given the momentum and enthusiasm for precious metals in general. Gold today is slated to close above $2400 for the first time (and also on a weekly basis). It’s also just a few dollars away from an all-time intraday record.

For the gold bulls, I think the image of Putin and Xi hugging is as good as it gets. It underscores their determination to define a multi-polar world that’s not dominated by the US — or the US dollar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures redo winds that align our sewing at $79.58. At the $0.84 on the day. The selling price is near the high for the day. The low for the day was at $78.61.

For the trading week, the price is up 1.87%.

Technically, the price is trading between the 100-day moving average below at $78.57 (blue line), and the 200 day moving average (green line) above currently at $79.96.

This week, sellers had their shot with the tries below the 100-day moving average. On Wednesday, a new low going back to February 26 took the price to the low for the week at $76.72. but the price snapped back higher by the close. Inventory data this week showed a surprise drawdown on Wednesday helping to bottom the price.

The price currently between the MAs is more neutral technically, but with the sellers having their shots this week, the buyers have the control nod heading into the close and the new week. It would now take another move below the 100 day MA to wrestle the control back from the buyers.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.