<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-sp-global-services-pmi-444-vs-468-expected-20221216/“>US S&P Global services PMI 44.4 vs 46.8 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-williams-were-well-on-the-way-to-where-we-need-to-be-20221216/“>Fed’s Williams: We’re well on the way to where we need to be</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-mester-recent-inflation-data-is-welcome-news-20221216/“>Fed’s Mester: Recent inflation data is welcome news</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-daly-we-are-resolute-and-focused-on-bringing-inflation-down-20221216/“>Fed’s Daly: We are resolute and focused on bringing inflation down</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-from-feds-daly-i-dont-know-why-markets-are-so-optimistic-on-inflation-20221216/“>More from Fed’s Daly: I don’t know why markets are so optimistic on inflation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rig-count-5-to-620-20221216/“>Baker Hughes oil rig count -5 to 620</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/italys-central-bank-forecasts-73-inflation-in-2023-20221216/“>Italy’s central bank forecasts 7.3% inflation in 2023</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-november-new-housing-price-index-02-vs-02-prior-20221216/“>Canada November new housing price index -0.2% vs -0.2% prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-oct-wholesale-trade-21-vs-13-expected-20221216/“>Canada Oct wholesale trade +2.1% vs +1.3% expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $16 to $1793</li><li>US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 3.48%</li><li>WTI crude oil down $1.80 to $74.31</li><li>S&P 500 down 43 points to 3852 (-1.1%)</li><li>JPY leads, CHF lags</li></ul><p>The market continued to digest the Fed and ECB stance on Friday and the message is a souring of the mood, leading to selling of equities and the euro on slowing growth prospects. </p><p>USD/JPY fell as the bond market stridently expresses the view that the Fed won’t hike as high as it’s promising, with the terminal rate in Fed fund futures at 4.84% and US 2s lower than at the start of the week. USD/JPY fell after the S&P Global US PMI showed an economy slowing rapidly. It sank as low as 136.30 then bounced to 136.67 to wrap up the week. That move reversed all of yesterday’s rally in US trading.</p><p>Cable continued to struggle, falling a quarter cent on the day even as the US dollar felt some pressure elsewhere. There was some good news with energy prices falling on better weather forecasts but it didn’t translate.</p><p>Putting all the pieces together today was challenging with quad witching in stocks and year-end fast approaching. Next week will be all about flows but we did get a taste today of Fed messaging and officials pushed the idea of higher rates but not with the enthusiasm of Powell.</p><p>Oil may be exemplifying the intensifying fears on the global economy as it fell as much as $4 from high to low today. There was a surprise reprieve as the US announced purchases for the SPR starting in Feb. The 3 million barrels is a small amount but it would signal some support for crude.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>What a fakeout in stocks this week. The bulls were feeling great after the soft CPI and hopeful that Powell would tip the nod towards easier policy. Instead, he leaned in hard to hikes and that was followed by an even-more hawkish lean from Lagarde.</p><p>Now the bond market is signaling an unnecessary recession and US stocks posted an ugly outside day on the chart.</p><p>On the day:</p><ul><li>SPX -1.1%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -1.0%</li><li>Russell 2000 -0.7%</li><li>DJIA -0.9%</li></ul><p>On the week</p><ul><li></li><li>SPX -2.1%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -2.8%</li><li>Russell 2000 -1.9%</li></ul><p>There isn’t much to like on the S&P 500 weekly chart after this week’s outside reversal:</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>In the past year we’ve seen the implosions of:</p><ul><li>NFTs</li><li>Meme stocks</li><li>Crypto</li><li>Tech stocks</li></ul><p>With that, you would think retail traders would sober up. Instead, they’ve switched from hard liquor to crack cocaine in the of ultra-short-dated equity options. Here’s a chart from Goldman Sachs showing that 44% of SPX volume in the third and fourth quarter (so far) has been in options with less than 24 hours to expiration.</p><p>Today is quad witching so it makes me skeptical of price action but there’s also a bigger picture story here and it ends badly.</p><p>Whatever happened to investing?</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Seeing tentative signs that inflation rises are stabilizing; not calling a peak </li><li>Expects Fed to hike by more than its median forecast</li><li>It will take time for inflation to ebb</li></ul><p>Mester spoke on Bloomberg TV. </p><p>The Fed is going to spend the next month pushing back against the bond market. We’ll see who wins but the bond market is showing a lot of confidence so far.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>It was a busy week and one of the things I missed was a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/die4859YAs“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>report </a>from the Philadelphia Fed’s research department that questioned non-farm payrolls numbers.</p><p>The report focuses on the March-June period and compares the comprehensive quarterly data against the usual monthly release. It’s not a small change:</p><blockquote>In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES [non-farm payrolls report] estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period. </blockquote><p>Said another way, non-farm payrolls were nearly nil from March-June.</p><p>Now some of those jobs appear to have been pushed to earlier periods so it’s not as bad as it seems but if the Fed is concerned with trajectory, then there might be more slowing than the monthly jobs reports have indicated.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.