At ForexLive, we work in the news business and I make it our mission to deliver news and analysis that can help people make money in financial markets, or at least understand what’s going on.

I’ve always gravitated towards financial news because it’s the one industry where there’s a scorecard. You can still get away with lies for a time (probably for too long) but if the profits or jobs don’t materialize, then there’s a price to pay. Ultimately though, you get paid to be right and by having a worldview that reflects reality.

Unfortunately, long-term thinking (and investing) are in decline. All news is geared to stirring emotions now and the strongest emotions are fear and anger. I can tell you, it’s much easier to generate traffic with those kinds of stories and headlines. What’s happened in the past 15 years is that everyone else has figured that out.

Angry and scared people click and it’s created some kind of doom-loop dopamine fix that far too many people are addicted to.

There are consequences. I’m amazed — though not surprised — by this chart from Ben Carlson today showing deteriorating views of local and national economies but a steady view of personal finances.

There are many similar examples.

Objectively, we can see that US unemployment is at historically low levels and yet people are pessimistic. It’s not only in the US either, though I think the toxicity of US political news is particularly bad.

Carlson argues that this is mostly symptomatic of the volume of news that people are consuming. We used to read newspapers perhaps once a day or watch an hour of somewhat balanced TV news. Now it’s all day long and the algos serve up headlines designed to drive engagement. Nine times out of ten, the engagement bait is fear and anger.

That’s bad news for all of us and dangerous for investors. What happens when truly bad times come? Will there be violence?

For investors it’s a trap too. Stories predicting crashes get 10x the attention than those predicting booms and those predicting ongoing moderate gains are ignored completely. In investing, the big money is always in the holding and in letting winners ride. Every headline you read makes keeping a calm head that much harder.

It’s not all downside though. Fearmongering in the news can lead to overshoots to the downside in markets as well and that will continue to create opportunities for people who have hardened themselves to the fear-cycle. But I’ll warn: it’s much easier to be fearful when others are greedy than it is to be greedy when others are fearful.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• US stocks end a solid week with strong gains. NASDAQ leads the charge.
• EURJPY gets close to 2008 high at 169.96. Break above and trading at 32-year-high
• Crude oil settles at $83.85
• Key event and releases for the trading week starting April 29
• Baker Hughes oil rigs down to 506 vs 511 last week
• European indices close higher for the day/week. UK FTSE 100 closes at a record level.
• Citigroup now sees 100 basis points of cuts this year from July
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2 growth 3.9%
• University of Michigan April consumer sentiment (final) 77.2 versus 77.9 estimate
• WH Brainard: Work to bring costs down are ongoing
• Kickstart the FX trading day for April 26 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
• US March PCE core inflation 2.8% YoY versus 2.7% expected
• The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Japanese yen volatility ramps up after Ueda presser

The JPY pairs all rose sharply (JPY lower) as JPY selling continued after the BOJ rate decision.

The comments from BOJ Ueda did not strike any fear in traders hearts, after saying that the JPYs fall could lead to higher inflation, but expressed no concerns about its fall.

After, an initial dip soon after the announcement to near 155.00, buyers quickly reentered. The USDJPY is extending to a new session high at 158.292 going into the last minutes of trading today. The high price from 1990 at 160.40 is within reach.

The JPY moved the most vs the AUD with a fall of -1.92%. It fell -1.69% versus a US dollar and -1.59% versus the Canadian dollar.

Looking at the JPY crosses:

• The AUDJPY traded to it’s highest level since April 2013
• The EURJPY traded at its highest level since July 2008
• The GBPJPY surpassed its 2015 high, and traded to the highest level since 2008.
• The NZDJPY traded briefly above its 2014 high price and to the highest level since July 2007
• The CHFJPY is trading to its highest level at least going back to 1973.
• The CADJPY traded to its highest level since December 2007.

Looking at the strongest to weakest of the major currencies, the AUD and the USD were the strongest today.

Today in the US session, core PCE for the month March was released and came in better than expectations. After the US GDP yesterday showed core PCE for the first quarter higher than expectations, the fear was for a rise of 0.4 – 0.5%. The actual increase for the month came in 0.3%. The year-on-year stayed unchanged at 2.8% which was 0.1% higher than the 2.7% estimate.

