<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Market hopes were dealt a bit of a setback as negative COVID-19 developments in China is weighing on the mood today, keeping equities slightly on the backfoot. In turn, the dollar is out ahead as the lead gainer among major currencies as it seeks to build on the recent recovery momentum from the latter stages of last week:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-technicals-still-sorting-its-feet-out-for-now-20221121/“ target=“_blank“>Dollar technicals still sorting its feet out for now</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-moves-higher-as-dollar-sentiment-continues-to-recover-20221121/“ target=“_blank“>USD/JPY moves higher as dollar sentiment continues to recover</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-on-the-mend-in-european-morning-trade-20221121/“ target=“_blank“>Dollar on the mend in European morning trade</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-tide-is-turning-back-in-favour-of-the-dollar-again-20221121/“ target=“_blank“>The tide is turning back in favour of the dollar again</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is still early in the week and markets are still finding its feet but bear in mind that trading interest this week will be cut short amid the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For equities, the S&P 500 index remains a key chart in dictating what might come next. It is either we get a firm break above 4,000 and the 61.8 Fib retracement level or a drop back below the 100-day moving average (red line):</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The change in near-term sentiment for the dollar isn’t just confined to EUR/USD so far today, as pointed out <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-on-the-mend-in-european-morning-trade-20221121/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. The dollar is higher across the board and we are also starting to see some shifts in the near-term bias to be more bullish for the greenback in some dollar pairs. Here’s a quick glance at things.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY is also now breaking past its own 200-hour moving average (blue line) at 141.10, as buyers look to seize back near-term control. At the same time, they are also pushing past the 100-day moving average at 141.00 so this is looking more and more like a return towards 145.00 potentially for the pair – at least from a technical perspective.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>AUD/USD has also dipped back below its own 200-hour moving average (blue line) at 0.6650 and is down 0.9% to 0.6615 currently. That indicates sellers are back in near-term control after the rejection at the key technical resistance pointed out <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-technicals-still-sorting-its-feet-out-for-now-20221121/“ target=“_blank“>here</a> earlier.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>One pair that has been slightly ahead is USD/CAD as buyers held a defense of the 100-hour moving average (red line) last week before pushing past the 200-hour moving average (blue line) again after the first attempt stalled at 1.3400. With oil also on the softer side, the loonie is failing to impress as price now looks to solidify a move back above 1.3400 – after the bounce off the 100-day moving average <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-technicals-still-sorting-its-feet-out-for-now-20221121/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Watch the following technical analysis for Russell 2000 (30 second video):</p><p>The area close to 1800 seems to be a ‚magnet‘ pulling the price to it. If and when it gets to the double support shown within the video, watch for shorts to cover and early bulls to take some Long bets. That spot introduces an attractive reward vs risk ratio for the bulls. However, if the price continues to fall, then we might have a confirmed bear flag broken to the downside.</p><p>Will Russell be getting worse as shown below by Bloomberg, or will it stop close to 1800? </p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“ data-lang=“en“ data-theme=“dark“><p lang=“en“ dir=“ltr“>Russell 2000 Capitulates: The small cap-heavy index is down 20% from November highs, on track to enter bear market. More than one-fourth of the index’s components had hit 52-week lows on Friday – the highest reading since March 2020 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/2AT7Djugqg“>https://t.co/2AT7Djugqg</a> <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/vmzyA7EveF“>pic.twitter.com/vmzyA7EveF</a></p>— Bloomberg (@business) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/business/status/1485691117513412608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>January 24, 2022</a></blockquote><p>I will be looking for a Long if Russell 2000 futures gets close to 1800. Why? At that price, my stop would fairly close but my profit target would being further out, and, thus, interesting. Watch the double support on the technical chart as shown in the video. Also watch for possible comments below. In any case, this is all just my opinion, and not a trade recommendation.</p><p>Trade Russell 2000 futures at your own risk. See <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis“>ForexLive.com technical analysis for addtitional perspectives</a>.</p><p>As per the Nasdaq futures (NQ) on the hourly timeframe, price might be breaking down this potential bear flag. If so, that might be adding or synchronizing the pressure on the Russell 2000, as well.</p><p>Chart by TradingView, where one can get additional <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/russell2000/“>technical analysis ideas on the Russell 2000 futures (RTY)</a>.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at forexlive.com.

