<ul><li>Prior was +27.9%</li><li>Mortgage rate 6.20% vs 6.23%</li></ul><p>Mortgage News Daily had US 30-year fixed mortgages falling as low as 6.04% last week but not yet below the 6% level, which could spur some activity. US home builder shares have done well since October, suggesting there’s some optimism out there about housing, despite all the negative commentary.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-bears-quietly-plot-their-move-against-the-boj-again-20230125/“>Bond bears quietly plot their move against the BOJ again</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-futures-dribble-lower-as-risk-stays-on-the-defensive-20230125/“>US futures dribble lower as risk stays on the defensive</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-january-ifo-business-climate-index-902-vs-902-expected-20230125/“>Germany January Ifo business climate index 90.2 vs 90.2 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ifo-economist-german-economy-starting-the-year-with-cautious-optimism-20230125/“>Ifo economist: German economy starting the year with cautious optimism</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/switzerland-january-credit-suisse-investor-sentiment-400-vs-428-prior-20230125/“>Switzerland January Credit Suisse investor sentiment -40.0 vs -42.8 prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-pm-kishida-will-make-decision-on-next-boj-governor-based-on-future-economic-trends-20230125/“>Japan PM Kishida: Will make decision on next BOJ governor based on future economic trends</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-official-cites-kuroda-as-saying-boj-will-resolutely-stick-to-easy-policy-20230125/“>Japan official cites Kuroda as saying BOJ will resolutely stick to easy policy</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-downgrades-overall-economic-assessment-for-the-first-time-in-11-months-20230125/“>Japan downgrades overall economic assessment for the first time in 11 months</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>AUD leads, NZD lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.7%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 3.439%</li><li>Gold down 0.7% to $1,923.81</li><li>WTI crude up 0.1% to $80.21</li><li>Bitcoin down 1.2% to $22,621</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It was a bit of a quiet session but there were some decent market moves, as risk sentiment turned from being cautious to being put on the defensive.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Microsoft warned about a slowing sales outlook and that weighed on tech stocks with Nasdaq futures holding lower by 0.6% at the end of Asia trading, before things turned worse in European morning trade. The mood in equities is perhaps also not helped by stronger CPI data in Australia and New Zealand as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>S&P 500 futures are now down 0.7% with Nasdaq futures down 1.1%, as we also see European indices sit lower on the session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In FX, the dollar benefited as a result with the euro and pound nudging slightly lower against the greenback and USD/JPY falling from 130.20 to 129.70 levels at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The aussie remains the lead gainer, after having pushed to 0.7120 against the dollar after the CPI data earlier in the day before falling back to 0.7080 levels currently – still up 0.5%.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Even though we also did saw a strong NZ CPI data, the kiwi is the laggard today with NZD/USD still facing a rejection of 0.6500 it seems. The pair is down 0.5% to 0.6470 currently, near the lows for the day as the sour risk mood isn’t helping.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>All eyes are on the Bank of Canada decision up next now, and that could really be a big one – not just for the loonie, but for broader markets as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The Washington Post <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/25/lael-brainard-national-economic-council/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>reports </a>that Biden is close to naming the next head of the National Economic Council and that Fed vice chair Lael Brainard „has emerged as a top contender“, according to three sources.</p><p>Brainard would replace current NEC director Brian Deese, who they said is expected to leave soon.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The central bank tightening cycle is in the final stretch of reaching the end zone now. While some major central banks are still trying to convince of a more hawkish stance, others are closing in on the end of rate hikes. And the Bank of Canada is arguably one of the latter.</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/preview-why-the-bank-of-canada-could-be-the-first-to-the-sidelines-20230124/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Preview: Why the Bank of Canada could be the first to the sideline</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>They are expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps today but markets are bracing for the potential for a surprise decision, in which they might announce a pause to the tightening cycle. After all, Macklem & co. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-bank-of-canada-isnt-afraid-to-surprise-the-market-20230124/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>isn’t one to shy away from surprises</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The thing about today’s decision is that the Bank of Canada could lay down a marker as the first major central bank to have turned hawkish and then announce a pause to its tightening cycle.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Even though this particular change in policy stance is very much expected among all the major central banks (except the BOJ) at some point, it is the very fact that we’re witnessing the first signs of change and that could spell something big for broader markets. Adam provided a good preview on that above, so watch out in case we do get some big market moves later in the day – not just on the loonie.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes as tech continues to lead the downside, with Nasdaq futures down 1.2% and Dow futures down by 0.6% currently. The drop is also putting a drag on European indices, with the DAX and CAC 40 both also down by 0.6% on the session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s not much in European morning trade to have caused the fall but it comes after Microsoft’s slowing sales outlook earlier in the day and also stronger Australia and New Zealand CPI data – which may cause markets to be a bit more skeptical about the peak inflation narrative.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is slightly higher now with AUD/USD also seeing gains trimmed from 0.7110 earlier to 0.7080 levels now. GBP/USD is also seen down 0.3% now to 1.2285, sitting at the lows for the day.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.