<p>Market picture</p><p>Bitcoin
plunged more than 6% to $22.0K early this morning. The plunge into this area
came as a market reaction to the potential bankruptcy of Silvergate. The news
triggered a wave of stop orders on fears that the situation could cause a
domino effect in the industry, as with FTX earlier in the day.</p><p>Technically,
the dip has pushed the price below its 50-day moving average, which does not
bode well for the short-term outlook, although this signal will only be
reliable at the close of the day. The intraday picture is one of tidy buying
after a brief dip. The overall moderately positive sentiment in the global
markets supports the buy-the-dip mood.</p><p>A return
above $22.8 an ounce before today’s close could spark further buying. Closing
near the lows would be an essential signal to spread fear throughout the crypto
market, suggesting a further drawdown to $19.7K in the coming weeks.</p><p>News Background</p><p>Shares in US
holding company Silvergate Capital Corporation, which owns crypto bank
Silvergate, plunged almost 49% on news of a delay in publishing its annual
report to the SEC. The company said it needed „additional time“ to
complete its audit.</p><p>Silvergate
Bank has announced that it may file for bankruptcy due to a massive sell-off
and an inability to repay its debts. Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency
exchange, has announced severing its financial relationship with Silvergate
Bank.</p><p>According to
Glassnode, retail bitcoin investors‘ purchases have outpaced coin issuance.
Investors with balances up to 1 BTC („shrimps“) and between 1 and 10
BTC („crabs“) over the past year have bought 105% and 119%,
respectively, more Bitcoins that were mined.</p><p>Ethereum
developers have set March 14 as the date for the Shanghai upgrade on the Goerli
test network. If the test network upgrade succeeds, the main network upgrade
could occur in the second week of April.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price started to lose momentum falling into the neckline <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at the 1.1839 price level. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are acting as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> and the sellers keep leaning on
them. </p><p>This suggests a bearish bias as
the economic data keeps coming in hot like the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report and the Fed is starting to lean on the more
hawkish side like <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-waller-fomc-may-need-to-raise-rates-beyond-decembers-51-54-central-tendency-view-20230302/“>Fed’s
Waller</a> suggested yesterday. </p><p>Today we will have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and if that beats
expectations we are likely to see more selling pressure with a possible
breakout of the neckline.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how the sellers leant on the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and pushed the price lower. This
is starting to look like a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>descending
triangle</a> pattern with the base at the 1.1922 level. </p><p>The sellers will eye a break
below that level to get even more conviction for a breakout of the neckline.
The buyers will need a break above the trendline to get the conviction to make
higher highs.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the key levels of the current range. We have the resistance at 1.2143 and
the support at 1.1922. Today will be all about the ISM report and the market
will go where the data will take it. </p><p>If the data beats expectations,
especially the “prices” sub-index, then we will see the sellers in full control
and the support giving way. If the data misses expectations, we will see a
rally towards the trendline. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The more positive risk mood now is to do with a retreat in bond yields today but it really feels like just another day in the office for European equities this year. As for US equities, it has been a bit of a struggle and even yesterday’s turnaround is hardly convincing of a major switch up in sentiment. In fact, it may even be more of a technical one:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The S&P 500 index caught a bounce off its 200-day moving average (blue line) with the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing higher from October also holding at 3,926 – at least for now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>US futures are slightly higher now but it is still early in the day. The ISM services index later could end up being a key event that either vindicates the current mood or breaks it apart. As such, even with equities holding some light optimism at the moment, I would say that it is not without a sense of apprehension and nerves as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In short, sentiment remains fragile for US equities even if we are seeing buyers look to build on yesterday’s advance. We’ll have to take stock of the market mood again after the US ISM services index later today.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the sellers failed to break decisively the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 32684 on the first try.
This may be just a pullback before more economic data confirms the new
downtrend. </p><p>We got some bearish stuff in the
past days with the “prices paid” sub-index in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report showing a jump back into expansion and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-waller-fomc-may-need-to-raise-rates-beyond-decembers-51-54-central-tendency-view-20230302/“>Fed’s
Waller</a> yesterday signalling that the Fed will go above their projected
terminal rate if the data keeps coming in strong. </p><p>Today we will have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and if that beats
expectations, especially in the “prices” sub-index, then we should see the
support breaking and more selling pressure coming in going forward. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been consolidating near the support as the market awaits
more economic data before confirming the bearish trend. </p><p>On the upside, we may see the
buyers pushing the price into the 33538 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> where we can also find 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level, but that looks unlikely unless today’s
report misses expectations. On the downside, we should see the sellers jumping
in strongly in case the report beats expectations with a breakout of the
support at 32684 very likely. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the more near-term price action. The buyers may manage to get to the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level before the PMI report which would act a strong
resistance and would be a gift for the sellers if the data beats expectations.
On the downside, more aggressive sellers may also enter at the breakout of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> in expectation that the support
won’t hold. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I don’t think we are going get much answers to that in European trading today. However, it certainly is a key spot to watch before the weekend and later in US trading – especially with the ISM services index in focus. 10-year yields in the US are down about 6 bps now to near 4.00% and that threatens to erase the jump higher yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In turn, this is seeing equities stay slightly more upbeat on the session and is continuing to keep the dollar lower on the day. USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 136.20 now in a steady drop from 136.65 after the handover from Asia.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.