<p>Even if you don’t follow global politics, you probably know about the war in Eastern Europe. These events have influenced various financial assets, oil in particular. In this article, FBS analysts explain what’s going on with crude prices and how the situation may change in the weeks ahead. </p><p>Europe strikes back</p><p>After the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the illegal annexation of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, new international sanctions joined those of 2014 after the annexation of Crimea and the non-implementation of the Minsk agreements.</p><p>The sanctions focused on reducing Russia’s income to prevent it from further financing the war through its primary source of income, the Oil Industry. The steps taken by the Western nations include prohibiting exporting to Russia any technology, machinery, and goods related to energy, transport, aerospace, and other industries, preventing the updating and modernization of national industries.</p><p>A new package of sanctions adopted by the European Council in June and October 2022 enters into force on December 5. For refined petroleum products, the measures start in February 2023. </p><p>What do the new sanctions on Russian oil mean?</p><p>As agreed with the G7, the EU now bans the purchase, import, or transfer of oil and certain oil products from Russia and shipping to third countries of such products originating in or exported from Russia. The exception occurs if the oil or derivative products are purchased at or below a pre-established ceiling price.</p><p>Additionally, an insurance limitation is included since shipping, insurance, technical, or financial assistance companies will not be allowed to provide services to tankers carrying Russian crude unless it is sold under the new price standard. </p><p>What is the estimated price cap?</p><p>According to analysts‘ estimates, the price of the Russian oil standard should settle at around $60/b. However, Russia has made it clear that it has no intention of selling at such a price. As a result, the country will have to develop new supply chains as alternatives to the new rules. </p><p>What will happen before December 5?</p><p>On October 31, the US clarified that any cargo of Russian origin loaded before December 5 and discharged before January 19 is not subject to the maximum price. As a result, there will be a margin for maneuvering to adapt to the new rules. </p><p>What is Europe doing?</p><p>Although 90% of Russian oil imports to Europe are carried out by sea, the remaining 10% will have a temporary exception since this oil arrives through the Druzhba pipeline to those EU member states that depend on Russian supply and have no viable alternative options. </p><p>Europe has already undertaken a considerable change in its oil trade. The region diversified its suppliers, preferring European sources to not depend too much on any single country. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other Middle Eastern nations are already sending more and more crude to Europe because their Asian market share has been declining due to the influx of cheap oil from Russia. </p><p>What awaits crude oil prices in 2023?</p><p>The change in supply chains will provide even more stability and confidence in the European benchmark crude from the North Sea, Brent. The price may decline if supply exceeds demand, as China might reduce its reliance on Western <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/c/crude-oil/“ target=“_blank“ id=“e1f1b115-23d2-48c8-98c8-24024dada457_2″ class=“terms__main-term“>crude oil</a>.</p><p>Considering this, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that demand growth will slow to 1.6 million bpd in 2023 from 2.1 million bpd this year. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Brent crude (<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://fbs.com/trading/specs/xbrusd?utm_source=finance_magnates&utm_campaign=fin_articles&utm_content=oil-after-new-sanctions“>XBRUSD</a>) has been consolidating in a demand zone. From this area, FBS analysts expect in the short term either a bullish rebound to $96 or a bearish continuation below $87.90. The next demand zone is between $82 and $80. Brent may then remain at those lower levels, as demand will seek the lowest price option, preventing the repeat of the recent price escalation.</p><p>Who will benefit from new sanctions against Russia?</p><p>According to data from S&P Global, shipowners from the EU and the G7 accounted for 55% of Russia’s crude exports from the Baltic and Black Sea in September. In addition, shipping insurers in the G7 countries cover around 95% of the global tanker fleet. </p><p>Because of the sanctions, Moscow will have to turn to India, China, and the Persian Gulf to alleviate the shortfall of ships. However, assembling a fleet will take time. While that happens, Russian production may diminish constrained by available shipping capacity, likely increasing pressure on Russia to sell at a limited price to meet Asian demand. </p><p>According to Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, „China and other buyers of Russian oil will now have more leverage to negotiate lower prices.“ She further stressed that „India can continue to buy as much Russian oil as it wants, even at prices above a G7-imposed price cap mechanism, if it moves away from Western shipping, financial, and insurance services bound by the G7 oil cap.“</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>There will be another rate hike in December</li><li>The scale of it should continue to make progress towards the levels needed</li><li>But platform for considering a very large hike, such as 75 bps, is no longer there</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The more you’ve already done on a cumulative basis, that changes the pros and cons of any given increment</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That’s quite a dovish endorsement and will just add to the dollar recovery sentiment we are seeing today, considering that the Fed remains arguably the most hawkish central bank in town still for the time being.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.