Coming off stronger earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet after the close on Thursday, stocks got another boost. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which rose over 2% on the day and by 4.23% for the trading week. That was the best week since October 2023. The S&P index rose 1.02% today, and its week gain of 2.67% is good enough for its best performance since October as well.

In the US debt market, yields are ending the day lower but off their lowest levels. Yields are still higher for the trading week:

• 2-year yield 4.995%, -0.3 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.6%, -2.8 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.665%, -4.1 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.776%, -4.3 basis points

For the trading week:

• 2-year yield up 1.0 basis points
• 5-year yield up 1.7 basis points
• 10 year yield up 4.2 basis points
• 30-year yield up 6.4 basis points

in other markets this week:

• Crude oil rose $1.42 or 1.73%.
• Gold fell $-54.06 or -2.26%
• Silver fell $-1.48 or -5.12%
• Bitcoin fell $-1038 or -1.60%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US major stock indices surged higher today led by the NASDAQ index which rose over 2.0%.

The catalyst was lower than anticipated core PCE data released by the Federal Reserve. That inflation measure is the favor measure of inflation by the Fed. Given the GDP day yesterday with the quarterly core PCE data higher than expectations, the fear was a surprise to the upside today. The MoM came in as expected 0.3%. There was rumblings of a +0.4 – +0.5% level after the data yesterday.

The final numbers today are showing:

• Dow Industrial Average average of 153.84 points or +0.40% at 38239.67.
• S&P index up 51.54 points or 1.02% at 5099.95.
• NASDAQ index up 316.14 points or 2.03% at 15927.90.

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 20.8 points or 1.05% at 2001.99.

For the trading week, the S&P and NASDAQ indices had their best week since October 30, 2023.

• Dow Industrial average rose 0.67%
• S&P index rose 2.67%
• NASDAQ index rose 4.23%
• Russell 2000 rose 2.79%.

Gains today were led by:

• Snap, +27.46% after beating earnings
• Alphabet, +10.22% after its earnings
• Super Micro Computers +8.9%. They will announce earnings next week.
• Nvidia, +6.18%. Nvidia won’t announce until later in May.
• Broadcom, was 3.84%
• Amazon, +3.43% (Amazon will announce next week)

The big losers today included:

• Intel, -9.2% after disappointing earnings.
• Exxon Mobil -2.60%. It too missed on earnings
• Paramount -2.60%
• Ford Motor -2.07%
• American Airlines -1.77%

Next week, the following companies will announce their earnings (* after the close):

Monday, April 29

• Domino’s Pizza
• Phillips
• Paramount*
• Logitech*

Tuesday, April 30

• PayPal
• Lily
• 3M
• McDonald’s
• Coca-Cola
• Amazon *
• AMD*
• Super Micro Computers*
• Starbucks*
• Pinterest

Wednesday, May 1

• Pfizer
• CVS
• MasterCard
• Marriott
• Qualcomm *
• Carvana *

Thursday, May 2

• Peloton
• Moderna
• Apple *
• Coinbas *
• Block *
• DraftKings *
• Fortinet *

Friday, May 3

• Hersey

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EURJPY has reached a high of 168.8942. That is down the price within the 100 pips of the high price going back to July 2008 at 168.941. Trading above that level would take the pair to the highest level since September 1992.

Traders may look to lean against the high ceiling area from 2008 with stops on a break above (see red number circles in yellow area on the chart above). However, if it is like the USDJPY, be careful.

The USDJPY moved above the 155.00 level this week (on Wednesday) and apart from a flush out immediately after the rate decision today, has been trending higher. The USDJPY price currently trades at 157.864

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The price of the WTI crude oil settled on Friday at $83.85. The price settled up $0.28 or 0.34%.

The high-price today reached $84.46. The low price was at $83.35.

For the trading week, the price is trading higher by $1.54 or 1.87%.

• The Baker Hughes weekly rig count showed a decrease in total rigs to 613 from 619, with oil rigs down by five to 506, and natural gas rigs moved down by one to 105.
• Concerns about a „Rafah operation,“ remains a potential geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, the tensions between Iran and Isreal have abated.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.