<p>Yesterday, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bocs-macklem-we-need-additional-info-before-we-consider-moving-to-more-balanced-policy-20221006/“ target=“_blank“>said </a>more data is needed before moving to shifting to an interest rate pause. Today he will get it, with Canadian jobs to be released alongside non-farm payrolls.</p><p>Unlike in the US, Canadian jobs have showed a material deterioration in the past few months. The data is notoriously volatile but there have been three months in a row of losses near 40K. For those who follow the US, a rule of thumb is to multiply by 10, so this would be the equivalent of three months in a row of non-farm payrolls of -400K.</p><p>The consensus today is +20.0K.</p><p>The unemployment rate has ticked up to 5.4% from 4.9% and is expected to stay there.</p><p>As always, the breakdown of full-time and part-time jobs is an important consideration for Canada. Last month there were 77..2K full time job losses, which was the worst since January.</p><p>The Canadian dollar has recently broken down to the lowest levels since May 2020 and the next leg depends on what the BOC does next. A quick pivot is unlikely as Macklem said yesterday that more rate hikes „will be needed“ and market pricing for a 50 bps hike on Oct 26 is 98%, which would take rates to 3.75%.</p><p>From there, a likely path is for the BOC to slow to 25 bps and then pause at year end. A big surprise in today’s jobs report could change the equation but if you’re trading USD/CAD, it will be challenging with the US report due at the same time.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>It’s an earlier than usual finish for me today, so I’ll leave you with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2673-us-market-open-tentative-trade-awaiting-nfp-and-fed-speak-for-fresh-pivot-guidance&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Newsquawk US Market Open Preview</a> and wish you all an amazing weekend.</p><p>Summary</p><p>European bourses are modestly on the backfoot, though have trimmed this slightly as the session progresses, in limited newsflow pre-NFP.</p><p>Stateside, futures are similarly contained and lie either side of the unchanged mark with NQ -0.1% modestly lagging amid yield upside</p><p>Typically tense pre-NFP trade has seen the DXY briefly dip below 112.00, to a 111.94 low, before regathering itself and holding marginally above the figure.</p><p>Core benchmarks dipped to lows amid the morning’s German data release, with Import Prices lifting again, though have gained some poise since in quiet trade.</p><p>WTI and Brent are off highs but still holding onto gains of around USD 0.50/bbl and are at the top-end of the week’s USD 86.35/bbl – 95.00/bbl parameter in Brent Dec’22.</p><p>Fed’s Mester (2022/2024) and Waller (voter) spoke overnight and added to the pivot-pushback</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian jobs reports, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Williams, Kashkari, Bostic</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-will-consider-whether-market-assessment-of-uk-economic-policy-has-changed-20221007/“>BoE will consider whether market assessment of UK economic policy has changed</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bofa-flow-show-bull-bear-indicator-remains-at-00-extreme-bearish-20221007/“>BofA Flow Show: Bull & Bear indicator remains at 0.0 (Extreme Bearish)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-natgasweatherandrepaltry-natgasweather-daily-report-20221007/“>The @NatGasWeather/@andrepaltry NatGasWeather Daily Report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/euro-zone-demand-surge-playing-increasing-role-in-excessive-inflation-ecb-20221007/“>Euro zone demand surge playing increasing role in excessive inflation: ECB</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-newsquawk-nfp-preview-looking-for-250k-payroll-additions-vs-315k-in-august-20221007/“>The @Newsquawk NFP Preview: Looking for 250k payroll additions (vs 315k in August)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-currency-diplomat-never-felt-a-limit-to-ammunition-for-currency-intervention-20221007/“>Japan Currency Diplomat: Never Felt A Limit To Ammunition For Currency Intervention</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/italy-retail-sales-fall-04-mm-in-august-20221007/“>Italy retail sales fall 0.4% m/m in August</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/french-trade-balance-1530b-forecast-14425b-previous-1454b-20221007/“>French Trade Balance: -15.30B (Forecast -14.425B, Previous -14.54B)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-halifax-house-prices-mom-01-previous-04-20221007/“>UK Halifax House Prices MoM: -0.1% (Previous 0.4%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/german-real-retail-sales-mom-13-forecast-12-previous-19-20221007/“>German Real Retail Sales MoM: -1.3% (Forecast -1.2%, Previous 1.9%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/german-industrial-production-mom-08-forecast-05-previous-03-20221007/“>German Industrial Production MoM: -0.8% (Forecast -0.5%, Previous -0.3%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-newsquawk-market-open-sentiment-sullied-as-fed-officials-push-back-on-incoming-pivot-20221007/“>The @Newsquawk Market Open: Sentiment sullied as Fed officials push back on incoming pivot</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/swiss-unemployment-rate-adjusted-21-forecast-21-previous-21-20221007/“>Swiss Unemployment Rate Adjusted: 2.1% (Forecast 2.1%, Previous 2.1%)</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>BoE will consider whether market assessment of UK economic policy has changed, says Ramsden</p><p>“One key consideration for the (BoE’s monetary policy committee) at its upcoming meetings will be whether the recent repricing of UK assets reflects a changed assessment by markets of the UK macroeconomic policy mix between fiscal and monetary policy,“ Ramsden said in a speech to the Securities Industry Conference 2022.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1578337433439338502?s=20&t=1RQFCJsRY74tUsB-8qcRwQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Reuters Note on this</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>BofA Flow Show: Bull & Bear indicator remains at 0.0 (Extreme Bearish) </p><p>Equities (USD) </p><p>US: outflows recommence, 3.4bln </p><p>Europe: outflow for the past 34 weeks, 0.6bln </p><p>Japan: inflows for the past two weeks, 1.5bln </p><p>Fixed Income (USD) </p><p>Gov’t/Tsy: inflows for the past seven weeks, 4.2bln </p><p>IG: outflows for the past five weeks, 12.5bln </p><p>HY: inflows for the past seven weeks, 0.6bln </p><p>Source: BofA</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The guys at NatGasWeather.com have once again allowed me to share with you their daily report </p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://natgasweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NatGasWeather.com__Daily__Report_Oct__7.pdf“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Report Here</a></p><p>7-Day Weather Summary (Oct 7-13): An early season cool shot will sweep across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast Fri-Sun w/showers and chilly lows of upper 20s to 40s. The rest of the US will be comfortable w/highs of 60s to 80s besides hotter 90s California and Southwest deserts. </p><p>Much of the US will again be comfortable next week as highs of 60s to 80s rules besides cooler 50s N. Rockies & N. Plains.</p><p>Overall, moderate national demand Fri-Sun, then light.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.