<ul><li>Prior -13.3%</li><li>Market index vs 199.8 prior</li><li>Purchase index vs 147.1 prior</li><li>Refinance index vs 469.9 prior</li><li>30-year mortgage rate % vs 6.62% prior</li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the market has switched to a downtrend as depicted by the cross to the
downside of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a>. The sellers are in control, but the buyers have been fighting quite
hard lately as the momentum to the downside has been fading due to the market
awaiting March economic data to see if the February data was just a blip due to
seasonal factors or the Fed has indeed slowed its rate hike cycle too early. </p><p>Gold is sensitive to the
direction of real yields as when those go up the price of gold generally falls
and vice versa. The market repricing higher interest rates weighed on gold due
to hot economic data in February, so if we keep getting strong economic reports
in March, gold is likely to fall further. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the selling momentum was fading going into March as depicted by the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>divergence</a> between the price and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>. It will be crucial now to watch
the economic data, because technically the price now can rally all the way up
to the 1902 level as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> was breached. </p><p>The moving averages have also
crossed to the upside signalling a change in the short-term trend. Today we
have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Manufacturing PMI</a> and if the report comes out
strong, then this upward move from yesterday may have been just a fakeout, but
if the data misses expectations, we should see another rally. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the breakout from yesterday. The red long period moving
average and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1828/1830 will be the last
line of defence for the buyers. If the price falls below the trendline and the
support zone, then the breakout would translate into a fakeout and a bigger
selloff should follow. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Against the dollar, the pound briefly erased its gains for the day in a fall to 1.2013, before keeping around 1.2040 levels now – still up 0.2% on the day. But against the rest of the major currencies bloc, the pound is now the other laggard after Bailey’s remarks <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-bailey-further-rate-hikes-may-be-appropriate-but-nothing-is-decided-20230301/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. The bounce in GBP/USD was also perhaps more technical, with buyers holding at the key hourly moving averages:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is seen up 0.7% now to 0.8855 while GBP/JPY is falling back under its key daily moving averages, down 0.2% to 163.29 at the moment. For some context, the latter traded to as high as 164.50 earlier in the session.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I would caution against suggesting either that we are done with rate hikes, or that we will inevitably need to do more</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger; emphasis is ’slightly‘ in both cases</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>If we do too little on interest rates now, we will only have to do more later on</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Dude has to learn to pick a lane. You’re the governor of the BOE. Geez. I know they are put in a tough spot towards the end of the tightening cycle but c’mon, you gotta have more conviction than this.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
safely say that we got a successful breakout of the falling channel. The whole
channel was <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> and it’s likely that we may see
a big correction all the way up to the top of the channel at 0.96. </p><p>Before that though, the buyers
had to fight with a break of the 0.9287 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> and are now struggling at the
0.9400 handle. If they manage to firmly break the 0.94 level, then the 0.96
handle will the next target. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> switched to the upside signalling a change in trend and will act as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> for the buyers. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the buyers will have two strong support areas for another push to the
upside. The first comes at the orange <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> where the confluence with the
38.2% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level will give them a good spot to lean on with
defined risk. </p><p>In case the sellers manage to
break below the trendline, the next support will be at the 0.9287 level which
acted as strong resistance prior to the breakout. The buyers there will have
also support from the blue trendline and the daily red long period moving
average. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see a possible <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>double
top</a> pattern
right at the 0.94 handle. The neckline coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level, so a break below would give the sellers conviction for a
deeper correction to the 0.9287 level as it would be the measured target of the
chart pattern. </p><p>Today we have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Manufacturing PMI</a> and this is generally a market
moving report. Since the “good news is bad news” now due to the market
repricing higher interest rates from the Fed, we should see a rally in case the
data beats expectations and a bigger fall in case we see a miss.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.